South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat

[knocker]

Hi Knocker, wouldn't the ECM make it a more marginal event due to the warm sectors as the system is to Far East?

 

I don't think so. I can't post the chart but at 00z Tuesday the low is centred Wales and the SW. It's roughly tracking NNW/SSE into N. France. I'll be very interested in Ian's views on this.

[AWD]

I think the first shot of cold (ie later today until Friday) will be a tamer affair and not provide much in the way of snowfall for our region.

The temps are marginal as are the heights/thickness values meaning that any showers that do fall over the next 48hrs will likely be of rain/sleet/wet snow to lower levels with true snow showers restricted to inland, elevated areas for the most part.

The Mendips, Cotswolds & Exmoor are my favoured spots for the next 48hrs, although even here, nothing overly exciting on the offing really.

Friday is well documented to be a tad less cold therefore PPN will be rain for most of us with any wintriness restricted to the highest of ground in our region.

Saturday and more especially Sunday onwards looks much more interesting for our region as things stand. From Sunday onwards marginality is swept away from our region and for most, any PPN that does fall will be of snow with some model and ens output showing a shallow low diving SSE across the SW. If we can stay on the eastern side of this low, a notable snow event across much of our region is possible. A long way out currently but it is something that's gained a tad more support throughout the 0z runs so needs watching.

Winter returns then, although I would temper expectations on snowfall for the time being. Hopefully some negative overnight minima and harsh frosts also add to the wintry feel over the next 10 days or so.

[festivalking]

We all know where that low will hit don't we (think March 2013) lol

Therapy is still on going after that episode.

[Argyle1980]

We don't need another 2013...

Kinda have the feeling this one is going to be a little different:) ..

Again keep the faith people

[khodds]

I was feeling positive but to have to wait for Monday for our snow to be taken away from us again... I don't think I'll cope! Lol! If it's modelled this far out then I think it'll likely be taken away from us.... Hope I'm wrong

Edited January 28, 2015 by khodds

[MPG]

W COUNTRY Once cold weather establishes during Weds, we anticipate it remaining effectively dominant through to (at least) end of nxt week.

At least the end of next week?? Very interesting.

[Nights King]

Met office app has upgraded my snow for tonight and tomorrow

[offerman]

Not great in my neck of the woods according to MO!

Looking at the charts though I can't but help but feel there might me a little snow here.

[MPG]

Temperatures in the Bristol area do seem to stay around 5-6 for the weekend. You wouldn't expect anything but rain would you....

[Bristawl Si]

Temperatures in the Bristol area do seem to stay around 5-6 for the weekend. You wouldn't expect anything but rain would you....

I think more interest will come into play Sunday and into early part of next week

[AWD]

Temperatures in the Bristol area do seem to stay around 5-6 for the weekend. You wouldn't expect anything but rain would you....

It depends if that's the "out of shower" temperature though. 5c - 6c in the sunshine excluding the windchill sounds about right but when any showers come along I would expect the temperature and freezing level to fall accordingly.

Not expecting any "true" snow in Bristol for the time being but wintry showers are possible anywhere across the region, especially at night too.

Hopefully it will be our turn next week although I'm not overly confident YET.

[AWD]

Away from the imminent colder weather too, the cold front has arrived here with some atrocious squalls associated with it.

These are some of the strongest winds I've witnessed all winter.

[AWD]

Latest from Ian;

"W COUNTRY Wintry showers tonight/Thurs. A 30% chance small snow accumulations in parts of S England, e.g. Salisbury Plain; most seeing none. Further ahead, despite the colder weather, we currently don't forsee any real snow issues here Fri-Sun. Some uncertainty nxt week."

Broadly similar to my thoughts.

[festivalking]

Latest from Ian;

"W COUNTRY Wintry showers tonight/Thurs. A 30% chance small snow accumulations in parts of S England, e.g. Salisbury Plain; most seeing none. Further ahead, despite the colder weather, we currently don't forsee any real snow issues here Fri-Sun. Some uncertainty nxt week."

Broadly similar to my thoughts.

 

Yep think we need to step back and not get carried away with the charts. Unless you live at a decent elevation and away from the coasts its just standard winter fare. We can only hope that the uncertainty of next week graduates to something interesting in terms of snow for mid to lower elevations. At least the models are always evolving and changing so plenty to look out for.

Edited January 28, 2015 by festivalking

[gottolovethisweather]

W COUNTRY Once cold weather establishes during Weds, we anticipate it remaining effectively dominant through to (at least) end of nxt week.

At least the end of next week?? Very interesting.

 

No breakdown yet then?

Edited January 28, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

Latest from UKMO backs up my thoughts and AWD and understandably fergies too. 

 

Original link here - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gbuqu9f0x#?tab=fiveDay&fcTime=1422489600

 

 

• Tonight:
•  
• Cold, blustery night with rain and sleet showers and snow possible over the hills and Moors. Patchy frost, away from the far west, with risk of icy patches. Minimum Temperature 0C.
•  
• Thursday:
•  
• A cold and blustery day with sunny spells and wintry showers, these will be most frequent in the west with any snow accumulations confined to the hills and Moors. Maximum Temperature 6C.
•  
• Outlook for Friday to Sunday:
•  
• Sunshine and some showers on Friday. Northerly winds will draw down colder air through the weekend with sunshine and wintry showers, these most likely in the west. Patchy frost overnight.
•  
• Updated at: 0255 on Wed 28 Jan 2015

 

Maybe a pleasant surprise for som in the lead up to the weekend with our greatest snow hopes as stated previously, coming alongside the even colder 850s which aren't projected to be marginal in any way, shape or form. This latter aspect could be yet be further extended to accommodate more than the first few days of February.

Edited January 28, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[A.J]

Sounds like pretty much standard winter fare to me....nothing especially exciting

[AWD]

Imagine if this verified;

Courtesy of Nick in the MOD thread. That would cause eurphoria in here.

[Nights King]

Latest from UKMO backs up my thoughts and AWD and understandably fergies too. 

 

Original link here - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gbuqu9f0x#?tab=fiveDay&fcTime=1422489600

 

 

• Tonight:
•  
• Cold, blustery night with rain and sleet showers and snow possible over the hills and Moors. Patchy frost, away from the far west, with risk of icy patches. Minimum Temperature 0C.
•  
• Thursday:
•  
• A cold and blustery day with sunny spells and wintry showers, these will be most frequent in the west with any snow accumulations confined to the hills and Moors. Maximum Temperature 6C.
•  
• Outlook for Friday to Sunday:
•  
• Sunshine and some showers on Friday. Northerly winds will draw down colder air through the weekend with sunshine and wintry showers, these most likely in the west. Patchy frost overnight.
•  
• Updated at: 0255 on Wed 28 Jan 2015

 

Maybe a pleasant surprise for som in the lead up to the weekend with our greatest snow hopes as stated previously, coming alongside the even colder 850s which aren't projected to be marginal in any way, shape or form. This latter aspect could be yet be further extended to accommodate more than the first few days of February.

 

So we have a slim chance over the next 24/48 hours especially over the hills but no real threat until Monday now... Where have i seen this put back before..

 

Monday is a long way off and from what I remember met office only gave it a 30% probability so thats a 70% chance of not seeing any real snow in region? 

[Nights King]

Imagine if this verified;

image.jpg

Courtesy of Nick in the MOD thread. That would cause eurphoria in here.

 

I'd gladly eat my hat and film it for you if a channel low was to ever verify. 

[John Badrick]

I'd gladly eat my hat and film it for you if a channel low was to ever verify.

Will definitely hold you to that!!!

[gottolovethisweather]

Sounds like pretty much standard winter fare to me....nothing especially exciting

 

One single snowflake will make things exciting for me and for that I live in hope. AJ, you must cheer up you know. 

 

Currently a violent squall passing through in Newbury, banging noises outside and wind and rain hammering against the windows.

 

AT 9.4c and down she goes, on with the colder air we go.

Edited January 28, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[Mapantz]

Imagine if this verified;

image.jpg

Courtesy of Nick in the MOD thread. That would cause eurphoria in here.

I cannot see that without a microscope?

[gottolovethisweather]

So we have a slim chance over the next 24/48 hours especially over the hills but no real threat until Monday now... Where have i seen this put back before..

 

Monday is a long way off and from what I remember met office only gave it a 30% probability so thats a 70% chance of not seeing any real snow in region? 

 

Monday is five days away, yes but deeper/lower/colder 850s mean less marginality. Marginality being the bane of our Winter so far, especially more so for us lowland dwelling folk. Confidence is quite high over the colder air infiltrating our shores, that for me is key and then during the Arctic flows anything could pop up almost anywhere. A note to others too, as mentioned elsewhere Friday will a slightly warmer day before the Arctic plunge arrives at the weekend.

[Nights King]

Monday is five days away, yes but deeper/lower/colder 850s mean less marginality. Marginality being the bane of our Winter so far, especially more so for us lowland dwelling folk. Confidence is quite high over the colder air infiltrating our shores, that for me is key and then during the Arctic flows anything could pop up almost anywhere. A note to others too, as mentioned elsewhere Friday will a slightly warmer day before the Arctic plunge arrives at the weekend.

 

So your saying even if this was to end up modeled further north and east then mild sectors wouldn't ruin the party and leave us all with rain?

 

That is assuming it doesn't just hit north france.

Edited January 28, 2015 by Nights King