South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat

[MPG]

4.6 rain overnight -  AS FORECAST. Don't see why people got hung up on the Polar Low last night. 

 

Mondays snow on the GFS has gone into France. Not sure about the other models, maybe a METO update today to downgrade that.

 

My coldest temp so far this year is -5.4. That was just due to High Pressure sat over the country and nothing to do with cold spell. If the wind drops during this period will be interesting to see what the temp drops too.

Edited January 30, 2015 by MPG

[The Weather Yoda]

I don't think it's going to happen. If it can go wrong it will...

That's the spirit...chin up old boy

[Dorsetbred]

Yeah, Monday/ Tuesday I think maybe our best chance, just hoping it freezes over the next few days to give it a chance

Fromey

A quick run through the NW 16day outlook (for Poole) shows nothing other than rain as temperatures rise after the weekend. Not another     NY style is it

Edited January 30, 2015 by Dorsetbred

[The Weather Yoda]

As last night showed us snow opportunities can crop up almost out of nowhere at short notice...in these situations it's probably best to move away from model watching and just watch the bbc forecast on the bbc every night...

[Argyle1980]

Come on people .

I have a good feeling about Tuesday of next week for Snow for when the winds blow in a more favourable direction for our part of the S/W .

Going to be colder than the last few days then after we could have some cold and dry weather for the rest of the week.

[karlos1983]

4.6 rain overnight - AS FORECAST. Don't see why people got hung up on the Polar Low last night.

Mondays snow on the GFS has gone into France. Not sure about the other models, maybe a METO update today to downgrade that.

My coldest temp so far this year is -5.4. That was just due to High Pressure sat over the country and nothing to do with cold spell. If the wind drops during this period will be interesting to see what the temp drops too.

They won't remove the warnings, it's still to far out and much can change still! Also the warnings cover both the low tracking SE and wishbone effect showers from the Northerly flow. I'm still upbeat about our chances.

Don't know why so many are negative. Cast your minds back 12 months ago, we at least have a chance this winter!! (Not aimed at MPG)

Edited January 30, 2015 by karlos1983

[Jayfromcardiff]

Come on people .

I have a good feeling about Tuesday of next week for Snow for when the winds blow in a more favourable direction for our part of the S/W .

Going to be colder than the last few days then after we could have some cold and dry weather for the rest of the week.

Gotta stay positive, you're correct there.

[Jason74]

Roll on Spring, yet another let down of a winter...

 

Indeed. Exactly how I feel.

[SteveB]

I love the cold, but cold with no snow - okay for a while, but would happily trade  for a bit of Spring like warmth.

Edited January 30, 2015 by SteveB

[ARTDEMOLE]

Damp. Breezy 11 km/h. NNW. Temperature 1.7c.  Broken cloud so a nice drop of sunshine to  cheer the day on....

[cornish snow]

Come on people .

I have a good feeling about Tuesday of next week for Snow for when the winds blow in a more favourable direction for our part of the S/W .

Going to be colder than the last few days then after we could have some cold and dry weather for the rest of the week.

Think we've got it sorted down here mate,we expect nothing because that's usually what we get.

Just to see a snowflake or a bit of frost is a bonus for us

 

Personally,i'm v. exited about the weekend ,things falling into place for us to see something white.

 

Don't need 10ft of snow and -20,a day of snow shower's will do just fine.

[The Weather Yoda]

Internet moles...go outside and enjoy the sunshine today. I think a few people are suffering from a lack of vitamin D....

[MPG]

Internet moles...go outside and enjoy the sunshine today. I think a few people are suffering from a lack of vitamin D....

Brilliant post - People here watch snow on the radar rather than looking out the window or going outside!!!

[Rich_Clements]

Temps must have rose overnight no ice like there was at rush hour last night

[fergieweather]

I love the cold, but cold with no snow - okay for a while, but would happily trade  for a bit of Spring like warmth.

Yes. However, despite currently strong EC and MOGREPS signals for cold to relent by end of next week, this still has to be accepted with due caution, with further trough disruption(s) to E still possible to complicate matters and prolong cold weather. That said, it must be noted that - above caveat aside - 00z EC plumes do point with greater consensus towards a clear departure from cold conditions past Friday. Rising GPH remains strongly indicated as high pressure moves in from W; but prior to that, a messy and probably snowy transition (for some). Cold nights still very likely once ridge established, despite moderation in daytime chill.

Signs thereafter, including in UKMO long range model output, broadly suggest that into mid-Feb we will see a phase when a stronger jet will become displaced to a more northerly position, with stronger zonality (and lower GPH) to N of UK and better chance of stronger ridging and thus more benign weather to the south.

Underpinning it all through medium range remains weak teleconnective drivers: MJO not expected to be influential; no signs of any SSW in near future; weak or very indecisive El Nino.

[kent]

As Nick Sussex says this is not a northerly from an true arctic source and I fear for us marginal men here in deepest southern regions unless this pattern changes the balmy temperatures will never be conducive for snow. With the current outlook I see nothing to inspire me.This is not cold weather as I remember it . Just a bit chilly. I think Im getting old and gnarled.

[fergieweather]

As Nick Sussex says this is not a northerly from an true arctic source and I fear for us marginal men here in deepest southern regions unless this pattern changes the balmy temperatures will never be conducive for snow. With the current outlook I see nothing to inspire me.This is not cold weather as I remember it . Just a bit chilly. I think Im getting old and gnarled.

Totally agree. One thing I've been at pains to stress is that the cold only feels more pronounced because of conditions last winter and (largely) through current one. It's by no means exceptional whatsoever and hyperbolic stuff in certain newspapers has grossly embellished the scope of it all... including versus climatology!!

[knocker]

Yes. However, despite currently strong EC and MOGREPS signals for cold to relent by end of next week, this still has to be accepted with due caution, with further trough disruption(s) to E still possible to complicate matters and prolong cold weather. That said, it must be noted that - above caveat aside - 00z EC plumes do point with greater consensus towards a clear departure from cold conditions past Friday. Rising GPH remains strongly indicated as high pressure moves in from W; but prior to that, a messy and probably snowy transition (for some). Cold nights still very likely once ridge established, despite moderation in daytime chill.

Signs thereafter, including in UKMO long range model output, broadly suggest that into mid-Feb we will see a phase when a stronger jet will become displaced to a more northerly position, with stronger zonality (and lower GPH) to N of UK and better chance of stronger ridging and thus more benign weather to the south.

Underpinning it all through medium range remains weak teleconnective drivers: MJO not expected to be influential; no signs of any SSW in near future; weak or very indecisive El Nino.

 

Ian nothing in EC32 anomalies suggest anything other to me than a return to LP Hudson, removing the through to the east  and more influence from Azores HP and more zonality if  taking a broad brush approach. A bit simplistic perhaps.

Edited January 30, 2015 by knocker

[A.J]

cracking snow event, that......pfft

[William Grimsley]

Well, as I thought looks like this polar low turned out to be nothing much than some rain and sleet. Just a few rain showers last night. Still got my hopes up for possibly something early next week but latest snow risk maps have dropped the risk for me.

[MPG]

Totally agree. One thing I've been at pains to stress is that the cold only feels more pronounced because of conditions last winter and (largely) through current one. It's by no means exceptional whatsoever and hyperbolic stuff in certain newspapers has grossly embellished the scope of it all... including versus climatology!!

Think its very evident from the forecast temperature of 4 and 5's........not cold really. Slightly below average. For the next 7 days looks coldish, maybe some good frost by nothing but normal January fare....and pretty dry.

 

No Northern Blocking says it all really. The best thing so far this winter is the amount of rain.......less than last year!! ha

Edited January 30, 2015 by MPG

[Bristawl Si]

Is that threat of a snow event Mon/Tues for part of SW gone away?

[ARTDEMOLE]

Rain still less than half of last years. 122.4mm.  Todays total for the month is   55.8mm..

[karlos1983]

Is that threat of a snow event Mon/Tues for part of SW gone away?

 

No, it's currently still on the other side of the Atlantic, subject to change. Could completely miss us, could completely dump snow on us, could dump rain on us. Not done yet! it's still to early IMO to completely write that off.

[gottolovethisweather]

I love the cold, but cold with no snow - okay for a while, but would happily trade  for a bit of Spring like warmth.

 

Well Springlike warmth is a good eight to ten days away at least I'm afraid and cold and largely dry aside from a couple of disturbances well illustrated by others is the way of things right now in the forecasts.

Edited January 30, 2015 by gottolovethisweather