Model Output Discussion 13/11/13 >

[bryan629]

some interesting tweets from Joe B today....

 

 

Joe Bastardi â€@BigJoeBastardi 5h

Well here we go again. Germany temps to tank early again this year. Brazilian meteogram for Berlin pic.twitter.com/U31zOGi5aT

 

 

Joe Bastardi â€@BigJoeBastardi 43m

MJO bias correction on ECWMF taking into the phase 8, which in December is very cold pic.twitter.com/B7dHj8oDqN

 

not sure if this relates to Europe as I have no idea how to read MJO charts.

 

 

 

 

[Frosty.]

At the end of the day, mogreps is the most crucial piece of the jigsaw, it must be looking good right now. : -)

[Cheshire Freeze]

GEFS ensemble mean at 144 hours

 

 

Almost unanimous support for the op there......however we've all seen the pitfalls of the GEFS.

 

Why, every year, do we go through the same routine trauma with the NWP?

Edited November 14, 2013 by CreweCold

[Mucka]

GFS control looking decent.

 

 

The rest of the ensembles are quite a spread but generally better than MetO, how about these as trend setters for the mid term?

 

[swfc]

The meto isnt a disaster really is it!Its just less dramatic than previous.Id love to see gfs come off but it does this every winter!!! 

[Cheshire Freeze]

The meto isnt a disaster really is it!Its just less dramatic than previous.Id love to see gfs come off but it does this every winter!!! 

 

It's not a disaster, no.....but as Nick always says, the more faffing around there is getting to the decent synoptics, the more opportunity there is for something to go wrong along the way. I'd rather just go from a to b without going round the detour route first!

[bluearmy]

UKMO isnt much different to this morning re the west atlantic. if anything, the energy appears to be headed se rather than ne as per ecm.

 

joe b's blog re the ecm mjo is irrelevant - very low amplitude

Edited November 14, 2013 by bluearmy

[AWD]

The NAVGEM at 144 hours looks pretty decent;

Respectable push north there of the high!

[swfc]

It's not a disaster, no.....but as Nick always says, the more faffing around there is getting to the decent synoptics, the more opportunity there is for something to go wrong along the way. I'd rather just go from a to b without going round the detour route first!

Me too cc but it does seem that in our neck of the woods nothing is ever simple .I still think the pv is still that bit to strong to our nnw to allow the pressure to build atm but as ever in fi it looks so easy!

[Mucka]

Personally I would settle for GEM's take.

 

[swfc]

The NAVGEM at 144 hours looks pretty decent;

image.jpg

Respectable push north there of the high!

Where is the navgem model,metiociel???

[Ian Brown]

We shouldn't get carried away with the GFS. The northerly blast is coming and the UKMO shows the far more likely end game for it with a toppling of some sort arriving from the West at T144 - expect the ECM to be much more like this than the GFS.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Personally I would settle for GEM's take.

 

 

Yep, I'd be perfectly happy if that is what actually transpires come day 6.

We shouldn't get carried away with the GFS. The northerly blast is coming and the UKMO shows the far more likely end game for it with a toppling of some sort arriving from the West at T144 - expect the ECM to be much more like this than the GFS.

 

Is the day 6 UKMO chart the end game though Ian? I'm not so sure it is, even if it isn't as pretty as the GFS.

[SomeLikeItHot]

GFS ensemble mean seems to be convinced of a developing Greenland high

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

GFS ensemble mean seems to be convinced of a developing Greenland high

 

 

The control runs IS 2010 reborn. Cold air filtering in from the NE over time

 

[SMU]

Its a full house of models tonight - that's of course barring the UKMO

 

The 12z GFS, the GFS control, NAVGEM & now the GEM-

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0&carte=1&archive=0

 

The GEM is probably the BEST run out of them all-

 

However the UKMO concerns me... I think I will car park it for now- awaits ECM.

 

S

[radiohead]

12Z GEM goes for an Iceland High. Looks good until you swtich to the 850 temps. Hopefully that will change.

 

Edited November 14, 2013 by radiohead

[Mucka]

GFS ensemble mean seems to be convinced of a developing Greenland high

 

 

That is not really what that mean suggests to me though granted mean charts can be interpreted differently. I would say that suggests a mid latitude block with possible Icelandic high personally.

Edited November 14, 2013 by Mucka

[Cheshire Freeze]

Its a full house of models tonight - that's of course barring the UKMO

 

The 12z GFS, the GFS control, NAVGEM & now the GEM-

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0&carte=1&archive=0

 

The GEM is probably the BEST run out of them all-

 

However the UKMO concerns me... I think I will car park it for now- awaits ECM.

 

S

 

Could we still not get to cold from the UKMO day 6 chart though Steve?

[SMU]

^^ its cold & complicated but isn't as good- but could just mean the high flattens off to scandi on a slightly lower amplitude-

 

ITS ALL ABOUT THE SAUSAGE!

 

As long as it lands north of the UK then that's fine.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Oh BTW the GFS control gets even better. I'd defy anyone to draw a better chart than that. Quite possibly the most stunning retrograde/reverse zonal flow I've ever seen.......ever

 

[SMU]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-348.png?12

 

GFS CONTROL is of course the 2010 redux

[shaky]

Its a full house of models tonight - that's of course barring the UKMOThe 12z GFS, the GFS control, NAVGEM & now the GEM-http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0&carte=1&archive=0The GEM is probably the BEST run out of them all-However the UKMO concerns me... I think I will car park it for now- awaits ECM.S

hopefully ecm will save the day!!dont you think that the ukmo would show similar synoptics but just a day or two later steve??

[Frosty.]

The northerly blast is coming and the UKMO shows the far more likely end game for it with a toppling of some sort arriving from the West at T144 - expect the ECM to be much more like this than the GFS.

I don't think we can assume anything, what we do know is it's going to turn much, much colder with frost, ice and snow during the first half of next week, reliability goes out of the window beyond that point, there is growing support for a retrogressing pattern with our weather coming from the northeast instead of the usual sw'ly 3000 mile mush.

[The Northern Ramper]

Yep, I'd be perfectly happy if that is what actually transpires come day 6. Is the day 6 UKMO chart the end game though Ian? I'm not so sure it is, even if it isn't as pretty as the GFS.

To me it looks like the end of the first quarter.