South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 03/01/14

[dwalton]

A very heavy shower just passed through Crawley. It woke me up!

[Storme]

Some torrential downpours here. Think there was thunder as doggie was running around in a panic about 20 minutes ago but I was asleep. Waiting for a state of the roads update from OH, when he gets into work.

[SteveCoops]

Rain alarm just gone off with a big heavy blob of rain on the radar heading this way.

[hernebaylooby]

Morning, Blergh back to school runs todayand its not looking like nice walking weather.. theres a surprise!

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

Rain alarm just gone off with a big heavy blob of rain on the radar heading this way.

 

What weather station do you have Steve?

 

I got a Vantage vue for Xmas which is yet to be set up, I'm wondering what kind of alarms I've got to look forward to 

 

Just started raining here now!

 

5 mins and it's your turn lol

Edited January 6, 2014 by Essex Easterly.

[Charltonkerry]

Heavy shower in dirty Dartford at the moment. Out of interest Dirty Dartford isn't known as that because of the pollution caused by the crossing, it's from an ancient poem:

Dirty Dartford

Dirty people

Bury their dead

Above the steeple

There are various versions of this, but basically because the town centre and church is in a valley, then going back the only place to Bury people was at the top of east hill, hence the poem, I believe this is unique in this country, but no doubt be proven wrong:-)

[Coast]

Morning all.

 

Another blustery night and yet another gusty/rainy day in store it seems

 

75/80 km/hr wind gusts up through the Channel but still some high ones further inland:

 

 

Rain through the day, but GFS has it confined mainly to the South coast:

 

 

Met Office more progressive and look what they have for London in a couple of hours:

 

 

That's pretty significant and I'm surprised at the disagreement at such short range - especially if you look at the radar or satellite output:

 

 

 

Horrid again really, but tentative signs that it could subside a little later in the week. Let me go look at the convective stuff as there are rumours of thundery weather in places later today.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

That band of rain is really intensifying.. Absoulty coming down here!

[Chloe]

Heavy rain back to work nice to see the dog has jumped in my side of the Bed!

[alexisj9]

Morning all.

 

Another blustery night and yet another gusty/rainy day in store it seems

 

75/80 km/hr wind gusts up through the Channel but still some high ones further inland:

 

 

Rain through the day, but GFS has it confined mainly to the South coast:

 

 

Met Office more progressive and look what they have for London in a couple of hours:

 

Met O rain.jpg

 

That's pretty significant and I'm surprised at the disagreement at such short range - especially if you look at the radar or satellite output:

 

 

NW radar.jpg

 

Horrid again really, but tentative signs that it could subside a little later in the week. Let me go look at the convective stuff as there are rumours of thundery weather in places later today.

wow the met office one looks a little like a super cell.

[chilly milly]

Morning all!  What a wet and windy night we had here.  Not sure what time it was but the wind and rain was horrendous earlier this morning.

 

Currently dark, dry, and with a temp of 9.7c

 

Have a good day all, whatever you are doing.

[snow raven]

Urggh sums up my morning back at work today. And that is not just the weather, but a couple of smelly blokes that have just got on the train.

Roll on retirement!

[Coast]

wow the met office one looks a little like a super cell.

 

Going by the ESTOFEX forecast this morning, we are in for a busy day of weather and detect the note of humour in their first line, they seem to be a s battered as we are!

 

 

 

Storm Forecast

Valid: Mon 06 Jan 2014 06:00 to Tue 07 Jan 2014 06:00 UTC

Issued: Mon 06 Jan 2014 00:28

Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued for parts of Ireland, Scotland, UK, France, Benelux, Germany, Sweden and Denmark mainly for severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado risk.

 

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

 

What a big surprise ... we have to talk about an intense extratropical cyclone north of Ireland, which shifts to the NE during the forecast. Once again, phase diagrams show a rather impressive warm-seclusion with that one. This cyclone has already seen its peak strength and the ~ 950 hPa pressure around 06Z should increase by 10-15 hPa/24h. Nevertheless, a winter-like intense wind field is forecast along its southern fringe, affecting Ireland, UK, Scotland, parts of France, Germany and Benelux all the way into Denmark and S-Sweden.

 

This setup resembles past ones with modest (200-500 J/kg) offshore SBCAPE and very strong shear, especially in the lower troposphere. Enhanced convection remains bound to the left exit regions of numerous 40-50 m/s mid-layer jet streaks and to numerous more or less pronounced impulses, which will be embedded in the brisk westerlies. Expect an isolated to scattered thunderstorm potential for all of the highlighted areas through the complete forecast period....especially along the westward facing coastal areas of Ireland and UK. Severe wind gusts will be the main hazard next to an isolated tornado risk. Aforementioned mid-layer waves will be discussed a bit in respect of more organized line structures to the S and E of UK/Ireland:

 

One wave exits UK during the late morning hours, crosses the S/C North Sea from W to E and approaches Denmark from the west during the afternoon/evening hours. Especially offshore areas (North Sea) and Denmark/S-Sweden should see adequate support (forcing, shear and instability) for organized showers/isolated thunderstorms with a severe wind gust and isolated tornado threat. Any line-up of storms could result in a swath of severe wind gusts. 

 

Further south, over the Netherlands and NW-Germany, forcing will be weaker, but should still help to initiate deeper updrafts. Severe gusts will be the main hazard. In case of short line segments of storms or a bad handling of instability in current model outputs, an isolated tornado risk can't be ruled out (1 km shear aoa 15-20 m/s and 300 m^2/s^2 SRH-1). As past events showed, good forcing could offset meager looking CAPE parameters, especially in global model data. However, placement along the anticyclonic shear side of the mid-layer jet and attendant warmer mid-layers lowers confidence in more widespread/long-lived convection quite a bit. 

 

Another wave affects N-France during the afternoon/evening hours and Benelux and C/N Germany during the overnight hours. This event has more positive signs for the development of an organized line of storms. Increasing mid-layer wave height results in a coupled mid/upper jet configuration with an healthy looking vorticity lobe racing east/northeast. This impulse overspreads a tongue of rather moist low/mid-level air with storm motion vectors aoa 70 kt. There are signals in the BL wind field of numerous convergence zones, which will be aligned near parallel to the background flow. Current thoughts are that an organized line of deeper convection (LEWP-ish) evolves over N-France with a rapid motion to the NE. Bowing line segments (severe to damaging wind gusts) and isolated tornadoes are forecast. Would also not be surprised about marginal/isolated large hail with strongest cores. With mixed model signals however, confidence in such a scenario is not yet high enough to go with a level 2 area. Even without a line of storms, enhanced convection should support downward mixing of 20-25 m/s winds from 850 hPa.

 

 

I think we may escape the thunder and lightning, but that's only after a brief glimpse at GFS:

 

 

 

 

 

Still plenty to be thinking about though.

[Keraunic]

Mornin each.............it's raining......and grey........and bleak. 'Sigh'

Have a good day, all.

[Guest]

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-7.97,32.45,324

 

i put this on last night but incase anyone didn't see, this is great for zooming in or moving the globe around 

[Jimmyh]

Got to say morning all yuk yuk yuk standing under a shelter at tulse hil train station with the rain absolutely hammering it down. Windy raining and dark yes it is 8.17 erm please can ask fir a New Years promise NO MORE rain. Feels like I have been getting wet on way to work since beginning of December

Wait not sure if I am imagining it little patch of blue sky

[Jimmyh]

I kid u not the blue sky lasted all of 3 minutes even darker and harder rain in Mitcham lovely

[Guest]

first day back at work today... have to leave in ten minutes and its so dark and miserable... apparently 6th January is the most depressing day of the year and  now i understand why

[Steve C]

Morning all.

 

Heavy rain here, half an hour ago, has now stopped. I'd hoped it meant a shower band had passed through and we'd now have a few hours of dry weather. Sadly, the radar still shows stuff to pass through.

 

Regarding the huge waves, I wish I was in the southwest now, or on the southern or western coast of Ireland: Those waves must be something to behold. :o - obviously observed from a respectfully safe distance.

[terryall]

If you want to see what it's like at Lands End have a look at this web cam. www.houselbay.com

It's the cam for the Housel Bay Hotel .

[legrandefromage]

With the reference to 1994 US winter, if you watch Reel2Reel's video, you'll catch glimpses of a frozen New York

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dyx4v1QFzhQ

[Keraunic]

If you want to see what it's like at Lands End have a look at this web cam. www.houselbay.comIt's the cam for the Housel Bay Hotel .

Ooooh! That's great. I love rough seas...and they don't come much rougher than at Lands End, Cape Cornwall or The Lizard. 'Sigh' I wish I was there.

[Snowangel-MK]

Yellow Warning of Rain for London & South East England :

 

Hampshire, Surrey, Greater London, Kent, Medway, East Sussex, Portsmouth, Southampton, West Sussex, Brighton and Hove & Isle of Wight

 

 

Yellow Warning of Rain for East of England :

 

Essex, Southend-on-Sea & Thurrock

 

 

Heavy showers, some of them combined with hail and thunder, will continue to affect parts of southern and southeastern England at times through the rest of Monday and Tuesday. The public should be aware of the risk of further localised flooding.

 

Issued at:

0828 on Mon 6 Jan 2014

 

Valid from:

0840 on Mon 6 Jan 2014

 

Valid to:

2359 on Tue 7 Jan 2014

 

The next 36 to 48 hours will see bands of showers running into southern coastal counties and across the southeast of England in particular. These have the potential to produce intense bursts of rain, quickly leading to localised impacts given the saturated ground. Hail will be an additional hazard associated with some of the heaviest showers.  It won't be raining all the time, with a significant drier interlude for some parts through the middle of Monday.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=se&from=rss&sn=AAF1B6E0-F489-9C79-FC03-669894A4B7E5_1_SE&tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1388966400

[bobbydog]

morning, soggy people.

 

meto weather warning out for us down here now-

 

Issued at - 06 Jan 2014, 08:28Valid from - 06 Jan 2014, 08:40Valid to - 07 Jan 2014, 23:59Heavy showers, some of them combined with hail and thunder, will continue to affect parts of southern and southeastern England at times through the rest of Monday and Tuesday. The public should be aware of the risk of further localised flooding.

 

 

edit- meh!......  ^^^^

Edited January 6, 2014 by bobbydog

[snow raven]

Now the rain from this morning has cleared, it's actually not a bad day out there - blue skies anyway.

 

Although have just seen the weather warnings posted above - seems it isn't set to last!