South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat

[dec10snow]

Oh did someone order a channel low! Interesting times people and all to play for along with better blocking in the Atlantic.image.jpg

I do think the fun begins on Sunday for us down here in the far west once that cold air digs in.

Keep the faith people

We've lured it onto the charts, now we must carry on to keep the interest...

CHANNEL LOW, CHANNEL LOW, CHANNEL LOW!!

[dancing daisy]

Ok, so we're all going to ignore the professional forecaster and keep on looking for rocking horse poop in pretty pictures?

Just so I'm clear...

Edited January 27, 2015 by dancing daisy

[MPG]

The only thing missing are some cold temps conducive for lying snow. 4-5 not that cold.

[dec10snow]

Ok, so we're all going to ignore the professional forecaster and keep on looking for rocking horse poop in pretty pictures?

Just so I'm clear...

That's exactly right

No, I think most (I do anyway) realise at this range it's all for fun really, and that's all I'm doing - having some fun... I mean, there's been a good few downbeat posts in here the last couple days, we need something to lighten the mood

[andy_leics22]

Sorry to disappoint but that possible Channel low is about 200 miles too far South. The precip is way off currently.

It will change before then though, so we need to look for trends and if it's still there at t78!

[Nights King]

The only thing missing are some cold temps conducive for lying snow. 4-5 not that cold.

 

Its cold enough on hills

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Corralejo - can vouch for the strong G&Ts - Bombay sapphire and none of that weights&measures nonsense. Freepour rules!

Still looks like the 18z has just thrown a curveball for early next week, with a Channel low-type scenario being dangled.

Repeat after me ... CHANNEL LOW! CHANNEL LOW!! CHANNEL LOW! CHANNEL LOOOOOOOOOOOOW!!

An earthquake with a magnitude of 2.9 has been recorded in Hampshire, the British Geological Survey has confirmed.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hampshire-31009707

image.jpg

Yup felt it! Sofa shook from side to side rumblings and a massive bang. Strange goings on ...

[Mark Neal.]

Sorry to disappoint but that possible Channel low is about 200 miles too far South. The precip is way off currently.

It will change before then though, so we need to look for trends and if it's still there at t78!

Very true, but a disturbance on the 18z if you look closely would bring something perhaps more interesting?  Especially further west and sw.

 

 

 

[Argyle1980]

Sorry to disappoint but that possible Channel low is about 200 miles too far South. The precip is way off currently.

It will change before then though, so we need to look for trends and if it's still there at t78!

Could be gone tomorrow or it could shift North or South over time.

That's what makes model watching so interesting... Watch for trends people and enjoy what comes our way.

Very true, but a disturbance on the 18z if you look closely would bring something perhaps more interesting?  Especially further west and sw.

 

 

MARD 1.gif MARD 2.gif

Thank you mark

[dancing daisy]

That's exactly right

No, I think most (I do anyway) realise at this range it's all for fun really, and that's all I'm doing - having some fun... I mean, there's been a good few downbeat posts in here the last couple days, we need something to lighten the mood

Yeah I've noticed some right old grumps in here lately.

I only come on here for the banter but everyone is taking this weather malarkey far too seriously!

[BristolBaggie]

Poor Ian earlier tried to tell us the weather but was let down with his graphics.. Thought he coped with it really well. Live TV can be a risky business!,

[Mapantz]

I'm looking forward to fishing in the colder weather. An offshore wind will be perfect for spinning down at Kimmeridge over the weekend.

Ps: A big thankyou to Ian for taking the time to post in our regional thread, it really is a privilege.

Edited January 27, 2015 by Mapantz

[fergieweather]

Oh did someone order a channel low! Interesting times people and all to play for along with better blocking in the Atlantic.image.jpg

I do think the fun begins on Sunday for us down here in the far west once that cold air digs in.

Keep the faith people

Worth noting this is GFS picking-up on the EC-ENS story from runs yesterday I described here earlier today. Being closely watched. Still lowish-prob but again signposted in 12z EC too.

[Frosty_wsm]

Sorry to disappoint but that possible Channel low is about 200 miles too far South. The precip is way off currently.

It will change before then though, so we need to look for trends and if it's still there at t78!

We all know where that low will hit don't we (think March 2013) lol

[andy_leics22]

Worth noting this is GFS picking-up on the EC-ENS story from runs yesterday I described here earlier today. Being closely watched. Still lowish-prob but again signposted in 12z EC too.

If that Channel low is still showing on the models in 3 days time, there will be a LOT of excitement in this thread i'm sure.

The probability is though, it will be gone by tomorrow mornings runs and there will be some moaning in the model thread

[khodds]

Oh what I would give to witness a true channel low.,. Please please come true! Just for this regional threads sanity!

[fergieweather]

Sorry to disappoint but that possible Channel low is about 200 miles too far South. The precip is way off currently.

It will change before then though, so we need to look for trends and if it's still there at t78!

Yes, but some EC members were heading it straight into S/SW UK... a fair ensemble spread for now, even if does happen.

[andy_leics22]

Yes, but some EC members were heading it straight into S/SW UK... a fair ensemble spread for now, even if does happen.

Were they? Ok, that makes things slightly more interesting!

Anyway folks, the next 3 days is still all to play for! Snow showers and streamers will no doubt crop up just about anywhere so it's going to be fun to follow. Not as fun if you miss out on a snow shower by a few miles though!

[kumquat]

We all know where that low will hit don't we (think March 2013) lol

Was that the night and morning the Channel Islands got hit? Think I even saw a dusting down in St. Ives that week.

[knocker]

A couple of interesting charts on the GFS this morning.

Charts courtesy weatherbell

 

[Dorsetbred]

Mornin, well it was like walkin into a cauldron of moisture this morning, some time ago. The wind from the SW is gusting & causing the drizzle to swirl & twist in everywhich way. Lampost watching was great as it looked just like snow falling, but of course it wasn't (not @8C). Reminded me of the NY webcams from yesterday, could almost have been there, surreal.

Changeover day then, cooler by later (notice I do say cooler), will be interesting to see what the wind is delivering later today, in form of windchill. Nothing too exciting, but I had my fix this morning, it was an interesting session to be walking in.

[karlos1983]

Well sitting at Gatwick airport and quite simply drewling at this mornings output. GFS fantastic, UKMO fantastic, ECM can do one with its warm sector, needs to be a bit further west. All in all the trend this morning is clear, *potential* for our beloved and sometimes hated CHANNEL LOW!!! Bet it's gone above 30% now, surely 33% :-p

If I were living in the Channel Island, I would be watching future runs with great interest!

EDIT: I'm going to stick my neck out and say I would be very surprised if most of our region don't at least see snow falling out of th sky at some point between midnight tonight and the back end of next week!

Edited January 28, 2015 by karlos1983

[knocker]

A couple of interesting charts on the GFS this morning.

Charts courtesy weatherbell

 

The ECM has a slightly different track for this feature, bringing it closer to the SW and could bring some sig, amounts of snow. Needs watching next two or three days.

Edited January 28, 2015 by knocker

[karlos1983]

The ECM has a slightly different track for this feature, bringing it closer to the SW and could bring some sig, amounts of snow. Needs watching next two or three days.

Hi Knocker, wouldn't the ECM make it a more marginal event due to the warm sectors as the system is to Far East?

[Skullzrulerz]

Good morning everyone and its day zero of the cold invasion.

Right now the temperature is 8.5c and its steadying at the moment.

Lots of rain right now

Tomorrow in was hoping for some snow but instead I will be getting a dumping of rain according to BBC.