North West England - Weather Chat

[HotCuppa]

That % is pretty typical. You often see 30% and 40%. Has anyone seen a TAF saying 90% or over?

 

this is actually lingo for pilots.

 

30% is the worst met get out clause ever and it means unlikely to happen, but if you sit there and do nothing and nothing happens its your fault.

40% is likely to happen, but if you take off and something happens , don't blame us.

 

this is why you generally do not see anything above this values just the lingo of the taf lol

Edited January 31, 2015 by HotCuppa

[HotCuppa]

TAF EGGP 311700Z 3118/0118 33019KT 9999 FEW035 TEMPO 3118/0110 32022G32KT PROB30 TEMPO 3122/0103 32025G42KT 4000 -SHRASN BKN012 PROB40 TEMPO 0110/0114 33022G32KT BECMG 0115/0118 33009KT

 

rain / snow  

Edited January 31, 2015 by HotCuppa

[Day 10]

this is actually lingo for pilots.

 

30% is the worst met get out clause ever and it means unlikely to happen, but if you sit there and do nothing and nothing happens its your fault.

40% is likely to happen, but if you take off and something happens , don't blame us.

 

this is why you generally do not see anything above this values just the lingo of the taf lol

Massive win today, here's hoping we can move up the league now as we have 2 very easy games up next (yeah right).

[Day 10]

Showers developing a little more now north east Scotland

[Snowy L]

Met office warning is a bit strange

 

Sleet and snow showers will continue to affect many area during Saturday and into Sunday. These will be most frequent across northern and Western Scotland, Northern Ireland, West Wales and Devon and Cornwall. Other areas will be largely dry until a more organised area of light snow moves southwards during the early hours of Sunday morning. Accumulations of 1-2 cm are possible, with perhaps 5 cm on some high ground, mainly in the north and west. Icy patches are likely. Strong winds will also gust to around 60 mph along exposed northern and western coasts.

 

Isn't this front in the North Sea meant to be affecting mostly Northern and Eastern areas.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Met office warning is a bit strange

 

Sleet and snow showers will continue to affect many area during Saturday and into Sunday. These will be most frequent across northern and Western Scotland, Northern Ireland, West Wales and Devon and Cornwall. Other areas will be largely dry until a more organised area of light snow moves southwards during the early hours of Sunday morning. Accumulations of 1-2 cm are possible, with perhaps 5 cm on some high ground, mainly in the north and west. Icy patches are likely. Strong winds will also gust to around 60 mph along exposed northern and western coasts.

 

Isn't this front in the North Sea meant to be affecting mostly Northern and Eastern areas.

 

seems to be a cheshire gap streamer being modelled as winds turn NW for a time, very dodgy though, could be rain/sleet at low levels

[Cheshire Freeze]

seems to be a cheshire gap streamer being modelled as winds turn NW for a time, very dodgy though, could be rain/sleet at low levels

It'll be just too far west for here though. Winds just too northerly. Anything that does fall though should have no problem laying.

[Day 10]

Yes we have conflicting forecasts from the met, the general forecast has this:

 

This Evening and Tonight:

A generally dry evening with clear spells. Overnight, a band of sleet and snow may develop for a time, mainly over higher ground and in the east. Very cold, with widespread frost and ice forming. Remaining windy. Minimum Temperature -3C.

 

Then in their warning for our region has this:

Other areas will be largely dry until a more organised area of light snow moves southwards during the early hours of Sunday morning.Accumulations of 1-2 cm are possible, with perhaps 5 cm on some high ground, mainly in the north and west.

So basically anywhere! It's a nowcast/radar night to find out the answer.

Yes snowyL, I pointed this out earlier (north and west should be in bold too)

[Dr. Astro]

Anyone know what the Peak District is like ? Looking for somewhere with deep snow to take the dog for a walk tomorrow?

[dodge]

Settling myself for a very cold albeit dry week ahead.  Just a shame we had the big thaw on Friday at a local level.  However driving back on the M60 from Manchester this sunny afternoon and observing the snow covered hills of Oldham was a sight to behold.  That's were I'll be heading tomorrow.

[Dr. Astro]

Settling myself for a very cold albeit dry week ahead.  Just a shame we had the big thaw on Friday at a local level.  However driving back on the M60 from Manchester this sunny afternoon and observing the snow covered hills of Oldham was a sight to behold.  That's were I'll be heading tomorrow.

 

How deep are we talking ?

[robbo88]

How deep are we talking ?

Sounds like you should go to buxton for deep snow

[Dr. Astro]

Sounds like you should go to buxton for deep snow

 

Aye, I think you are right - not sure I know any dog trails though around Buxton.

 

Been Teggs Nose, Macc Forest etc.

[Martin M]

Aye, I think you are right - not sure I know any dog trails though around Buxton.

 

Been Teggs Nose, Macc Forest etc.

 If you can get up there, park at the Cat and Fiddle and then walk out towards Shining Tor and Cats Tor (great views over Cheshire and Manchester if its clear), then you can either retrace your steps or drop down into Goyt Valley.

 

Did that walk in the snow we had 2 weeks ago and there was plenty up there after a smaller snowfall.

 

Couple of pics from then.

https://flic.kr/p/qPHTBh

 

https://flic.kr/p/qRWmvs

Edited January 31, 2015 by Martin M

[Will Padz]

Just back in....frozen, been helping neighbour with their car.... Lethal ice out there....spent an hour with shovels breaking compacted snow thats 2-4 inches of ice on our hill....

[cheshire snow]

If you can get up there, park at the Cat and Fiddle and then walk out towards Shining Tor and Cats Tor (great views over Cheshire and Manchester if its clear), then you can either retrace your steps or drop down into Goyt Valley.

 

Did that walk in the snow we had 2 weeks ago and there was plenty up there after a smaller snowfall.

 

Couple of pics from then.

https://flic.kr/p/qPHTBh

 

https://flic.kr/p/qRWmvs

Thanks for sharing the pictures, absolutely stunning

C.S

[Dr. Astro]

 If you can get up there, park at the Cat and Fiddle and then walk out towards Shining Tor and Cats Tor (great views over Cheshire and Manchester if its clear), then you can either retrace your steps or drop down into Goyt Valley.

 

Did that walk in the snow we had 2 weeks ago and there was plenty up there after a smaller snowfall.

 

Couple of pics from then.

https://flic.kr/p/qPHTBh

 

https://flic.kr/p/qRWmvs

 

Thanks Martin,

 

Might give that one a shot, great pictures by the way.

 

Just been looking and it appears Teggs Nose is full of deep snow ?

[Martin M]

Thanks for sharing the pictures, absolutely stunning

C.S

 

 

Thanks Martin,

 

Might give that one a shot, great pictures by the way.

 

Just been looking and it appears Teggs Nose is full of deep snow ?

 Thanks guys.

 

Trouble I find with Teggs Nose is its always packed with people going sledging. They were parking a half mile either side of the carpark when I drove past the other week. 

 

Macc forest up to Shutlingsloe is another good one, but again seems to be everyones favourite place this side when I've been up there mountain biking just lately.

[Dr. Astro]

 Thanks guys.

 

Trouble I find with Teggs Nose is its always packed with people going sledging. They were parking a half mile either side of the carpark when I drove past the other week. 

 

Macc forest up to Shutlingsloe is another good one, but again seems to be everyones favourite place this side when I've been up there mountain biking just lately.

 

Yep, I know exactly what you mean, although I'm an early bird, i'll be there before 7am, I doubt anyone else will be (Hopefully)...

 

Was just looking at Shutlingsloe just now, is it deep there?

[Martin M]

Yep, I know exactly what you mean, although I'm an early bird, i'll be there before 7am, I doubt anyone else will be (Hopefully)...

 

Was just looking at Shutlingsloe just now, is it deep there?

 

Not sure how much is up there, but in macc we probably had around 4 inches Thursday and Buxton has got something rediculous so I'd imagine theres a fair amount drifting around up there. I heard the local roads were temporarily closed today due to drifting.

[Dr. Astro]

Not sure how much is up there, but in macc we probably had around 4 inches Thursday and Buxton has got something rediculous so I'd imagine theres a fair amount drifting around up there. I heard the local roads were temporarily closed today due to drifting.

 

Yep, can see from the local webcams Buxton is pretty bad (or good) !

 

Would imagine there is a fair bit up Shutlins being over 500m high.

 

I'm still undecided where I will go, Teggs Nose, Shuts or Buxon... Argh!

[HotCuppa]

unless the entire country ends up swamped in endless snow, i do not see much from this if anything. Horrible direction to expect snow..by the time it reaches us down there is generally no snow left, since the mountains , high terrain drain the clouds.

 

a rule of thumb i always see to this as well, is the east always fairs better than the west too.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

unless the entire country ends up swamped in endless snow, i do not see much from this if anything. Horrible direction to expect snow..by the time it reaches us down there is generally no snow left, since the mountains , high terrain drain the clouds.

 

a rule of thumb i always see to this as well, is the east always fairs better than the west too.

 

Yes, the east always do better than west for snow, especially E Midlands over W Midlands

[HotCuppa]

seems to be a cheshire gap streamer being modelled as winds turn NW for a time, very dodgy though, could be rain/sleet at low levels

 

I would be very surprised if we see anything beyond clear dry overnight leading to hard ground frosts.

The pattern is always dry from northerly, never ever seen it deliver anything but dry and cold weather, bit like an easterly rarely if ever delivers anything certainly by the time it reaches west cheshire. I just think this entire thing is a non event.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I would be very surprised if we see anything beyond clear dry overnight leading to hard ground frosts.

The pattern is always dry from northerly, never ever seen it deliver anything but dry and cold weather, bit like an easterly rarely if ever delivers anything certainly by the time it reaches west cheshire. I just think this entire thing is a non event.

 

Easterlies great for here, but northerlies pants, more like a wishbone effect, the next few days are cold and dry