The Midlands - Weather Chat

[shaky]

Tomorrow looks interesting, MetO has me down for quite a lot of heavy snow. And plenty of showers coming through the midlands according to NMM. However it has them down as a mixture of snow and sleet, and on the past few snow events i've found it to be quite accurate with regards to what will fall as rain, sleet, snow etc. So it looks very marginal again, temps up to 3c, 850's around -4c/5c later on, dew points above freezing. So this one is going to go right down to nowcasting, as all marginal events do.

 

Luckily for me I have the day of work tomorrow so it should be fun

latest gfs has upgraded the dew points tomorrow to-3 compared to -1 in the last run!! So whatver falls will be of snow! !

[LadyEv06]

Sudden white out here!

[Mair Snaw]

Heavy snow pilling in here at the moment....some laying too...

[FENDER.]

Radar showing snow in the Stoke area?

[andy_leics22]

After being a bit cheesed off with Oxfordshire's lack of snow earlier, i've had a look at the models and I actually think it looks decent now for most of the Midlands.

Tonight looks very interesting. I expect to see snow showers packing into Wales by 9pm ish and then throughout the night they SHOULD penetrate inland a fair distance. I'm hopeful that some showers will merge together to make small bands of snow, that is just my wishful thinkinf though I have seen it happen before mind you.

Tomorrow looks like another interesting day. PPN also widespread across the Midlands on the models and I think just about anywhere could see snow showers.

[Gord]

Nice to have one or two quick hitting snow showers earlier.

 

Went up Beacon Hill at dusk. Very cold but beautiful up there. Visibility was brilliant. Could see the shower clouds to the north with their tops lit up by the setting sun.

 

Not much else to say really. Not expecting a lot here but there should be some brilliant weather around for those further north tonight. Looking forward to the pictures! What a winter this is turning out to be for them! Pleased the disaster of last year is being reversed in some parts of the country. Alas, it can't happen for all of us all of the time but that's the way it is.

[Polar Maritime]

A full cover of snow here.

[weather_it_will]

Radar showing snow in the Stoke area?

Lot's of these showers now crossing the Irish Sea, via the Cheshire Gap.

 

All should be of snow now, as dew points and 850 temps are plenty cold enough.

 

The snow showers will hopefully reach further south during the evening and night

Edited January 28, 2015 by 'ColdIsBest'

[LadyEv06]

Blimey this snow is coming down in sheets with the wind. Looks so pretty though lying on the ground - like a dusting of flour

[weirpig]

downgrade on the euro 4   most of the precipitation  to the north

[Dancerwithwings]

Tonight we could see a snow shower almost anywhere, but as we've been hearing on the forecast all day,

it's the North and the Northwest of the UK that's getting some decent snowfall

Well methinks tomorrow morning it will be more widespread as a band of more organized snow will sink south here in the Midlands

and into the Afternoon there will be more snow showers on a strong Nw'ly,

 

The 12z is out and it's looking good http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&VAR=prty&HH=48&BASE=-&WMO=&ZOOM=0

 

 

Edit, that chart above was the 06z... I'm still going for more widespread snowfalll come the morning not just for the north Midlands

it will interesting to see what the next run will look like

Edited January 28, 2015 by Dancerwithwings

[Chunky Flake]

I doubt the west will get much the east may get a pounding

[MKN]

downgrade on the euro 4   most of the precipitation  to the north

Yup very poor for us largely. Bout time we had something guarenteed, to often this winter snow has been hit or miss or marginal

[weirpig]

Tonight we could see a snow shower almost anywhere, but as we've been hearing on the forecast all day,

it's the North and the Northwest of the UK that's getting some decent snowfall

Well methinks tomorrow morning it will be more widespread as a band of more organized snow will sink south here in the Midlands

and into the Afternoon there will be more snow showers on a strong Nw'ly,

 

The 12z is out and it's looking good http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&VAR=prty&HH=48&BASE=-&WMO=&ZOOM=0

 

Thats th 6z  unfortunately

[MKN]

Tonight we could see a snow shower almost anywhere, but as we've been hearing on the forecast all day,

it's the North and the Northwest of the UK that's getting some decent snowfall

Well methinks tomorrow morning it will be more widespread as a band of more organized snow will sink south here in the Midlands

and into the Afternoon there will be more snow showers on a strong Nw'ly,

 

The 12z is out and it's looking good http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&VAR=prty&HH=48&BASE=-&WMO=&ZOOM=0

 

Thats 06z. 12z is far worse

[kmanmx]

I doubt the west will get much the east may get a pounding

 

How do you come to that conclusion ? PPN is coming from the west.

 

But yes EURO4 is a downgrade as others have said. I prefer NMM so will see what that says. 

[FENDER.]

thats the way its going so far, but you never know your luck, area of sleet/snow just to the south of Birmingham

[weather_it_will]

downgrade on the euro 4   most of the precipitation  to the north

Snow virtually on your doorstep. No need to look at the models now.

[MidlandsSean]

Whilst following the forum avidly, I rarely post.

 

However I was just wondering if I was correct in thinking, when it comes to showers, models precip charts are even more unreliable and that theyre more to pick up trends/areas more likely to receive shower activity. 

 

Surely its better to look at the radar more so than rely on the models at this time frame?

[imballinger]

Well I can report the Telford snow shield is working in full force.

[Strider]

Euro4 showing accumulation now non-existant for the Midlands

[andy_leics22]

downgrade on the euro 4   most of the precipitation  to the north

In these situations though, shower distribution can change rapidly. The radar will be the best thing to follow now.

I remember in 2010 when Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire got hammered from that Easterly, what the NMM high-res model was forecasting was about 50-100 miles wrong.

I wouldn't take the EURO4 as gospel.

[Strider]

NMM 12z also going to break a few hearts with a more northerly track of the ppn now expected.

[Dancerwithwings]

Thats th 6z  unfortunately

 

 

Thats 06z. 12z is far worse

Sorry guys realized that after my post, but as to the edited of my post....Edit, that chart above was the 06z... I'm still going for more widespread snowfalll come the morning not just for the north Midlands

it will interesting to see what the next run will look like

[LadyEv06]

I've been refreshing the meto forecast all day and we wasn't forecast snow before late this evening. In the past 40 minutes we've had really heavy snow, giving about a 2cm covering.

Don't give up hope already!!