South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 08/12/13

[Due South]

Hi Guys and Girls. This is well worth a listen. Here is the link.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p01lswz0/Paul_Hudson_Weather_Show_14_12_2013/

 

Listen from 42 mins into the programme.

[john pike]

'

 

again fi thankfully

 

we are under there somewhere

[blackprince]

 

Hi Guys and Girls. This is well worth a listen. Here is the link.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p01lswz0/Paul_Hudson_Weather_Show_14_12_2013/

 

Listen from 42 mins into the programme.

 

Should chuck this in the mod thread  he he  Mr PC is well known and his views and methods give rise to great debate,  each to their own and he makes money from it so some agree with his sun related predictions.  He does get it right sometimes but then again so do I 

[john pike]

fi again

 

this has to be one the most stormy runs from gfs i have ever seen

 

thankfully our concern is fi so hope it stays there

 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=216&code=1&mode=0&carte=0

[Sussex Jules]

Hope so John, worrying even so. Let's hope it disappears in future runs. Well until Boxing Day then it can do what it likes.

[john pike]

hi sussex

 

i will worry when i show the fax updates showing this

 

until then its fi

 

as you say though them charts are worrying re wind which i hate

 

lets see where ecm goes shortly

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=313&y=151&run=12&runpara=0&col=1&type=1&ext=1

 

thankfully these pressure charts are over the place

 

fi = 23rd

[Sussex Jules]

Ooh John you have had your crayons out again

[john pike]

one thing re these

 

they do look cooler now

[Due South]

Should chuck this in the mod thread  he he  Mr PC is well known and his views and methods give rise to great debate,  each to their own and he makes money from it so some agree with his sun related predictions.  He does get it right sometimes but then again so do I 

He gets it right more than sometimes Black Prince. Thats the reason why Paul Hudson had him on the show. Pauls been looking at his results for years now.

[Steve C]

'

 

again fi thankfully

 

we are under there somewhere

I seriously hope FI means fantasy only. I think somewhere near (UK, Ireland, close Continental Europe) is going to cop something nasty in the next 10 days / fortnight. Hope it's not us, selfish though that sounds.

[Keraunic]

What is FI?

[Sussex Jules]

What is FI?

Fantasy Island means too far out to be certain on what the models are showing

[john pike]

 

just a slight difference on ecm

Edited December 16, 2013 by john pike

[dubmuffin]

Evening all. 11 degrees and wet here. Got to say, this morning was perhaps the most miserable of the year. Dark, wet, and windy, not cold and not warm. I was really not pleased at having to get up for work! At least we have something to look forward to, a week off work, days getting longer (just), Christmas dinner - and perhaps a storm to liven up the forecasts

Edited December 16, 2013 by dubmuffin

[Summer of 76]

I seriously hope FI means fantasy only. I think somewhere near (UK, Ireland, close Continental Europe) is going to cop something nasty in the next 10 days / fortnight. Hope it's not us, selfish though that sounds.

My concern is if those charts came off the winds would be going as fast a F1 car

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

 

run through this run

 

if you can work out these lows after the 23rd you are better at this than i am

Edited December 16, 2013 by john pike

[Captain Shortwave]

Evening all

The output looks absolutely hideous, just heavy rain and strong winds near enough all the time over the festive period. Thanks CFS, for several weeks you had this consistently wrong  

[john pike]

heres another possibilty on christmas day if the jet shifts back further north

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

this is why i will not call this yet

 

too far away to be sure yet

[Jason T]

Northern Hemisphere and the atlantic, Believe thats our storm incoming to the left.

 

[Bluebreezer54]

The radar suggests a wet and at times windy night ahead.

[john pike]

Heres the fax update for now

 

tonight

 

wet

 

not cold

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

tomorrow

 

a variable windflow but mainly south westerly

 

rainfall

 

 

very heavy am

 

clearing the far north of the region by around lunchtime

 

still raining south of the region for most of the day but only light after lunch

 

temps

 

feeling chilly after today around 6-8 degrees

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

tomorrow night

 

again a mainly south west flow

 

still got that pesky drizzly rain to the far south east of the region (maybe the odd heavier burst or 2)

 

 

temps

 

when the rain clears it looks like some low single digit temps overnight for all

 

fog looks like a hazard on wednesday morning

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

wednesday

 

a strong south west wind

 

rainfall

 

dry am

 

heavy rain en-route pm

 

temps

 

around 10 degrees

 

but will not feel it

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

wednesday night

 

a very cold north west to west wind

 

watch the strength here as the isobars could get quite tight to the east of the region

 

would not be surprised to see 50-60 mph gusts from this set up

 

rainfall

 

very heavy and will be more noticeable with the wind

 

temps

 

around 7-8 degrees

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

thursday

 

a breezy westerly flow but not too strong

 

note we are 528 dam air here

 

rainfall

 

some showers around but i will call mainly dry here at present

 

working on the fax chart

 

temps

 

cold again around 6-8 degrees

 

if awake will update the rest later

[SteveCoops]

Average wind speed here has dropped to 0mph, gusting to 1.6mph, so it looks like this rain is here to stay for hours yet! Not particularly heavy at 0.6mm/hour but totals might be decent.

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Heres the fax update for now

 

tonight

 

wet

 

not cold

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

tomorrow

 

a variable windflow but mainly south westerly

 

rainfall

 

 

very heavy am

 

clearing the far north of the region by around lunchtime

 

still raining south of the region for most of the day but only light after lunch

 

temps

 

feeling chilly after today around 6-8 degrees

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

tomorrow night

 

again a mainly south west flow

 

still got that pesky drizzly rain to the far south east of the region (maybe the odd heavier burst or 2)

 

 

temps

 

when the rain clears it looks like some low single digit temps overnight for all

 

fog looks like a hazard on wednesday morning

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

wednesday

 

a strong south west wind

 

rainfall

 

dry am

 

heavy rain en-route pm

 

temps

 

around 10 degrees

 

but will not feel it

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

wednesday night

 

a very cold north west to west wind

 

watch the strength here as the isobars could get quite tight to the east of the region

 

would not be surprised to see 50-60 mph gusts from this set up

 

rainfall

 

very heavy and will be more noticeable with the wind

 

temps

 

around 7-8 degrees

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

thursday

 

a breezy westerly flow but not too strong

 

note we are 528 dam air here

 

rainfall

 

some showers around but i will call mainly dry here at present

 

working on the fax chart

 

temps

 

cold again around 6-8 degrees

 

if awake will update the rest later

Hi John,

 

interesting that all the country is under that 528 (or less) air.  Could be colder than anticipated, but I doubt if it will be cold enough for snow South of North Wales or the Pennines.

 

Will feel cold though

[tadpole]

Can't tell you how nice it is to be able to hit the Thanks button again on JP's forecasts.

Useful tip; Don't spill a mug of tea over your router  apparently it's the sticky sugar that causes the death of it. But better to have happened now than during a snowy period.

Off to wade my way through 10 days worth of emails    .