South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat

[Costa Del Fal]

Just had yet another hail shower here. I challenge any location who thinks they can beat Falmouth for the amount of hail we have had in recent days. Pretty much had at least one hail shower pretty much every day for the last 3 or 4 days now.

[gottolovethisweather]

Note how it's curling towards the South East 

 

LOL

 

Edit: as this thread also houses some of our brothers and sisters in the South Central England 'zone' then I hope it does indeed keep its intensity down to there.  Good luck to that posse!

 

My posse is hopeful but it's largely those hill dwelling folk whom are out preparing their cattle and sheep at daybreak if not before. Me, I'll be tucked up in bed, hoping for a pleasant surprise prior to breakfast (that sounds so wrong in its own sort of way  ).

 

Happy snow hunting folks, currently 0.9c AT, -0.4c DP, -2.2c Wind chill

Edited January 30, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[andy_leics22]

Yes please haha.

yES PLEASE LOL.gif

Dude, what the heck has happened??!!

Been in work all day, didn't finish till 11pm, I come on to catch up on posts i've missed throughout the day and I see these charts :D

Talk about a nice surprise! I didn't expect us to see anything until maybe Tuesday at the earliest but this is awesome. Looking at the radar, it looks as though that stuff over Cheshire will head towards our region and arrive here by 3am ish!

[Mark Neal.]

Going for a nap, been up since early doors, see where that band of sleet/snow is come 1am, ETA arrival near here about 2:30 onwards.

Edited January 30, 2015 by Mark N

[kumquat]

Just had yet another hail shower here. I challenge any location who thinks they can beat Falmouth for the amount of hail we have had in recent days. Pretty much had at least one hail shower pretty much every day for the last 3 or 4 days now.

 

You could make a little business out of that! Costa Del FHAIL

[Mark Neal.]

Dude, what the heck has happened??!!

Been in work all day, didn't finish till 11pm, I come on to catch up on posts i've missed throughout the day and I see these charts :D

Talk about a nice surprise! I didn't expect us to see anything until maybe Tuesday at the earliest but this is awesome. Looking at the radar, it looks as though that stuff over Cheshire will head towards our region and arrive here by 3am ish!

Yup, just looked at last 5-10 frames of radar, 5 minute intervals and it does seem to be heading this way,some heavier bursts mixed in. Can it carry on that direction, don't want that to push anymore East,fine margins really. I have seen these scenarios go wrong so many time, just missing us when moving in from that direction, though some have been alright!.. Certainly interesting, clear skies above and -1c. Dew point -1.7c.

[kumquat]

That'll be the trough that I magicked up earlier!

[gottolovethisweather]

Although an old warning it is still valid, courtesy of UKMO and copied directly from their website at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&regionName=se&fcTime=1422576000

 

"Icy stretches are likely to form on untreated surfaces on Friday evening, overnight and into Saturday morning. In addition, further accumulation of snow are likely on high ground, especially across the northern half of the yellow area."

 

The following areas are covered under the Yellow warning.

 

"Bracknell Forest, Brighton and Hove, Buckinghamshire, East Sussex, Greater London, Hampshire, Kent, Medway, Milton Keynes, Oxfordshire, Portsmouth, Reading, Slough, Southampton, Surrey, West Berkshire, West Sussex, Windsor and Maidenhead, Wokingham"

 

From the above I've suggested in bold type the areas which might want to keep a watch out for some wintriness in the coming hours or by morning, judging by an additional recce of current radar imagery. I personally think the Cotswolds and parts of Wiltshire might do better out of it, but it looks to me like a Welsh hills event on the whole. Overall, it is but a very small risk of a slight dusting at worst or best depending on your viewpoint.

 

Nighty night methinks. 

Edited January 31, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[The Enforcer]

Dude, what the heck has happened??!!

Been in work all day, didn't finish till 11pm, I come on to catch up on posts i've missed throughout the day and I see these charts :D

Talk about a nice surprise! I didn't expect us to see anything until maybe Tuesday at the earliest but this is awesome. Looking at the radar, it looks as though that stuff over Cheshire will head towards our region and arrive here by 3am ish!

 

Yup, just looked at last 5-10 frames of radar, 5 minute intervals and it does seem to be heading this way,some heavier bursts mixed in. Can it carry on that direction, don't want that to push anymore East,fine margins really. I have seen these scenarios go wrong so many time, just missing us when moving in from that direction, though some have been alright!.. Certainly interesting, clear skies above and -1c. Dew point -1.7c.

Current blob of precipitation not modelled at all on 18z 5km NMM: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=3&mode=1&map=5 - it all comes through later on.

 

2km version of NMM not updated yet.

Edited January 31, 2015 by The Enforcer

[Mark Neal.]

Not modelled at all on 18z 5km NMM: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=3&mode=1&map=5

 

5km version of NMM not updated

Shows it moving through on the NMM, though a bit later towards 5-7am onwards. Looking ar radar, you could say that NMM isn't even close at this stage currently, this is an interesting feature.. 

Edited January 31, 2015 by Mark N

[andy_leics22]

Hmmm, interesting! I have tomorrow off so I think it will be another 4am job for me tonight I'm one crazy SOB I know! Seriously snow deprived now though. Seen 2 very very paltry sugar dustings so far this winter and saw nothing at all last year.

[katemart]

I'll give you a tenner to a thrupenny bit that we get nothing tonight. That ppn is vanishing over the Brecons. The only moisture that will make it past Avonmouth will go East of London.

 

Shame as it's currently 0.9C here and dp is -1.7.

Edited January 31, 2015 by katemart

[Mark Neal.]

Hmmm, interesting! I have tomorrow off so I think it will be another 4am job for me tonight I'm one crazy SOB I know! Seriously snow deprived now though. Seen 2 very very paltry sugar dustings so far this winter and saw nothing at all last year.

I'm off tomorrow too, and the whole of next week(good timing!) hoping for something a bit more serious come Tuesday.

[gottolovethisweather]

Shows it moving through on the NMM, though a bit later towards 5-7am onwards. Looking ar radar, you could say that NMM isn't even close at this stage currently, this is an interesting feature.. 

 

Yes Mark, indeed the 12z version as I alluded here didn't make much of the overnight stuff but six hours has since passed between those the 12z and 18z and that could mean a downgrade or equally an upgrade, will find out by first light tomorrow in my case, sleep beckons. 

Edited January 31, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[The Enforcer]

Shows it moving through on the NMM, though a bit later towards 5-7am onwards. Looking ar radar, you could say that NMM isn't even close at this stage currently, this is an interesting feature.. 

But oddly the 12z 2km NMM does have this initial blob passing through at 1-2am: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=3&mode=42&map=331

Edited January 31, 2015 by The Enforcer

[kumquat]

I'll give you a tenner to a thrupenny bit that we get nothing tonight. That ppn is vanishing over the Brecons. The only moisture that will make it past Avonmouth will go East of London.

 

Shame as it's currently 0.9C here and dp is -1.7.

 

Absolutely right - no way near worth holding out for. Sleep is far more important. Hopefully will hold you in good stead for all the late night lamppost burning over the next few days - Noooooot!

[gottolovethisweather]

I'll give you a tenner to a thrupenny bit that we get nothing tonight. That ppn is vanishing over the Brecons. The only moisture that will make it past Avonmouth will go East of London.

 

Shame as it's currently 0.9C here and dp is -1.7.

 

In Southampton, the Titanic is more likely to seen leaving dock again I reckon.    Just being cruel to be kind as I don't want to temper your enthusiasm. 

[Mark Neal.]

But oddly the 12z 2km NMM does have this initial blob passing through at 1-2am: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=3&mode=42&map=331

Yes even at short range these models are not that spot on. Radar the main tool and currently looking good, hope it stays intact

[kumquat]

Amazing heavy showers North West Scotland getting out of this flow. Flip it 90 degrees and it's similar to our usual rainy Westerlies.

Edited January 31, 2015 by kumquat

[andy_leics22]

Yes even at short range these models are not that spot on. Radar the main tool and currently looking good, hope it stays intact

I've got a nasty feeling that the PPN is going to slide to our West. It looks like it's swinging SE but if you compare it from 11pm to 12:15am, it is heading almost straight South

[The Enforcer]

Current blob of precipitation not modelled at all on 18z 5km NMM: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=3&mode=1&map=5 - it all comes through later on.

 

2km version of NMM not updated yet.

The other thing that is interesting about the 5km version is that at T+72 6pm Monday you can see the 'Tuesday trough' extending all the way across the top of Scotland. Compare that with its position on the T+96 Fax chart, which shows the trough turning into a LP having skimmed western areas. Confirms the level of uncertainty.

[Mark Neal.]

Judging by radar here is my current thoughts of projecton at moment.

[kumquat]

I've got a nasty feeling that the PPN is going to slide to our West. It looks like it's swinging SE but if you compare it from 11pm to 12:15am, it is heading almost straight South

 

Whereever it goes, probably not worth losing another couple of hours kip over. I suspect it will be almost gone given another 4 x 15 minute frames or so.

[Mark Neal.]

Whereever it goes, probably not worth losing another couple of hours kip over. I suspect it will be almost gone given another 4 x 15 minute frames or so.

It's holding its insensity pretty well though buddy.

[The Enforcer]

I've got a nasty feeling that the PPN is going to slide to our West. It looks like it's swinging SE but if you compare it from 11pm to 12:15am, it is heading almost straight South

I have been worrying about it ending up too far east of here. Completely non-existant on BBC charts: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167. Usually I'd be ranting about unforecasted rain at this stage (other examples in the summer/autumn), maybe it could break the mould for once and provide some unforecasted snow?