South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat

[karlos1983]

That's for 1pm on Thursday.

Oh I'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad, still be in Holland!

Oh I'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad, still be in Holland!

That's not what I wrote, but you get the point

[andy_leics22]

Will probably miss both , but you can be a 100% sure it will snow on Narborough Road , our old haunting ground lol . 

 

Im now South of the M4 , Your North , let the battle begin . 

 

mapm4.jpg

Yep I think you'll do better than us to be honest. West is best for this cold spell.

[The Enforcer]

West is best for this cold spell.

Nah, he's been poo-pooing it for days.

[karlos1983]

Nah, he's been poo-pooing it for days.

 

LOL

[J10]

Nah, he's been poo-pooing it for days.

 

 

 I know Karlos has already t beaten me but still

[Nights King]

Does any of that affect the Mendips? Something to mullender over.

 

If those ppn maps were correct it would feel like pay day

 

Thursday is so close yet at the same time it can change so much forecast wise before then..

[fromey]

If those ppn maps were correct it would feel like pay day

 

Thursday is so close yet at the same time it can change so much forecast wise before then..

you never know might even get a bristol streamer out of it ala 2009!!

 fromey

[fergieweather]

Yep I think you'll do better than us to be honest. West is best for this cold spell.

 ....or North and North-West, if we are to be national in our outlook!

 

In all seriousness however, for much (probably most) of southern England, the period Thurs-Sun looks highly unlikely to yield much by way of snow of any note (some areas will see few, if any, showers), versus the far more compelling signal for disruptive conditions in parts of the north and northwest, which may yet warrant upgrades to UKMO warnings as detail is honed. So, whilst I'm sure some hyping of snow threat in the south will inevitably appear in media, social media or web forums, in reality it'll tend to be patchy in any accumulative sense; generally small amounts where it does settle; and otherwise unremarkable when viewed against climatology. For much of the southern England population, it'll be the windchill grabbing their attention as opposed to snow. Further ahead, the detail of smaller-scale forcing etc and nuance details around perturbations (or even discrete low centres) running down in the flow Sun-Tues is impossible to gauge for now given varying model handling, as might be expected at this range. Thus, nothing prescriptive about areal snow threat into next week (aside from obvious coastal areas in a northerly set-up) is even worth writing about until we see more consistent handling of developments.

Edited January 27, 2015 by fergieweather

[Daniel*]

An earthquake with a magnitude of 2.9 has been recorded in Hampshire, the British Geological Survey has confirmed.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hampshire-31009707

[shaky]

....or North and North-West, if we are to be national in our outlook!

 

In all seriousness however, for much (probably most) of southern England, the period Thurs-Sun looks highly unlikely to yield much by way of snow of any note (some areas will see few, if any, showers), versus the far more compelling signal for disruptive conditions in parts of the north and northwest, which may yet warrant upgrades to UKMO warnings as detail is honed. So, whilst I'm sure some hyping of snow threat in the south will inevitably appear in media, social media or web forums, in reality it'll tend to be patchy in any accumulative sense; generally small amounts where it does settle; and otherwise unremarkable when viewed against climatology. For much of the southern England population, it'll be the windchill grabbing their attention as opposed to snow. Further ahead, the detail of smaller-scale forcing etc and nuance details around perturbations (or even discrete low centres) running down in the flow Sun-Tues is impossible to gauge for now given varying model handling, as might be expected at this range. Thus, nothing prescriptive about areal snow threat into next week (aside from obvious coastal areas in a northerly set-up) is even worth writing about until we see more consistent handling of developments.

how is early thursday morning looking for central southern england!! Still looking interesting?

[Guest]

Hmm....so despite some tentatively promising signs it looks like this Winter will continue to underwhelm re snow for our neck of the woods.

Give it another 10 days and i'll defo be calling for an early warm Spring. Fuerteventura in 2nd week of March cant come quick enough.

[isleofwightsnowgal]

Don't mind admitting really fed up again! Pretty much zero chance of seeing even a flake down here it's really depressing! Love snow n not seen any for 2 yrs n will Prob be saying it this time nxt yr only it'll be 3yrs!! Ugh

[fergieweather]

Hmm....so despite some tentatively promising signs it looks like this Winter will continue to underwhelm re snow for our neck of the woods.

Give it another 10 days and i'll defo be calling for an early warm Spring. Fuerteventura in 2nd week of March cant come quick enough.

 There WILL be snow for some areas. That's for sure. But it's important to strike a balance of expectation versus likely outcome... at least until we can offer good confidence on the scope of features likely to run south.

 

To quote UKMO Chief Forecaster:

"Some snow accumulations further S possible too from later Wednesday night but much less confidence and likely to be less widespread.... prob30 of local 2 cm accumulations to low levels Midlands, Wales and western half of southern England (by/through Thurs AM)..".

Edited January 27, 2015 by fergieweather

[dec10snow]

There WILL be snow for some areas. That's for sure. But it's important to strike a balance of expectation versus likely outcome... at least until we can offer good confidence on the scope of features likely to run south.

To be fair, I think the only skewers of the expectations come from the terrible 'journalism' from the usual suspects... It actually irritates me how OTT their headlines are!

Either way, although settling snow and accumulations would be lovely... I just want to see a damn snow flake!!!

Edited January 27, 2015 by dec10snow

[andy_leics22]

There WILL be snow for some areas. That's for sure. But it's important to strike a balance of expectation versus likely outcome... at least until we can offer good confidence on the scope of features likely to run south.

I bet you never realised how much snow was held as the holy grail for many amateur Weather watchers until you came on here

[Guest]

There WILL be snow for some areas. That's for sure. But it's important to strike a balance of expectation versus likely outcome... at least until we can offer good confidence on the scope of features likely to run south.

Still possibilities early next week Ian? Depends whether the Northerly flow is relatively unstable, producing troughs of showers or if that pest, the Azores high, decides to quickly settle things down in the West, with a drier northerly flow.

[andy_leics22]

To be fair, I think the only skewers of the expectations come from the terrible 'journalism' from the usual suspects... It actually irritates me how OTT their headlines are!

Either way, although settling snow and accumulations would be lovely... I just want to see a damn snow flake!!!

This may sound a bit far fetched, but I think it should be made illegal for the newspapers to put scare mongering headlines about the Weather when it's completely false and inaccurate.

It puts fear into some people when they see it and some even go panic buying because they think they will be buried under 3 feet of snow, power lines will go down and they will be unable to get out!

[karlos1983]

2cm..........  BANK!!!!!!!!

[Man With Beard]

Of course Fergie's advice is the most reliable, that's not to say it is infallible ( no offence Fergie!) because the weather does peculiar things! So I'd say a decent snowfall for the south cannot be discounted for this weekend. The charts simply don't allow a complete write-off in terms of possibility. I mentioned on the MOD a while ago and most agreed - can anyone remember a significant snowfall predicted more than 5 days out, at least in the last 10 years? I can't. Jan 2010 was picked up on at T48, I recall!

[Kiwi]

Hmm....so despite some tentatively promising signs it looks like this Winter will continue to underwhelm re snow for our neck of the woods.

Give it another 10 days and i'll defo be calling for an early warm Spring. Fuerteventura in 2nd week of March cant come quick enough.

mmm, yes all very ..very underwhelming; all the cold without the snow seems so pointless!

Likewise, looking forward to 2 weeks in Fuerteventura (Cotillo/Lajares) last week of March ...always reliable for a good dose of sunshine, strong breeze and even stronger G&Ts....can't wait!

and hoping to return to a long, hot, v early spring ---summer. 

 

Edit:

Although they all seem v excited on the MOD re the pub run GFS ....maybe I should'nt be so pessimistic

Edited January 27, 2015 by Kiwi

[Guest]

mmm, yes all very ..very underwhelming; all the cold without the snow seems so pointless!

Likewise, looking forward to 2 weeks in Fuerteventura (Cotillo/Lajares) last week of March ...always reliable for a good dose of sunshine, strong breeze and even stronger G&Ts....can't wait!

and hoping to return to a long, hot, v early spring ---summer.

Corralejo - can vouch for the strong G&Ts - Bombay sapphire and none of that weights&measures nonsense. Freepour rules!

Still looks like the 18z has just thrown a curveball for early next week, with a Channel low-type scenario being dangled.

[Argyle1980]

Oh did someone order a channel low! Interesting times people and all to play for along with better blocking in the Atlantic.

I do think the fun begins on Sunday for us down here in the far west once that cold air digs in.

Keep the faith people

[Zephyr]

Oh did someone order a channel low! Interesting times people and all to play for along with better blocking in the Atlantic.image.jpg

I do think the fun begins on Sunday for us down here in the far west once that cold air digs in.

Keep the faith people

 

 

Don't tell me the chanting is finally going to be paying off, 

[Daniel*]

Did someone order a Channel Low? 850s gives the thumbs up.

Perhaps the chanting is working! keep it going...

[mountsbaysnow]

Oh did someone order a channel low! Interesting times people and all to play for along with better blocking in the Atlantic. image.jpg

I do think the fun begins on Sunday for us down here in the far west once that cold air digs in.

Keep the faith people

Well hello channel low