South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Pahahhaa! Yea if you look a page or 2 after I did reply I had felt the earth move. 1st time for 4 months ...   Can't really blame the bubs - poor thing is only 10cms long lol.

[MrNooo]

Big shower passed to the South of me here, looked to be falling as snow, it looked white in the sunlight, if it made it to the ground as snow I know not. Temp 3.1C and dropping still. 

[Catacol]

Yep - it's the truth - I just witnessed 5 minutes of sleet. Astonishing. That's me happy for another 2 years. Hooray for winter in the south...

Edited January 28, 2015 by Catacol_Highlander

[gottolovethisweather]

Pahahhaa! Yea if you look a page or 2 after I did reply I had felt the earth move. 1st time for 4 months ...   Can't really blame the bubs - poor thing is only 10cms long lol.

 

4 inches (rough approximation for 10cm) would be good figure if it were my overnight snow depth.   

 

AT 4c, DP -1.2c, W to WNW winds, feels like Temp *flippin freezing* although I am inside.

 

Good to hear the latest trend continuation via AWD, beautiful stuff. 

Edited January 28, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[swsnowlover]

Five minutes of light snowfall here at about half Four. I think tonight may bring some surprises!

[Rich_Clements]

At the snow or the dangler? PA HAHAHAAHA

you have danglers on the brain  

 

 

Anyway I think Dartmoor, Exmoor and the Mendips are going to be hammered tonight. 

[khodds]

I wonder what Ian's thoughts are re the mon/tues scenario today... Yesterday was 30% probability, SM has said in the MAD thread to ignore it.. So I guess models have backtracked (I know it's way out in FI) but just wondering?

[andy_leics22]

Ooooh v. exciting - decidedly cooler here now. Think my weather station needs a rejig - saying 23 degrees at the mo. Looking forward to the next week or so - even if we don"t get anything, the thrill of the chase is quite fun.

Would love a dangler......

You leave your love of danglers out of this

The other night someone said that they saw snow a few years ago on the 'Plymouth hoe' and now this!

[Mapantz]

I wonder what Ian's thoughts are re the mon/tues scenario today... Yesterday was 30% probability, SM has said in the MAD thread to ignore it.. So I guess models have backtracked (I know it's way out in FI) but just wondering?

He called for Amber warnings last week, look what happened there?!

[khodds]

He called for Amber warnings last week, look what happened there?!

Did he..? I don't remember that

[knocker]

GFS next Mon/Tues has another low nipping down the North Sea.

Charts courtesy weatherbell

 

[AWD]

I wonder what Ian's thoughts are re the mon/tues scenario today... Yesterday was 30% probability, SM has said in the MAD thread to ignore it.. So I guess models have backtracked (I know it's way out in FI) but just wondering?

20% - 30% probability based on 0z output Ian said.

There isn't a channel low, there never was a true channel low. It's a shallow low heading S/SE from Iceland which could potentially clip the SW bringing a spell of snow here followed by a trough disturbance heading in the same direction but further East. It's this trough disturbance that we are interested in and has the potential (that's the key word currently) to bring a spell of more organised snowfall on Mon/Tues. Forget any chatter about a channel low, I don't know where that's come from.

The 2 main features for our region next week are;

1- The shallow low that is modelled to end up going into Biscay, this more for Somerset, Dorset, Devon and Cornwall

2- The following trough disturbance behind it heading into Northern France, this more for Wiltshire, Hampshire, Gloucestershire, Bristol and Somerset.

Ignore detail too, just keep hoping the NWP model disturbances between the time period of say Sunday Evening and Wednesday Morning. As long as they do then hopefully we can increase the Meto's view of a 20/30% probalistic chance of it happening and with no marginality around during that time period then it will snow.

So far so good with the 12z GFS and 12z UKMO as these do model a spell of snow travelling South through the country as my earlier post suggested. That's all we can ask for at this range.

I could use the 12z GEM but that would be bordering on the ridiculous.

[Mapantz]

Did he..? I don't remember that

Not for here. It was for those areas further north. But, he said that he was expecting Amber warnings to be issued. In the north west regional thread, everyone was bashing the MetO because they didn't get much snow, despite them being bang on the money. The finger didn't get pointed anywhere else!

Somebody posted a reply in the MOD thread, to which I agree. I don't see it as an outlier.

There we go! Great post by AWD ^

Edited January 28, 2015 by Mapantz

[legritter]

20% - 30% probability based on 0z output Ian said.

There isn't a channel low, there never was a true channel low. It's a shallow low heading S/SE from Iceland which could potentially clip the SW bringing a spell of snow here followed by a trough disturbance heading in the same direction but further East. It's this trough disturbance that we are interested in and has the potential (that's the key word currently) to bring a spell of more organised snowfall on Mon/Tues. Forget any chatter about a channel low, I don't know where that's come from.

The 2 main features for our region next week are;

1- The shallow low that is modelled to end up going into Biscay, this more for Somerset, Dorset, Devon and Cornwall

2- The following trough disturbance behind it heading into Northern France, this more for Wiltshire, Hampshire, Gloucestershire, Bristol and Somerset.

Ignore detail too, just keep hoping the NWP model disturbances between the time period of say Sunday Evening and Wednesday Morning. As long as they do then hopefully we can increase the Meto's view of a 20/30% probalistic chance of it happening and with no marginality around during that time period then it will snow.

So far so good with the 12z GFS and 12z UKMO as these do model a spell of snow travelling South through the country as my earlier post suggested. That's all we can ask for at this range.

I could use the 12z GEM but that would be bordering on the ridiculous.

just going to post similar thoughts ,very good potential and still time and possibilitys for atlantic low to track nearer our shores on future runs ,also front coming south on tuesday gives very good potential if it comes off ,each day will throw up new features new challenges for us to try and fathom out possibilitys certainly Not boring ,and right now nice cold air with showers moving in over night ,curtain and lamp post and of course radar watching ,stand by your beds gang ,cheers 

[khodds]

Thanks all for your replies - much appreciated

[Nights King]

Showers that are over south Ireland and heading for west country look very weak and sporadic even out at sea and nothing like the huge one in north midlands that's crossing the whole damn country, they just don't seem to survive with any real potency in northerly's for our region.

 

Don't worry khodds the first one will clip cornwall and devon then the second feature will just go east of us...

[Jayfromcardiff]

Showers that are over south Ireland and heading for west country look very weak and sporadic even out at sea and nothing like the huge one in north midlands that's crossing the whole damn country, they just don't seem to survive with any real potency in northerly's for our region.

 

Don't worry khodds the first one will clip cornwall and devon then the second feature will just go east of us...

Finding it annoying myself, we'll get our chance......eventually...sometime.

[knocker]

It should perhaps be pointed out that at this stage the ECM isn't interested in a second feature travelling down southbound to the east next Tuesday.

Edited January 28, 2015 by knocker

[Nights King]

you have danglers on the brain

 

 

Anyway I think Dartmoor, Exmoor and the Mendips are going to be hammered tonight. 

 

I can't see where the ppn is going to come from to be honest.. cold enough yes but no ppn.

[Barbel]

Snowed for 10 mins (at 16.10h) at the Donkey Sanctuary on hill above Sidmouth.

[stratty]

Is the precipitation to the SW of Ireland coming this way? 

http://www.sat24.com/?ir=true&ra=true&li=false

 

(go to 18.30pm)

 

Edited January 28, 2015 by stratty

[andy_leics22]

Showers that are over south Ireland and heading for west country look very weak and sporadic even out at sea and nothing like the huge one in north midlands that's crossing the whole damn country, they just don't seem to survive with any real potency in northerly's for our region.

Don't worry khodds the first one will clip cornwall and devon then the second feature will just go east of us...

I've just posted in the Midlands thread about my change of heart after looking at the models. I honestly think we'll start to see snow showers packing into Wales around 9pm ish and penetrating quite a way inland. It may look like there is hardly anything heading towards Western Wales at the moment but I fully expect that to change over the next 3-4 hours.

I think Somerset is a good location for tonight and tomorrow. To be honest most of the Western side should do well. Bristol, Somerset, Devon, Gloucestershire all look to be in a decent position.

I'm even fairly positive now about some snow showers coming as far inland as Oxfordshire, Reading, South Coast etc...

It's going to be a case of radar watching and hoping luck is on your side!

Edited January 28, 2015 by andy_leics22

[khodds]

Showers that are over south Ireland and heading for west country look very weak and sporadic even out at sea and nothing like the huge one in north midlands that's crossing the whole damn country, they just don't seem to survive with any real potency in northerly's for our region.

 

Don't worry khodds the first one will clip cornwall and devon then the second feature will just go east of us...

Sounds about right. We will just have to enjoy the "cold". I simple can't wait until next week to be let down... Again

[*Stormforce~beka*]

I'm bored of radar watching already lol

[khodds]

I've just posted in the Midlands thread about my change of heart after looking at the models. I honestly think we'll start to see snow showers packing into Wales around 9pm ish and penetrating quite a way inland. It may look like there is hardly anything heading towards Western Wales at the moment but I fully expect that to change over the next 3-4 hours.

I think Somerset is a good location for tonight and tomorrow. To be honest most of the Western side should do well. Bristol, Somerset, Devon, Gloucestershire all look to be in a decent position.

I'm even fairly positive now about some snow showers coming as far inland as Oxfordshire, Reading, South Coast etc...

It's going to be a case of radar watching and hoping luck is on your side!

I hope you are right!