Model Output Discussion - 16th Jan 12z onwards - Smile While You Post!

[shaky]

Not to worry BA - 12z GFS = Progressive.

 

Infact all models have been fairly progressive this last 72 hours...

 

ECM seems to be coming back inline with the last 5 runs having general consistency to 144-

 

S

yes steve you probably right!! Up to 96 hours and 120 hours everything has been shoved back westwards on both ukmo and gfs!! Hope ecm continues where it left off this morning!!

[TonyH]

Im just on the Northern edge of the sweet spot Steve, personally I think that the warming of the Irish Sea will leave many without elevation with rain/sleet, the further East the better.

Dont get too hung up it will move again.

Re the Irish Sea I am 10 miles from the sea and have had 2 decent snowfalls in the past week with winds from WSW.

Edited January 18, 2015 by TonyH

[john mac]

Still the trend for the Scandi high to edge eastwards towards Russia which of course means more chance for the Atlantic to eventually win the battle. Of course there is signs the scandi may be more stronger and may resist the Atlantic somewhat but there is no real trend for it to back too far westwards to allow any significant cold to come in from Scandi and that is  a fact really. 

 

Regarding the easterly, well not only it is probably not cold enough for snow for the most part, it could turn out that there is not much instability either so a lot of cloud, feeling quite unpleasant really. 

 

Would not mind taking a cold raw easterly if it can lead to some reward down the line but it looks doubtful really.

Check out Tamara's post earlier today. Very informative mate!!!

[swfc]

The gfs 12z looks very similar to this mornings ecm in regard to the low to the north at 210 hrs and 216 respective.If were saying ecm is on the money gfs may not be far off the mark here given the usual caveats ete.

[samalllpop]

UKMO 72

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2015011812/UW72-21.GIF?18-17 -TRACK

UK MAP.png

Sorry Steve can you just explain your chart

Edited January 18, 2015 by samalllpop

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Re models being progressive, for me its all relative and from what one expects/anticipates.  I think the HP to NE has an influence and will come under pressure and its influence will weaken/strengthen/weaken/strengthen and eventually weaken.  Even at t192 on 12z its there but waned a bit but I think no doubt it will re-assert itself by reforming/pushing back west or another height increase developing and linking up to it..... .  Exact outcome still to be sorted no doubt but for me it won't win out in the end and mega easterly aint on the cards.  Again, lets get through this week as enough to interest us for then....as I could be completely wrong but that AZH has some influence in it yet for this winter positive or negative...Beware hunting for the 'beast from the East'......

 

BFTP

Edited January 18, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Geordiesnow]

Not much comment on the UKMO and you can see why, Scand high becomes a Russian high, Atlantic coming into play, outlook is for things to turn less cold. Its not a raging Atlantic by any means but I think we need too look at the reality and not some fantasy that we may see the Scandi high coming into play much. 

 

This afternoon's UKMO may be better for any frontal snow event, hard too tell though. 

[Ali1977]

Massive difference at day 9 in the Scandy area goes to prove why FI is way before this.

[bluearmy]

Is anyone expecting the Scandi ridge to deliver a raging easterly? I thought the idea was it held up the Atlantic and forced the trough disruption to correct west ?

[hammy]

Sense a distinct lack of disappointment in here after the 12z runs, but surely one positive that we can take is that is that in the more reliable time frame (96hrs) the pattern has been shifted west, even the ukmo has come on board. It will be interesting to see what the ECM brings, but to me the GFS looks to progressive and I await further runs before throwing my toys out of the pram, the general pattern over the past few days has to prolong the cold, and this is the only run to have a blip, is it right? who knows, more runs are needed.. 

[IDO]

The three main models at D6:

 

  

 

A sort of consensus. See whether ECM agrees?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 

 

And here we go, waxing/re-influencing

 

BA, I think many may hope with thoughts/posts of Scandi HP becoming more influential with each run?  Just saying to folk to be wary of this............ only being as you say initially re correcting west holding up Atlantic and not becoming a BFE.  I know I certainly want to see that and I'm sure many on here want/hope for that.  I've edited this as I can see that it seemed to indicate that it was being suggested as being on the cards, which isn't the suggestion at all

 

BFTP

Edited January 18, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Chris Wsm]

If we get any further corrections West , r.e. the progression of the front Tue/Wed , we  will be lucky to get it past Birmingham . Although i imagine it may increase chances of some Snow into parts of the West country . Wednesdays front had looked stronger on previous runs , but now it looks like it will struggle with Eastwards progression more than Tuesday. On the bright side Gem and Navgem still take it across the country , but the resolution isn't as high as the new GFS . As for the rest of the 12z , it looks far to progressive to me , taking into account that Cold block of air to the East , and I'm pretty sure the Atlantic will struggle to get through more than shown , maybe setting up some sort of battle ground situation would be my bet right now . 

[Long haul to mild]

To my untrained eye, the GFS and UKMO seem very different at T96. GFS has an Easterly flow which isn't there on the UKMO.

Anyone got any views on why such a seemingly big variance at such a short timeframe and also which one is synoptically most likely?

[Catacol]

I am wondering whether the displacement of the strat PV to Siberia aids in this westward shift of the tropospheric Siberian high. Almost like squeezing a balloon from above- it squashes out to the sides and voila!

 Yep.

[Catacol]

I'm at a bit of a loss as to why people think the Canadian vortex is weakening? There is no tropospheric evidence that this will be the case.

Perhaps beyond week 3 but that's just conjecture at this stage based on hoped for strat influences to downwell.

It is evident on strat forecasts all the way up from 100hpa to 30hpa. It is a pretty clear signal... and with movement of the vortex away from the Canadian sector there will certainly be a reduction in support for Canadian energy. My point earlier is that the models are perhaps not setup to recognise the significance of this in the medium term - at least observation suggests so. Likewise last year when the vortex did set up properly over Canada - we still got a sprinkling on medium to long range charts that toyed with a more blocked setup from time to time. It never materialised - the vortex influence was too strong.

[Hotspur62]

Looking at all models and past experiences I think the Front coming in on Monday evening will push in but will fizzle out and just make it East of Midlands at best with Eastern Engand and SE staying dry.There will be some snow particularly Midlands Northwards,NI ,N Wales etc but don't think accumulations will be that significant, maybe lucky ones getting 5-10cms at best(with elevaton  say over 150ms).After that the cool/cold theme will continue although temps will trend towards average this time next week. Models were more positive late last night onwards for Westwards movement of 1st Front although latest ones have been a bit disappointing in terms of cold but there are such wide fluctuations you just cannot rule anything out being the Atlantic pushing through by say Friday or the Block being more resilient. I think we will be in a bit of "no mans land" next week with the West and East eyeing each other up and deciding who can get on the front foot and go for a decisive blow.

 

Very Interesting and just tried to give a balanced view by looking at models and using past experiences of similar set ups we have had in the past.One thing I think is important is the Eastward bias GFS has in its modelling so I think things very finely balanced.

[Tamara]

Good observations being made about the nearer term pattern positive adjustments westward, in accordance with expectations, but intra model suite reactional assumptions continue based on face value observations beyond the end of the week

 

The gist of that post earlier was not definitively predicting a full blown bitter easterly to occur by next weekend or into next week because that is not at all likely to happen so soon - but that the very messy Atlantic phase was destined to continue for some time - and does not have a logical conclusion back to sustained westerlies.

 

I have repeated this in at least two recent posts before today - and the pendulum has already swung back and forwards with westwards, then eastwards, and now westwards Atlantic/European adjustments once again...

 

It is beyond this messy Atlantic phase (and irrespective of any attempted Atlantic incursion) that with the stratospheric profile much better suited in our sector for the first time this winter (displaced vortex on top of earlier junior SSW, plus Mountain Torque interaction as described in detail and within a NW-SE orientated trough disrupting jet stream pattern environment) that further ever more favourable pattern evolvements have a good chance of occuring - and it is at that time, towards months end and into February that any real events from the east conceivably could well come into play.

 

There is uncertainty about the MJO forecasts (some dichotomy between GEFS and ECM forecasts) and in terms of the possible NAO trends I spoke about, we do need more certainty here - but winter has its biggest chance yet to get properly started now than it has done thus far.

 

One step at a time. With a cold week ahead already anyway - there is plenty to watch out for of great interest beyond this time

 

Edit : Ed, yes between course work and writing this I have

Edited January 18, 2015 by Tamara

[chionomaniac]

Have you sen the latest MJO forecast Tamara? - more than a hint of phase 6 return.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

[IDO]

Looking at the GEFS at T120 no real changes from this morning's runs with about 45% going with "the slider part 2". The rest in line with the op and control, with the Azores pushing through the trough. I said 2-3 days till this is resolved so time for the ensembles to tip one way or another. I suppose with such an even split we have to accept the hi-res will flip flop.

 

Some of the members going with the trough are very good, some so so:

 

  

 

  

 

 

You can see how the hi-res are flip flopping from coldest to mildest runs 06z-12z:

 

 

 

More runs needed.

 

 

[WINTRY WALES]

Would it be possible for anyone to give a brief explanation of the MJO, the different phases and what each phase means to weather patterns (I:e our locale if possible)

Not sure if this is easily explainable?

Thanks in advance

[Duane S.]

Would it be possible for anyone to give a brief explanation of the MJO, the different phases and what each phase means to weather patterns (I:e our locale if possible)

Not sure if this is easily explainable?

Thanks in advance

Phase 6 would likely aid ridging northwards of the Azores High.

[Cloud 10]

Would it be possible for anyone to give a brief explanation of the MJO, the different phases and what each phase means to weather patterns (I:e our locale if possible)

Not sure if this is easily explainable?

Thanks in advance

 

 

Might need two cups of coffee to get an idea of it.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/46153-mjo-rossby-and-kelvin-waves/

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

 

http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html

[bluearmy]

As the gefs go into their low res, T192, there are an awful lot of Russian ridges. Not many survive the trip into low res though!

[Skullzrulerz]

ECM Should be starting to roll out now we wait for the ECM run with a lot of hope.

 

I think there may be a upgrade this time but we see soon.