South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat

[Argyle1980]

Things are looking up for us down here in Cornwall and I do think that there will be more upgrades before Monday .

Something to smile about at long last!

Full of positivity as you can tell.

Anyway what a beautiful day it is today, wonderful bit of winters sunshine

[MPG]

Things are looking up for us down here in Cornwall and I do think that there will be more upgrades before Monday .

Something to smile about at long last!

Full of positivity as you can tell.

Anyway what a beautiful day it is today, wonderful bit of winters sunshine

With temps around 6 degrees I cant see any lying snow, but maybe some wintry showers.

[BM4PM]

Net weather have a whole 80% chance of a whole 5mm of snow in plym on sunday.thats half a cm!

bloody lucky it's on a Sunday or we'd be screwed.

I can see this being broardcasted across the globe "Plymouth braces for worse snowfall ever"

Edited January 30, 2015 by BM4PM

[cornish snow]

With temps around 6 degrees I cant see any lying snow, but maybe some wintry showers.

Who cares,snow might actually fall out of the sky,happy days

[Dorset_Weather]

To be fair forcasts are going to plan, we were never forcast -10 and blizzards, the run up to the weekend was always going to be transient, getting colder for the weekend with low chances of snow.

All seems about right so far, fingers crossed for ungrades next week.

[Beast of Plympton]

Snow forecast on Saturday night! Get in! Wish I still lived in Princetown this weekend!

[karlos1983]

Net weather have a whole 80% chance of a whole 5mm of snow in plym on sunday.thats half a cm!

bloody lucky it's on a Sunday or we'd be screwed.

I can see this being broardcasted across the globe "Plymouth braces for worse snowfall ever"

 

Actually, I believe 1mm of Precip when falling as snow, equates to 1cm of snow, so that would be 5cm of snow.

[fergieweather]

^Some clarity re Mon-Tues. Some people here seem to be over-reacting to how UKMO warnings are currently laid-out, plus perhaps some misinterpretation of modelling.

The current warnings into Tuesday (in particular) show E coastal threat of snow showers, because there's higher confidence that the set-up will inevitably lead to these. Conversely, the warnings do NOT currently include anything else across the UK. This is NOT to be misconstrued as UKMO convinced there is no threat of disruptive weather elsewhere: indeed, far from it. It's merely because we are in a lull period - one of careful reflection, if you like(!) - to gather stock of what may or may not be looming into that period.

 

The threat of disruptive snow *somewhere*, currently rated as 40%, is evident from the UKMO-GM 06z output for Tuesday, with the development of a secondary feature signalled in a number of models (since yesterday) to feed south across western areas. This development evolves from a northward extension of a baroclinic zone, then being engaged and invigorated by a diffluent zone up aloft set to come out across Greenland and then over Iceland. Whilst cross-model support for the upper air pattern is good up to early Monday, the outcomes then diverge markedly - and these key upper sensitivities are crucial to what happens next. Anyone attempting to be prescriptive or offer detail on what will happen is simply bonkers, or misguided. This forecast headache isn't going to resolve speedily!

 

One thing that is quite evident, however, is how a continued veering of flow Mon-Tues will ensure the country sits under a reservoir of cold air with little scope for marginality in the sense of what we've had this week.

 

So, it's way, way too premature to either write-off snow prospects for W Country into Tuesday especially, nor 'big them up'. We are in a period of huge uncertainty.  I think the problem is folk seeing GFS runs through the day and over-reacting to each and every one, rather than taking a step back and appreciating the overall trend/patterns (as opposed to freaking-out over inter-run nuances way out at lead times of T+72+).

Edited January 30, 2015 by gottolovethisweather
changed font size to make for an easier read

[knocker]

Many thanks for that fergie. Now nearly time to dissect the midday GFS.

[khodds]

Thanks Ian, I won't slash my wrists quite yet then lol

[Skullzrulerz]

Good afternoon to you all.

Just checked the BBC weather for this Sunday next Monday and compared to this morning its a major downgrade for snowfall for Cornwall.

[AWD]

A look at where we are currently then and what's happened so far;

- We've had the initial colder snap which brought wintry showers to low levels and a slight slushy covering to higher levels. The polar low got everyone's hopes up a tad but it didn't deliver for our region. It was an outside shot though. So far, IMO, that snap went as forecast with no notable snowfall, as expected. Remember, temper expectations and you won't be disappointed.

Today is going as forecast too. The forecast less cold air (mild sector) is currently traversing the South and West bringing a temporary blip of less cold weather with no chance of snowfall, as forecast.

The weekend maintains the prospects of a cool down again with Sunday inparticular looking like the start of cold snap number 2. Again, any PPN that does fall will likely turn wintry again with a sleety mix at lower levels and some slushy snow on higher levels. However, I expect there to be less PPN about than what we've just had with the "wishbone" affect coming into play leaving a lot of inland areas mainly dry.

Then we move onto Monday and Tuesday. I expect the wishbone affect to be maintained during Monday daytime but as we enter Monday evening and Tuesday things become a lot more messy. We remain in with a chance of a more notable snow event across the SW but equally we may not see much, as variation in model data is currently high here. I still think we sit at around 70/30 in favour of a drier, colder outlook rather than a snowy one but as Ian States above, marginality falls away here so if any PPN does fall, it is much more likely to be of snow by then hence why the chance of snowfall is higher than what it has previously been.

Again though, let's remember;

70% of no snow event

30% chabce of a snow event

So by no means guarenteed.

Therefore I conclude that, with mesoscale features aside, the broad scheme of things has stayed the same for a while now. What has happened was broadly expected as was today. And next week remains interesting re cold and snow.

Let's hope our luck turns soon and the odds favour us. We deserve it.

[BM4PM]

Actually, I believe 1mm of Precip when falling as snow, equates to 1cm of snow, so that would be 5cm of snow.

OMG it's snowmagedon

[andy_leics22]

Whatever happens this weekend or next week. I do hope Cornwall and Devon get plastered! You guys down there deserve a dumping of snow!

[legritter]

Thanks Ian for that information ,every day seems to set new challenges ,i remember many years ago how sometimes you have days of reflection and quiet then another situation pops up ,thats Meteorology for you ,we do have much lower temp on the way so fingers crossed for something to turn up   

[karlos1983]

OMG it's snowmagedon

 

Do i detect a hint of sarcasm in your post lol

[The Weather Yoda]

That Ian bloke talks a lot of sense..he should do this professionally

[andy_leics22]

That Ian bloke talks a lot of sense..he should do this professionally

I reckon he could land himself a job presenting Weather on the regional news!

Oh wait...

[MP-R]

Quite a pleasant afternoon here. 7C, mostly sunny with some cloud and a light breeze. Feels more like early March lol.

[kent]

I reckon he could land himself a job presenting Weather on the regional news!

Oh wait...

Thankfully we have his experience to inject a degree of knowledge on here.  Some of charts posted by others are as useless as a snow shovel in my neck of the woods.

[snow freak]

I'm booking my winter hols to Norway next winter. at least there you can be more or less guaranteed snow and cold.  UK is just far too hit and miss.

[Nights King]

Thankfully we have his experience to inject a degree of knowledge on here.  Some of charts posted by others are as useless as a snow shovel in my neck of the woods.

 

I have heard they use them as paddles down on the levels, quite effective..   

[andy_leics22]

I'm booking my winter hols to Norway next winter. at least there you can be more or less guaranteed snow and cold.  UK is just far too hit and miss.

That for me is the beauty and excitement of snow in this country though.

It makes it special if it snows here because we know it's not really that common. If I lived somewhere where it snowed every Winter without fail, it would probably become the norm. In the same way that rain is to us!

[A.J]

Thankfully we have his experience to inject a degree of knowledge on here.  Some of charts posted by others are as useless as a snow shovel in my neck of the woods.

actually that's very derogatory to many of the learned members who post on the forum, some of whom, it should be added, are highly qualified & respected professional forecasters

[Mapantz]

Just had moderate shower with a sprinkling of hail too. It could be an ice rink tonight if it does get down to freezing.