South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat

[andy_leics22]

We are only tackling Thurs in any detail for now. Tentative accumulation signal in HRES (UKV etc) looks essentially S of M4 (Somerset, Wilts etc) given flow, but detail not wholly trustworthy yet re spatial extent.

 Yes - mentioned this here before. A known model issue (produces showers that are too 'clumpy').

Ok thanks for the reply mate. Appreciate it.

[gottolovethisweather]

12z GEFS for the West Country showing the increased possibility of wintry PPN over the next 8-10 days or so.

Up to 95% likelihood at one point. lol.

image.jpg

 

No you're wrong it's actually twice all within the next 36 hours, but that's just being picky. 

Edited January 27, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[khodds]

Mendips and environs to E of there is the only part of W Country where a snow accumulation signal of any note has persisted through various recent runs of all more consistent modelling (ECMWF, UKMO-GM, E4, UKV....). Other areas yes, but Mendips has been a focus. Unsurprising given flow direction.

Thanks Ian, much appreciate the reply. We will know if it's bad when you are reporting from the points west roof top and talking of staying in hotels

[Guest]

Eyes down for the Points West forecast.

[jtay]

South Today weather time. All eyes on Alexis.

[A.J]

Hi fergie, do you think there's much chance of snow in Cardiff? Its nice to see the phrase "south of the m4 mentioned" as the majority of snow often happens north of it. Cheers.

I can't believe you had the balls to post that Jay 

[Frosty_wsm]

Eyes down for the Points West forecast.

If it ain't the m4 it's the a370 instead lol, actually the a370 is just up the road from my back yard so I should be far enough away from the coast to see some snow falling.

[Crockel]

South Today weather time. All eyes on Alexis.

I have got to say that Reham was always my favourite!

L

Ps Alexis's forecast didn't exactly send the pulse racing

[andy_leics22]

I can't believe you had the balls to post that Jay 

Until my dying day, "will it snow in carlisle?" And "will it snow in cardiff" will always live with me

[jtay]

I have got to say that Reham was always my favourite!

L

Ps Alexis's forecast didn't exactly send the pulse racing

Not, really no.

I think Reham has bigger fish to fry these days.

[Chris Wsm]

Until my dying day, "will it snow in carlisle?" And "will it snow in cardiff" will always live with me

Will probably miss both , but you can be a 100% sure it will snow on Narborough Road , our old haunting ground lol . 

 

Im now South of the M4 , Your North , let the battle begin . 

 

Edited January 27, 2015 by Chris Wsm

[somersetsnow]

Missed the Points West Forecast................Anything of Interest?????????????

[dec10snow]

Missed the Points West Forecast................Anything of Interest?????????????

It's up online

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=756146651147147

[Dorsetbred]

Ok  based on what I am hearing in here, I have rushed out to the local ASDA, and topped up my salt shakers, before the local authorities declare a state of emergency & people panic buy. 

I've now got 2 salt shakers full and ready to dose my paths and driveway.

The bag of sand from the grandchildrens playpit is ready at the front door.

The snow shovel is hanging in the airing cupboard getting warm and ready for use.

Wellingtons, inverted over the radiators in readiness.

OK, I'm ready JUNO or whatever your name is, do your worst.

[Nights King]

Missed the Points West Forecast................Anything of Interest?????????????

 

Normal winter weather it could be best described, few wintry showers maybe dusting in places especially hills.

[Raidan]

Light snow was falling just after 7pm here!

[Polar Bear]

Well I got my salt supplies in. Am ready although I think I panicked bought.. Far too much

[karlos1983]

See, as stated earlier, writing anything off in these setups is mind boggling! blooody typical it will snow tomorrow night when I'm in Holland!! Grrhhhh

[Mapantz]

See, as stated earlier, writing anything off in these setups is mind boggling! blooody typical it will snow tomorrow night when I'm in Holland!! Grrhhhh

I'm still firm on my thoughts that no snow will fall here. I cannot speak for Poole or Bournemouth- even 9 to 14 miles away, respectively, you seem to get lower temps/dewpoints than me.

[Mapantz]

I'm not supposed to post this but as I've hidden all details and done it as a screenshot, it should be ok.

Just for fun of course but this is a 3KM model chart;

[andy_leics22]

I'm not supposed to post this but as I've hidden all details and done it as a screenshot, it should be ok.

Just for fun of course but this is a 3KM model chart;

Screenshot_2015-01-27-20-12-57.png

YESS!! Snizzle for Oxford

[somersetsnow]

It's up online

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=756146651147147

Thanks. 

[Mapantz]

YESS!! Snizzle for Oxford

A bit more than that if I run it back. It is the small scale front that Ian eluded to. You cannot take it too seriously though, but it has been quite good for recent guidance.

[Jayfromcardiff]

I'm not supposed to post this but as I've hidden all details and done it as a screenshot, it should be ok.

Just for fun of course but this is a 3KM model chart;

Screenshot_2015-01-27-20-12-57.png

Sorry but what time is that for? Cheers.

[Mapantz]

Sorry but what time is that for? Cheers.

That's for 1pm on Thursday.

Some bone rattling windchill figures showing up too. I like extremes, for statistical purposes.

Edited January 27, 2015 by Mapantz