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Model Output Discussion 13/11/13 >

chionomaniac

By chionomaniac
in Forecast Model Discussion

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted

Has anyone else got that sinking feeling regarding the upcoming ecm. Think i might watch it roll out from behind the sofa. If it does follow the ukmo then i would really expect the other models to fall in line with it by tommorows runs. But hopefully it wont let us down? will it????????

ive got that feeling aswell!!my prediction is it wont be as good as the gfs but not as bad as the ukmo!!here goes..........
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MR EXTREMES Experienced

MR EXTREMES

Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
Posted

tbh no shovels will be needed all the models showing eye candy into fi would not be ice age but certainly could help our chances into December to much focus to our north not enough to our south Europe is nowhere near cold enough so cold rain after the arctic out break cold surface air there after if the eye candy models are correct.

 

more complications to come to be honest now we need a feed of cold air into Europe our best chance will be a ne flow sustained ne flow dragging in the deeper cold or more arctic outbreaks.

 

although the charts are showing exceptional chance but much beyond fi is where the real chances will be.

but mid December jan feb even march we would be game on.

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dhillcrest Rookie

dhillcrest

Posted
  • Location: Mold, NE Wales, 125m asl
  • Location: Mold, NE Wales, 125m asl
Posted

Oh BTW the GFS control gets even better. I'd defy anyone to draw a better chart than that. Quite possibly the most stunning retrograde/reverse zonal flow I've ever seen.......ever

 

Posted Image

I know I've got a post count of 'bugger all' but I've been following the winter threads for a few years and have never seen a chart that looks like that.

 

So why's it so good for cold?

 

Is it because the cold has been drawn from the East for so long? The amount of 'blue' penetrating into the Atlantic? The wind strength?

 

It all looks a bit flat and I thought flat was bad.

 

genuine questions - just a bit ignorant.Posted Image

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shedhead Rising Star

shedhead

Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER
Posted

Has anyone else got that sinking feeling regarding the upcoming ecm. Think i might watch it roll out from behind the sofa. If it does follow the ukmo  then i would really expect the other models to fall in line with it by tommorows runs. But hopefully it wont let us down? will it????????

Not saying that the UKMO is any better or any worse overall than GFS or ECM at 144hrs, but when it's not fully onboard I start to get concerned and tonight's run is not good in the latter stages.  Will be very interesting to see where ECM goes across the next hour, but how ironic (and frankly typical) will it be if the much maligned/abused GFS is the only one still fully onboard the protracted cold train come 7pm??

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

Here she goes 72hrs..(ecm).

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Joe Levy Community Regular

Joe Levy

Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Exeter, Devon
Posted

ECM t72 doesn't look like the high is going up as well as previous run

 But that may be because on the previous run (at least on meteociel) the time after that is about 12 hours ahead. Too early to say for certain

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

I know I've got a post count of 'bugger all' but I've been following the winter threads for a few years and have never seen a chart that looks like that.

 

So why's it so good for cold?

 

Is it because the cold has been drawn from the East for so long? The amount of 'blue' penetrating into the Atlantic? The wind strength?

 

It all looks a bit flat and I thought flat was bad.

 

genuine questions - just a bit ignorant.Posted Image

 

Pressure high around Greenland, jet well south, low pressure well south of the UK.....this translates to a -NAO. What you see is a retrograde pattern (a reversal of the normal flow across the UK i.e west to east). The flow is east to west instead, which in this instance has allowed a deep pool of cold upper air to be scooped across the UK from the NE. Add to this strong winds and plenty of moisture (as the N Sea is still fairly warm) and you have all the ingredients for a severe spell of wintry weather.....which is what that chart shows.

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andymusic Accomplished

andymusic

Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
Posted

I know I've got a post count of 'bugger all' but I've been following the winter threads for a few years and have never seen a chart that looks like that.

 

So why's it so good for cold?

 

Is it because the cold has been drawn from the East for so long? The amount of 'blue' penetrating into the Atlantic? The wind strength?

 

It all looks a bit flat and I thought flat was bad.

 

genuine questions - just a bit ignorant.Posted Image

 

easterly direction normally drawn off a cold continent - therefore uk ends up with much lower temps and also a good set up for copious amounts of snow

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Great Plum Rising Star

Great Plum

Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 78m asl
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 78m asl
Posted

A lot has been said about the ukmo 144hrs chart... I thought in the past that this was said to be unreliable and hasn't Ian Ferguson mentioned that the net office rarely use it?

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Severe Siberian icy blast Experienced

Severe Siberian icy blast

Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
Posted

I know I've got a post count of 'bugger all' but I've been following the winter threads for a few years and have never seen a chart that looks like that.

 

So why's it so good for cold?

 

Is it because the cold has been drawn from the East for so long? The amount of 'blue' penetrating into the Atlantic? The wind strength?

 

It all looks a bit flat and I thought flat was bad.

 

genuine questions - just a bit ignorant.Posted Image

Hi mate , it's because of the high latitude blocking around Greenland , it's giving strong northeasterly winds going all the way back to Arctic , that would bring lots of snow and strong winds causing blizzards , with low pressure out to east , along with very cold upper air coming over a mild North Sea , it had the ingredients to be an extremely snowy spell.
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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

Nice gradient forming..

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted

Any chance somebody could attach an ECM chart, I'm too lazy to look myself. Posted Image

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted (edited)

T120

 

Posted Image

 

 

GFS for comparison.

 

Posted Image

Edited by SN0WM4N
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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

Couldn't be better per frame!!

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

Some Bom  bon amis

 

Posted Image

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

ECM 12Z looks to have good continuity from its 00z run. energy seems flatter in the greeny area than the gfs. we shall see what happens re the west atlantic low over the next couple of frames. that will dictate the tone of the rest of the run.

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