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Thunderbolt_

By Thunderbolt_
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I Cumbria Marra I Seasoned

I Cumbria Marra I

Posted
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snow winter, Warm/hot summer, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
Posted

EURO4 accumulations indicative of marginal nature of event.

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Low lying accumulations look very unlikely at this stage.

Wrong, look at cumbria which is part of the north west.

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Spah1 Accomplished

Spah1

Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
Posted

Yes. Same for people posting garbage EURO 4 too.

Isn't Euro 4 a high res model? I thought that was the decent one.

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Brass_Monkeys Newbie

Brass_Monkeys

Posted
  • Location: Ashton-in-Makerfield, Wigan (60m/182ft asl)
  • Location: Ashton-in-Makerfield, Wigan (60m/182ft asl)
Posted

I don't understand why people seem to give so much credence to computer generated forecast apps??

I've just entered my location in 4 such apps which have returned 4 different outlooks for Thursday's weather.

My advice would be simply to follow the latest MetO forecast (not the app) and read through the Model Thread.

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itsnowjoke Veteran

itsnowjoke

Posted
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley
Posted

Well im preparing for nothing so that I won't be disappointed the bbc graphics are vague and wintry showers at times were mentioned vague also..they are not for committing themselves to anything thats for sure.

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Darren Bown Community Regular

Darren Bown

Posted
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside
Posted

All aspects of forecasting should be taken equally, everyone has their preferences on what they look at. I for one, don't have the time to trawl through some of the more complicated charts, and like a lot of people, will use the Metoffice app to see what the weather will do.

At the moment, the MetOffice apps seem to follow the usual west of M6 will be marginal, further inland will be much more wintry.

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Cheese Rice Community Regular

Cheese Rice

Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
Posted

EURO 4 is the main modeL used by the met office. The same met office that came up with those warnings based on its output.

Wrong, look at cumbria which is part of the north west.

Okay the densely populated parts of thE north west.

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itsnowjoke Veteran

itsnowjoke

Posted
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley
Posted

Wrong, look at cumbria which is part of the north west.

yes it is North west but that chart doesn't look good for area either.
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

Saddleworth thats snow all the way!

Winter hill job on Sunday I think.

Thing is I love seeing snow fall. Best chances 3am-7am. I'll be fast asleep!

 

Not Friday late afternoon, uppers up significantly above -4c, 600ft altitude in a convective flow wont cut it.

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Hocus Pocus Community Regular

Hocus Pocus

Posted
  • Location: Newton in Bowland
  • Location: Newton in Bowland
Posted

Can people stop hanging on these ruddy weather apps. IMO, they are garbage.

That's also goes for those local Met Office forecasts with those symbols. I think they are bit of a farce, IMO.

Here, here, but it seems people don't learn from the last episode when all of these precipitation maps were simply wrong. 

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Weather-history Maestro

Weather-history

Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
Posted (edited)

EURO 4 is the main modeL used by the met office. The same met office that came up with those warnings based on its output.

That's interesting because I'm under the warning but no accumulation according to Euro 4. Infact a good part of low lying Lancashire is under that warning.

Edited by Weather-history
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

That's the interesting because I'm under the warning but no accumulation according to Euro 4. Infact a good part of low lying Lancashire is under that warning.

 

Yes but that's because they cant specifically mark altitude in a map like that, its just too localised.

 

RE - Met office apps, they are derived from model runs, and as we don't have access to all the data, the Met Office map, its probably the best data at the current time, I wouldn't bother with ones that are GFS derived though.

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itsnowjoke Veteran

itsnowjoke

Posted
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley
Posted

Well ive just had look at the met office app which ive unistalled as it has me down for sleet and rain Wednesday and Thursday haha hope thats even slightly wrong

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Day 10 Maestro

Day 10

Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
Posted

Can people stop hanging on these ruddy weather apps. IMO, they are garbage.

That's also goes for those local Met Office forecasts with those symbols. I think they are bit of a farce, IMO.

 

I don't understand why people seem to give so much credence to computer generated forecast apps??

I've just entered my location in 4 such apps which have returned 4 different outlooks for Thursday's weather.

My advice would be simply to follow the latest MetO forecast (not the app) and read through the Model Thread.

I second that

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Cheese Rice Community Regular

Cheese Rice

Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
Posted (edited)

That's interesting because I'm under the warning but no accumulation according to Euro 4. Infact a good part of low lying Lancashire is under that warning.

It'll snow for definite but I'd wager they are concerned about temporary accumulations, strong winds reduced visibility etc.

Not one high resolution models Shows lying snow for lowland north west England. Infact some don't even signal snow just rain.

Edited by Cheese Rice
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I Cumbria Marra I Seasoned

I Cumbria Marra I

Posted
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snow winter, Warm/hot summer, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
Posted

EURO 4 is the main modeL used by the met office. The same met office that came up with those warnings based on its output.

Okay the densely populated parts of thE north west.

Carlisle?

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Weather-history Maestro

Weather-history

Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
Posted

Yes but that's because they cant specifically mark altitude in a map like that, its just too localised.

 

Actually I don't think that's correct. They give warnings to local authorities. Blackpool is under such a current warning, the only things of altitude at Blackpool is the Tower and the top of the Big One, lol!

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I Cumbria Marra I Seasoned

I Cumbria Marra I

Posted
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snow winter, Warm/hot summer, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
Posted

It'll snow for definite but I'd wager they are concerned about temporary accumulations, strong winds reduced visibility etc.

Not one high resolution models Shows lying snow for lowland north west England. Infact some don't even signal snow just rain.

58M isnt low land?

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Cheese Rice Community Regular

Cheese Rice

Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
Posted

58M isnt low land?

Im referencing the densely populated southern part of Nw England where the majority of users are based.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted (edited)

Actually I don't think that's correct. They give warnings to local authorities. Blackpool is under such a current warning, the only things of altitude at Blackpool is the Tower and the top of the Big One, lol!

 

But I bet they don't think the whole of Merseyside, Greater Manchester and Lancashire will get enough snow to merit a warning but they cant draw such a sophisticated map to get every little district correct, they are broad scale warnings, they don't even have separate text to describe the warning for each individual area.  FWIW, I really doubt that Blackpool will get enough of a pasting to warrant a severe weather warning at all.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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I Cumbria Marra I Seasoned

I Cumbria Marra I

Posted
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snow winter, Warm/hot summer, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
Posted

Im referencing the densely populated southern part of Nw England where the majority of users are based.

Why not say Merseyside and cheshire then? Cumbria and North Lancashire are in the NW as well you know

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Cheese Rice Community Regular

Cheese Rice

Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
Posted

High ground of Manchester will do well 150m+

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