Model Output Discussion - 16th Jan 12z onwards - Smile While You Post!

[Snow Grain]

Rain/sleet turning to snow as it clears south east, then easterlies. Need to see what happens after that to see if a real cold spell arrives. Look northeast for continued pressure building west.

[IDO]

What will this mean then for us?

 

It means that further into the run the trough lasts longer compared to this morning when the Azores broke the flow:

 

06z  0z 

 

The longer the delay the better chance for the next LP system from the W/NW to phase better with the Azores for a slider Part 3.

Edited January 18, 2015 by i'm dreaming of...

[i luv snow]

Rain/sleet turning to snow as it clears south east, then easterlies. Need to see what happens after that to see if a real cold spell arrives. Look northeast for continued pressure building west.

 

This is for your area though, there are plenty of places further north (midlands and above) which are more inclined to see snow throughout.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Shaun, not sure where this story about the vortex headed to Siberia has gained traction. There is a split but the Siberian side is not strong. Thereafter, the Siberian side becomes absorbed into the Canadian. That's the mean viewpoint. the Siberian vortex in the mid/upper strat week 2 is perhaps where the confusion has come.

The latest eps extended keeps a split of sorts though the Siberia segment very flaccid and not influencing our part of the N.H. there is plenty of room for a ridge to our east but how far north that can get is open to question unless that split becomes more defined, nw Russia into scandi seems reasonable, given the location of the vortex.

Thanks for clearing that up I must of misread something then . But yes the signal for a Scandi high is gaining strength . It's almost like we'r finally seeing the pattern we expected to see this winter , just maybe 3 wks later !

[TEITS]

Starting to get more interested with regard to snowfall potential.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011806/gfs-2-84.png?6

[chicken soup]

]image.jpg

Nope - I think Ian knows what he means

i know that just thought he put fri instead of tue by mistake.

[Snow Grain]

This is for your area though, there are plenty of places further north (midlands and above) which are more inclined to see snow throughout.

not my area, I'm in Canada lol

[Ice Day]

with the now significant downgrade of the mild rescue expected next weekend, for me, its a significant shift. the great cold beasterlies of 85 and 86 were brought to us via a strong scandinavian high (as were other cold spells) and these freezes often come off the back of a messy synoptical mess beforehand.

 

This got my attention............excellent post Mushy!

 

Well, that's probably 6 GFS runs in a row (including the 6z running out now) that's upgraded vs the previous run.  We're seeing the length of the cold spell increase with some emerging signs of something even more significant down the line....maybe!  As has been said, the Scandi high is critical for us here.....let's hope it grows into a monster!

[bluearmy]

i know that just thought he put fri instead of tue by mistake.

Mind you- it might well be true of Tuesday by the time we get there!

[nick sussex]

Well the GFS 06hrs run now developing more energy going se and what with comments from Ian F which ties in with the UKMO being too fast upstream.

 

Pressure rising north towards Svalbard, very happy about this trend from the GFS.

[i luv snow]

not my area, I'm in Canada lol

 

haha sorry I thought it was Edmonton in London

[EML Network]

Looking at the + 120 chart we have the following....

 

To our NW in the red ring we have a typical low pressure system sitting around to or close to Iceland, will it slide, will it roll over the top of who we have in the green ring...

 

In the green ring and to our south West is our friend in summer and often our enemy in winter, the good old Azores, probably one ot the most major influencers in our weather, it's position often dictates what we get....will it have enough energy to roll over the UK, and default us back to a more westerly regieme

 

In the blue ring and to our South East, we have the decaying Low pressure system sitting over Italy, this is what is left of the energy that was spat out of the low that was previously in the Red wing over Iceland, how long will it stay there, will it prop up High pressure to our North East and open up an opportunity for an Easterly ??

To our North East and in the Purple ring we have the outer reaches of a Russian high, it's center location a LONG LONG way away, but enough that it's interacting with the other contestants, will it try to push west, will it make way for the Atlantic ??

In the middle of all of this we have us, at the mercy of these systems, in a bit of a no mans land (according to the GFS and ECM), a bit of time out, a good day for a walk whilst we await to see if we'll need an umbrella, a coat, or a snow shovel.

 

How will it play out ?? ..

 

ECM + 120

 

 

GFS + 120

Edited January 18, 2015 by EML Network

[bluearmy]

T192 - important part of this particular run and nice that we don't lose resolution!

Atlantic depression looks overblown so likely to make a different fi solution.

Can gfs really disrupt se at day 8 ???

[phil nw.]

Well the GFS 06hrs run now developing more energy going se and what with comments from Ian F which ties in with the UKMO being too fast upstream.

 

Pressure rising north towards Svalbard, very happy about this trend from the GFS.

Yes Nick by t192 we can see that sort of evolution developing.As you would hope this would bring colder air sw through Scandinavia if it continued along that path.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011806/gfsnh-0-192.png?6

Of course at that range it's speculation but it's the sort of trend we would want to see to inject some further cold down the line.

[chionomaniac]

T192 - important part of this particular run and nice that we don't lose resolution!

Atlantic depression looks overblown so likely to make a different fi solution.

Can gfs really disrupt se at day 8 ???

Well if an overblown low like that, that is heading NW but still with the negative tilt can detach itself and start to slide SE then we really are in business......

[MPG]

Starting to get more interested with regard to snowfall potential.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011806/gfs-2-84.png?6

Well I guess the weather fans in northern Spain and North Africa will also be excited about the potential on that chart!

[Harsh Climate]

Yet another undercut from an atlantic attacking low pressure. Run to run we are slowly getting there!

 

[nick sussex]

I know people might think that big high over Siberia on the GFS 00hrs looked good but its centred too far east, its better to develop a smaller high to the ne as this has a better chance of directing much colder air into the UK.

 

Don't worry if this run doesn't deliver , factor in that deep low, will it really be that strong, the most important thing is the earlier trend.

Edited January 18, 2015 by nick sussex

[chionomaniac]

One could run ahead 4 days from T+228 and see a beasterly lurking. If only heh? Synoptically very interesting

[Ali1977]

Scandy high developing on day 9, too far out I know but things are still looking interesting for model watchers.

[Cloud 10]

not my area, I'm in Canada lol

 

Should be an all snow event for you then.

 

[phil nw.]

Much better split in the pv this run and we can see the effect with the Svalbard heights.

The cold Siberian uppers being sent south and west under the high towards Europe.

[Ali1977]

Stonking FI coming.....if the high didn't collapse that was!!!

Edited January 18, 2015 by Ali1977

[bluearmy]

At day 10, it's inline with the ens anomolys so that promising. Whole pattern shifted west in comparison and the anomolys were already a bit west of the mean. perhaps this is stretching the envelope too far? good to see the pattern looks supported though.

[Cloud 10]

Stinking FI coming.....

 

That would be stonking.  

 

 

 

Polar vortex cracked way open,cold backing west and a huge strat warming to come.

 

Lol!

Edited January 18, 2015 by Cloud 10