South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat

[Nights King]

Nah. Wishbone affect takes place this weekend.

Shown well on the EURO4.

 

Don't you think a couple of disturbances could pop up close range and filter through?

 

from the bbc -

This Evening and Tonight

Staying dry for most of the night, but then with a line of showers travelling south across the region through the early hours. This mostly clearing around dawn, then icy stretches developing. Some showers lingering. Becoming very windy. Feeling cold.

Edited January 30, 2015 by Nights King

[John Badrick]

Anyone in here from Princetown/Devon? If it's going to snow in Cornwall/ Devon this ,I've been told is the place to be.. Was thinking of taking a drive up there tomorrow/Sunday with the sledge and kids was wondering if it would be worth the hour drive, anyone with any info much appreciated

[AWD]

Don't you think a couple of disturbances could pop up close range and filter through?

Possibly, can never rule a scenario like that out.

I'm just saying nothing is expected for our area this weekend, PPN is more down Devon & Cornwall way.

[Evening thunder]

Anyone in here from Princetown/Devon? If it's going to snow in Cornwall/ Devon this ,I've been told is the place to be.. Was thinking of taking a drive up there tomorrow/Sunday with the sledge and kids was wondering if it would be worth the hour drive, anyone with any info much appreciated

 

I'm thinking the same, EURO 4 shows a nice streamer that could give some decent snow over the Moor

 

 

 

Though if it does verify the higher roads could become a bit tricky..

 

The webcam showed a bit of snow this morning, receded to the higher hills on the moor this afternoon, though the snow level should lower again tonight/tomorrow if there are decent enough showers.

 

however as with showers no guarantee and a slight shift could leave the moor with not much.

[AWD]

Interesting that the 12z EC Det shows something akin to what Ian described a few posts above for next Monday night/Tuesday.

We are still in the game.

[fromey]

Hi all. Please could I request that my posts here aren't cross-posted to the MOD forum. Thanks. They're specifically posted here for W Country folk.

Sorry I will get my coat!!

[John Badrick]

I'm thinking the same, EURO 4 shows a nice streamer that could give some decent snow over the Moor

 

 

 

Though if it does verify the higher roads could become a bit tricky..

 

The webcam showed a bit of snow this morning, receded to the higher hills on the moor this afternoon, though the snow level should lower again tonight/tomorrow if there are decent enough showers.

 

however as with showers no guarantee and a slight shift could leave the moor with not much.

Thanks for the heads up ET, will check in the morning...Have you got a link to the web cam you mentioned?

Thanks again

JB

[The Enforcer]

Trough running south into Tues still a (pretty significant) snow threat across W Country from latest UKMO-GM. Tricky times ahead. Joy.... not.

Hi Ian, I appreciate your updates on here. Technically I don't reside within the Points West area, but N-W assigns me to this regional thread. At this stage, is there an equal threat to Oxfordshire as the West Country from the Tuesday trough? I ask, because the modelling on the latest fax chart seems to line it up as if it would only pass along the western side of the UK:

Edited January 30, 2015 by The Enforcer

[gottolovethisweather]

Interesting that the 12z EC Det shows something akin to what Ian described a few posts above for next Monday night/Tuesday.

We are still in the game.

 

And one or two of the amateurs had the same general idea too, which shows their efforts are worthwhile, which is always nice to hear. 

Edited January 30, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[kumquat]

Nice trough forming over the Borders area. Can it extend and pep up to the West and bring a bit more precip through our region later?

[Nights King]

Nice trough forming over the Borders area. Can it extend and pep up to the West and bring a bit more precip through our region later?

 

National weather showed it at lunchtime heading south over night... although it breaks in two out of wales with a dry space in middle over Bristol area

[Argyle1980]

Something the GFS has been on for a few runs now bringing in some cracking cold uppers and a good bit of precipitation for Cornwall for a good part of Tuesday .

One to watch .... Charts from GFS12z morning and midday .Cornwall!

[gottolovethisweather]

National weather showed it at lunchtime heading south over night... although it breaks in two out of wales with a dry space in middle over Bristol area

 

DE JA VU. 

[Nights King]

DE JA VU. 

 

It's still up on bbc website for moment if you take a look...

 

I think Moses lives in the west country...

 

 

 

Edited January 30, 2015 by Nights King

[gottolovethisweather]

Something the GFS has been on for a few runs now bringing in some cracking cold uppers and a good bit of precipitation for Cornwall for a good part of Tuesday .

One to watch .... Charts from GFS12z morning and midday .Cornwall!image.jpgimage.jpg

 

As AWD alluded to yesterday I think it was, if I were living in Cornwall and Devon I would be getting a wee bit excited right now. Below is my take on your little patch over the coming days as posted up thread. 

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82389-south-west-central-southern-england-weather-chat/?p=3154300

Edited January 30, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[Chris K]

National weather showed it at lunchtime heading south over night... although it breaks in two out of wales with a dry space in middle over Bristol area

 

Just like what often happens with thunderstorms (although 2014 the region did quite well)

[kumquat]

National weather showed it at lunchtime heading south over night... although it breaks in two out of wales with a dry space in middle over Bristol area

Precip on the West end started thinning out on the next frame just as I posted LOL.

 

Looking for any possible clutch of a shower now. If a Polar Low can form out of nowhere (I still think it was a shortwave that bigged itself up) who knows what might pop up at short notice.

[Zephyr]

If only we could get a repeat of that channel streamer   What year was this again 2010?

 

 

[Dorsetbred]

Hi Ian, I rarely post on here but was wondering if you see any potential for snow down here in Poole early next week? I appreciate how difficult the forecast is at the minute but just wanted to hear your view if you get a chance.

Thank you, Andy.

As with all snow events Andy, we are either too far west, too far south or in this case too far east.

One of the joys of living in the middle along the south coast I'm afraid, where you rarely will get the ideal conditions, note I said rarely and not never. Like Kent I am one of those born to remember the winter of '63, so I know it can happen, under extremes, OR perfect alignment.

[SNOW CRYSTAL]

Thanks for the heads up ET, will check in the morning...Have you got a link to the web cam you mentioned?

Thanks again

JB[/quote

Hi JB sorry I can't post the link on my phone but search under 'Dartmoor Webcam' and it will give you the cam for Powderham Mill, Postbridge, just on from Princetown. It's in a bit of a dip but you can see a couple of the tors in the background. They were looking slightly white this morning but gone again by lunch.

Festival King is slighter closer to Princetown than me, he's sure to post if there's a covering. Fingers crossed for you.

[Argyle1980]

As AWD alluded to yesterday I think it was, if I were living in Cornwall and Devon I would be getting a wee bit excited right now. Below is my take on your little patch over the coming days as posted up thread. 

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82389-south-west-central-southern-england-weather-chat/?p=3154300

. oh I am very much. Had my eye on the GFS run for a couple of days now so feeling very positive Tuesday will be a white one! It's now my day off!

Keep the faith!

[The Enforcer]

I have found that the NMM model has forecasted the track of this winter's snow events relatively well. It had the eastern track of the precipitation for yesterday as early as its Thurs 00Z:

 

So what does Friday 12z predict (apologies for inevitable focus towards eastern side of the region where I am):

 

- Saturday morning showers moving south-eastwards containing greater proportion of snow than in BBC forecast which shows almost entirely rain

- Saturday evening band developing across central UK and moving southwards - quite light but all snow can't compare with BBC charts at this stage

- Sunday morning area of snow moving south-eastwards from Wales

- Monday morning extent of Low grazing Cornwall

- Monday lunchtime 'Tuesday trough' moving into northern Scotland

 

It will be interesting to compare these with the 18z to see how much these change.

[Mapantz]

Can't even get below 3°C here. lol

[Beast of Plympton]

Anyone in here from Princetown/Devon? If it's going to snow in Cornwall/ Devon this ,I've been told is the place to be.. Was thinking of taking a drive up there tomorrow/Sunday with the sledge and kids was wondering if it would be worth the hour drive, anyone with any info much appreciated

 

I used to be live in Princetown and yes, on an event like this we would get a lot of snow and it is definitely the place to be. However, be warned that if you intend to travel up there you will be joining most people within a 20 mile radius so it blocks up all the roads, which leaves the locals disgruntled! Secondly, everywhere from Princetown is down a hill so whilst you may get up there, you might have a job getting back out again!

[John Badrick]

Thanks for the heads up ET, will check in the morning...Have you got a link to the web cam you mentioned?

Thanks again

JB[/quote

Hi JB sorry I can't post the link on my phone but search under 'Dartmoor Webcam' and it will give you the cam for Powderham Mill, Postbridge, just on from Princetown. It's in a bit of a dip but you can see a couple of the tors in the background. They were looking slightly white this morning but gone again by lunch.

Festival King is slighter closer to Princetown than me, he's sure to post if there's a covering. Fingers crossed for you.

Thanks SC, will check them out in the morning, not sure if it's best to go up tomorrow morning or Sunday. I live too close to the coast to get any snow so need to drive further afield and Princetown looks like a good shot

Thanks again

JB