North West England - Weather Chat

[Weather-history]

Dew points have dropped, humidity dropped. Arctic airmass filtering in.

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

A shortwave or developing low centre has popped up in the irish sea. Inbetween IOM and mainland

[itsnowjoke]

The best snowfalls are always the surprise ones. This evening is a developing situation, the BBC obviously not too sure where it will snow, and this is why they are saying anywhere could wake up to a fresh snow cover. Best to keep an open mind in these situations..

yes well I've told everyone that it's not going to snow tonight so lets see..

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Nothing on radar but this cud produce something? Also the low over ne scotland bends the isos and cud give us a nwley overnight. This could introduce shower activity

[Brass_Monkeys]

Nmm updated 12z has a lot of snow....

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=23&mode=45&map=330

Looking very good for Scotland,N England, East Coast and NI.

The SW and parts of Wales may also fair well overnight.

There's probably more chance of some snow running into the Midlands than there is our region.

Will be a case of radar viewing and touring the snowy regional threads later.

[itsnowjoke]

Itv weather just mentioned wintry flurries overnight

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Also i have noticed in this cold snap that alot of troughs and showers have died and the energy remains and the showers reinvigorate as they hit land. Is this a possibillity with the showers from the north east? The energy cud remain after Crossing pennines and then reinvigorate? GFS shows ppn popping up over merseyside overnight

[Brass_Monkeys]

The best snowfalls are always the surprise ones. This evening is a developing situation, the BBC obviously not too sure where it will snow, and this is why they are saying anywhere could wake up to a fresh snow cover. Best to keep an open mind in these situations..

Yes I agree. However, I prefer to temper my expectations with experience.

Like you say there's a reason the Met have a yellow warning over the region. Probably just erring on the side of caution, though.

I hope I'm wrong and have to go bollocko in the snow!

[Weather-history]

Not a bad day but that wind was bitter

[Day 10]

Yes we have conflicting forecasts from the met, the general forecast has this:

 

This Evening and Tonight:

A generally dry evening with clear spells. Overnight, a band of sleet and snow may develop for a time, mainly over higher ground and in the east. Very cold, with widespread frost and ice forming. Remaining windy. Minimum Temperature -3C.

 

Then in their warning for our region has this:

Other areas will be largely dry until a more organised area of light snow moves southwards during the early hours of Sunday morning.Accumulations of 1-2 cm are possible, with perhaps 5 cm on some high ground, mainly in the north and west.

So basically anywhere! It's a nowcast/radar night to find out the answer.

Edited January 31, 2015 by Polar Climate

[Day 10]

Itv weather just mentioned wintry flurries overnight

You got your beers at the ready for our combined usual letdown

[Weather-history]

Manchester Airport TAF goes for light snow showers tonight

TAF: EGCC 311700Z 3118/0124 32012KT 9999 SCT035 TEMPO 3118/0106 32017G27KT PROB30 TEMPO 3122/0104 3000 -SHSN BKN009 PROB30 TEMPO 0106/0111 33015G25KT

[Brass_Monkeys]

Manchester Airport TAF goes for light snow showers tonight

TAF: EGCC 311700Z 3118/0124 32012KT 9999 SCT035 TEMPO 3118/0106 32017G27KT PROB30 TEMPO 3122/0104 3000 -SHSN BKN009 PROB30 TEMPO 0106/0111 33015G25KT

Only %30 probability so low confidence

[Day 10]

Couple of pics from the latest cold spell, was going to cut the grass but thought I'd clear the drive first as the Mrs needed to go out

 

 

[Weather-history]

Only %30 probability so low confidence

That % is pretty typical. You often see 30% and 40%. Has anyone seen a TAF saying 90% or over?

[Brass_Monkeys]

That % is pretty typical. You often see 30% and 40%. Has anyone seen a TAF saying 90% or over?

Yes I've noticed they're often at 30 or 40. I can't recall ever seeing 90. I've definitely seen 60 and perhaps a 70 although I'm not certain.

[itsnowjoke]

You got your beers at the ready for our combined usual letdown

I sure have ready for dissapointment central

[Day 10]

I sure have ready for dissapointment central

Wouldn't you just love to have Scotlands winter, just watching the radar there of snow showers constantly piling in.

[robbo88]

Aww I hope we get some more action tonight.

I love it when this forum is buzzing!

[Brass_Monkeys]

Yes I've noticed they're often at 30 or 40. I can't recall ever seeing 90. I've definitely seen 60 and perhaps a 70 although I'm not certain.

Apparently only 30 and 40 are used with PROB. Anything higher they use TEMPO.

Guess I didn't see 50-70 PROB after all. That's the trouble with Tafs - all letters and numbers.

I got the info here:

http://www.ap-i.net/meteo/tafexpl.html

It's quite surprising how much info they contain when you start to decipher the code!

Edited January 31, 2015 by Brass_Monkeys

[Day 10]

Aww I hope we get some more action tonight.

I love it when this forum is buzzing!

I love this forum, glad I signed up will keep me entertained in the winter months, some people come out with some funny stuff sometimes. I jest about not seeing snow, I'm used to the Wirral missing out. However when I was a kid in the 80's I always used to remember snow a lot more frequent than now.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Bring on summer, sick of this winter, colder and snowier than last winter but miles more frustrating with me just missing out many times, sunny and warm early spring will do very nicely.

[gearbox100]

I love this forum, glad I signed up will keep me entertained in the winter months, some people come out with some funny stuff sometimes. I jest about not seeing snow, I'm used to the Wirral missing out. However when I was a kid in the 80's I always used to remember snow a lot more frequent than now.

same, I remember as a Child seeing the weather and it saying minus 3 with a wind chill of minus 10. Today we had 5 degrees with a wind chill of minus 1 and this is considered the big freeze. It shows the level of our Climate change (natural or otherwise not for me to debate) in such a short space of time.

Edited January 31, 2015 by gearbox100

[Day 10]

same, I remember as a Child seeing the weather and it saying minus 3 with a wind chill of minus 10. Today we had 5 degrees with a wind chill of minus 1 and this is considered the big freeze. It shows the level of our Climate change (natural or otherwise not for me to debate) in such a short space of time.

I said the other day, I know we had Dec 2010, but It would be good to experience just 1 winter like a 47 or a 63 in our lifetimes (I'm guessing your a similar age).

[Cheshire Freeze]

same, I remember as a Child seeing the weather and it saying minus 3 with a wind chill of minus 10. Today we had 5 degrees with a wind chill of minus 1 and this is considered the big freeze. It shows the level of our Climate change (natural or otherwise not for me to debate) in such a short space of time.

It has nothing to do with climate change and everything to do with relativity I.e last year was so mild that this spell seems so much colder. I'm pretty sure Jan 2010 was towards as severe as it can get.. -15C even here.