South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat

[Mark Neal.]

I have been worrying about it ending up too far east of here. Completely non-existant on BBC charts: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167. Usually I'd be ranting about unforecasted rain at this stage (other examples in the summer/autumn), maybe it could break the mould for once and provide some unforecasted snow?

'Twas my worry also, now it looks heading S/SE hard to tell.. Gonna be a close one again

[kumquat]

It's holding its insensity pretty well though buddy.

I reckon the main "ball" of ppn might hit your general location. The "wings" seem to be folding back and dying. Depends on whether you're up for a late one or not. It's Friday night after all

[The Enforcer]

Whereever it goes, probably not worth losing another couple of hours kip over. I suspect it will be almost gone given another 4 x 15 minute frames or so.

There is almost certainly some sort of trough holding it together, check it entering the Irish Sea on the T+0 chart for 6pm:

Edited January 31, 2015 by The Enforcer

[kumquat]

The good thing going for it is it has a bit of backing with secondary ppn catching up behind, mixing in and propelling it onwards.

[andy_leics22]

It's gonna skirt West of us, i'm 90% sure now looks like it's taking too much of a Southerly track.

[The Enforcer]

The good thing going for it is it has a bit of backing with secondary ppn catching up behind, mixing in and propelling it onwards.

Agree - there is an element of streamer to it.

[Mark Neal.]

Yes well spotted has a lot of southerly movement now. Hopefully we can still get something out of it

[Nick L]

It's gonna skirt West of us, i'm 90% sure now looks like it's taking too much of a Southerly track.

 

I would have thought it'd start taking a more southeasterly track as it moves around the low, but we'll see. I'm certainly hoping that's the case...

[andy_leics22]

I would have thought it'd start taking a more southeasterly track as it moves around the low, but we'll see. I'm certainly hoping that's the case...

Hope you are right buddy. Glad to see you doing well for yourself now by the way funny how we both ended up further South over the years!

Did any of the models really pick up on this first streamer?

Edited January 31, 2015 by andy_leics22

[kumquat]

There is almost certainly some sort of trough holding it together, check it entering the Irish Sea on the T+0 chart for 6pm:

2015013018zT+0.png

I think that Fax trough might account for it. There was a trough forming in Scottish Borders that fizzled out earlier. Seems to be some reinvigoration going on back in that area about now. This kind of northerly will produce steep gradients in the temps in the air aloft and these features can be enigmatic.

[The Enforcer]

I would have thought it'd start taking a more southeasterly track as it moves around the low, but we'll see. I'm certainly hoping that's the case...

You are welcome to it, as long as it passes through here en-route. I'll settle for a covering. Bang goes my early night.

 

EDIT: Surprised there aren't more reports of Snow on #UKSnow, given it appears that's what's falling.

Edited January 31, 2015 by The Enforcer

[Nick L]

Hope you are right buddy. Glad to see you doing well for yourself now by the way funny how we both ended up further South over the years!

Did any of the models really pick up on this first streamer?

 

I'm still a Midlander at heart, even if I have been polluted with a more southern accent

 

They certainly picked up on showers but I'm surprised they're this organised. At least it's given me something interesting to watch on the night shift!

[andy_leics22]

You are welcome to it, as long as it passes through here en-route. I'll settle for a covering. Bang goes my early night.

 

EDIT: Surprised there aren't more reports of Snow on #UKSnow, given it appears that's what's falling.

Most people are probably in bed! Haha. Looks like an all nighter for me. Combination of Fifa 15 on PS4 and radar watching. Beats going into Oxford, spending £50 on booze and waking up with a sore head

[Mark Neal.]

Cotswolds might get a covering at this rate?

[kumquat]

I reckon it'll split over the Malverns. Some towards Oxford, some heading straight down over Gloucester / Cotswolds.

[andy_leics22]

I'm still a Midlander at heart, even if I have been polluted with a more southern accent

 

They certainly picked up on showers but I'm surprised they're this organised. At least it's given me something interesting to watch on the night shift!

Haha, I still have a thick Leicester accent even though i've been down here for 2 years now. Most of the time people down here can't understand me. I say things like "catch the bUs" and "GrAss". Whereas the locals tend to say "catch the bas" and "grarrrs". Tis not right I tell ya

[kumquat]

Haha, I still have a thick Leicester accent even though i've been down here for 2 years now. Most of the time people down here can't understand me. I say things like "catch the bUs" and "GrAss". Whereas the locals tend to say "catch the bas" and "grarrrs". Tis not right I tell ya

Hehe - as a boy from Northampton living down in Bristol, I know exactly what you mean x 10

Edited January 31, 2015 by kumquat

[The Enforcer]

Cotswolds might get a covering at this rate?

Cotswolds is my concern if this is on target - could weaken it at the final approach?

[Mark Neal.]

Cotswolds is my concern if this is on target - could weaken it at the final approach?

Could do. Heavier opsnow being reported in Worcester/w midlands. Need s nudge eastwards and we woild get something. When looking at radar at 00:45 and 01:00 there is a bit of SE movement

[kumquat]

Malverns should get a nice top up from this.

[steveinsussex]

It should def track more SE shortly

[The Enforcer]

I tell you what this reminds me of and that's the April 2008 snowfall, A trough on a similar track from NW England gained more pronounced precipitation as it moved south. I was in Stockport so saw the beginning of it with a light covering there, but I believe several centimetres fell here. I'm used to fighting for scraps, so as I said earlier I'd settle for a dusting.

[kumquat]

This is where I expect ppn to build out of seemingly nowhere to start racing up the Severn Estuary to join the battle. Not a lot but it'll be almost like electric how it connects.

[Mark Neal.]

All I want is a dusting from this.

[andy_leics22]

Agreed Mark and Enforcer. I'd be as happy as a pig in excrement even if all we had was a decent dusting here. They are having some pretty heavy snow out of that in the West Mids. 20-30 mins of moderate-heavy snowfall is all I want! Is it really too much to ask for?

Edited January 31, 2015 by andy_leics22