South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat

[Mapantz]

The second front is quite a bit behind what the NMM shows. Or is the NMM moving it too fast?

[gottolovethisweather]

I cannot see that without a microscope?

 

Original post from Nick L as below.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82366-model-output-discussion-23rd-jan-12z-onwards/?p=3143059

[Mapantz]

Original post from Nick L as below.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82366-model-output-discussion-23rd-jan-12z-onwards/?p=3143059

Cheers. Wish I hadn't looked now. lol!

Reminds me of December 2010. A bit of snow here, then rain washed it all away as the warm sector crept it.

[gottolovethisweather]

So your saying even if this was to end up modeled further north and east then mild sectors wouldn't ruin the party and leave us all with rain?

 

That is assuming it doesn't just hit north france.

 

Yes, usual caveats apply and no one knows for sure what will happen, all modelling and amateur/professional forecasts alike are second guessing Mother Nature. You are but talking of one surface feature after all. People often seemingly stress over the specifics when the bigger picture is far more important in reality. Another take on these aspects is provided by Nick F in the MOD thread where he is currently discussing such topics.

 

Here is a quoted section from one of this morning's posts from him.

 

"Anyway, a northerly, without fronts/troughs/disturbances in the flow will generally create a 'wishbone' effect whereby inland areas stay dry. sunny and cold while northern Scotland, eastern and western coasts see the showers. Trains of showers can set up in certain areas too, such as the 'Pembrokeshire Dangler' which can bring continuous showers to SW Wales and far southwest England, bringing large accumulations if it falls as snow.

 

But, there is potential with the northerly for secondary features to run south in the flow from the weekend, late Sat and early Sun, EC shows a low dropping south down the east coast which may accentuate shower activity"

 

IMHO, radar looking good for some wintriness by mid to late Afternoon for you Mulls.

Edited January 28, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[Blizzardof82]

Squall line coming through now as wind has whipped up, I can see on radar behind it in Wales precipitation over hills already sleet.

[kumquat]

Front has hit here with hail and very strong gusts. Let's get that temp down, baby!

Edited January 28, 2015 by kumquat

[Mapantz]

I don't know if the radar images are erroneous or if the front is becoming fragmented? No rain is forecasted here.

[A.J]

I don't know if the radar images are erroneous or if the front is becoming fragmented? No rain is forecasted here.

looks like's there's a few glitches on the last few frames

[A.J]

One single snowflake will make things exciting for me and for that I live in hope. AJ, you must cheer up you know. 

 

Currently a violent squall passing through in Newbury, banging noises outside and wind and rain hammering against the windows.

 

AT 9.4c and down she goes, on with the colder air we go.

lol....just posting what I see in the met forecast.........my personal view?.....the forecast is underplaying the snow potential, but then again, I'm no pro

[kumquat]

Temp has dropped a full 2 degrees since that front passed. Onwards and downwards!

[gottolovethisweather]

lol....just posting what I see in the met forecast.........my personal view?.....the forecast is underplaying the snow potential, but then again, I'm no pro

 

I want the old AJ back then. I'll await the Speckled Hen updates as the snow starts falling, always good to see in that case.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Ian f very active on Twitter : 30% chance of small acc of snow in South . Sleet/Snow showers tonight , but NO repeat 09/10 .

Small development thurs/fri sees rain/sleet at low levels but subject details to change .

From Sunday the coldest spell of the winter likely .

Cold next week .

[Chief Wiggam]

Very windy & wet conditions 15 minutes ago with a SW up to F8 - it's now swing ing to the west and the kies are clearing very quickly - looks like the first

cold front is about to arrive...............

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Has this gone tits up now then after yesterdays rampings? I thought there would be a streamer and potential snow from showers for all? But now I see just the moors and hills?

[MPG]

Very windy as that line of PPN passed into the area.

[Bristawl Si]

Monday's the main focus imo. Tonite and the w/e have nearly always been the taster.

Next week looks cold; granted nothing extreme.

Forget some of the internet scribblers quoting 2010 and all that.

[MPG]

Monday's the main focus imo. Tonite and the w/e have nearly always been the taster.

Next week looks cold; granted nothing extreme.

Forget some of the internet scribblers quoting 2010 and all that.

The 2009 Northerly screamer really licked that winter! This tame compared!

Edited January 28, 2015 by MPG

[andy_leics22]

One single snowflake will make things exciting for me and for that I live in hope. AJ, you must cheer up you know. 

 

Currently a violent squall passing through in Newbury, banging noises outside and wind and rain hammering against the windows.

 

AT 9.4c and down she goes, on with the colder air we go.

I can vouch for the squall! Serious squall here about 15 mins ago. Rain lashing the windows and the wind was ferocious! Not seen a squall like that for a while.

It woke me up not happy! I like to sleep on my days off!

[MPG]

Hail, strong winds.....something brewing

[Nights King]

A little blustery here at work but no heavy ppn of any description thus far I think it has missed us. Certainly cooling down now though.

[Mapantz]

It looks like passing here with nowt!

A toasty 10.7°C too.

Edited January 28, 2015 by Mapantz

[MP-R]

Temperature has gone down 2C in the last 2 hours here with two heavy showers recently and very gusty winds.

[katemart]

Gah! They're doing it again on the Model thread: great for coldies, models coming into line, scandi blocking atlantic flow, cold 850 dams, topplers, streamers, wishbones and channel lows....

 

 

Arrggghhh! I don't think I can bear it if I don't get any snow out of this!!!!

[khodds]

Gah! They're doing it again on the Model thread: great for coldies, models coming into line, scandi blocking atlantic flow, cold 850 dams, topplers, streamers, wishbones and channel lows....

 

 

Arrggghhh! I don't think I can bear it if I don't get any snow out of this!!!!

I'm so with you on this! Nail biting times ahead! Alcohol needed!

[Mapantz]

A few sleety bits over higher ground,min the SW.