Model Output Discussion - 1st February Onwards 12z--->

[Jason M]

My understanding of a true easterly is where the wind blows from East to west :-)

Anyway, the point re my earlier post was simply that there has been a trend today towards building the heights more to our East which depending on orientation could lead to an easterly. I wouldn't be surprised to see a few ensembles promoting pressure rises over Scandinavia by the morning. Whether they would be right is a different matter.

[bluearmy]

ovwr the past few GEFS suites, it's clear that week 2 is going to show a fair amount of amplification in the NH as it progresses.

The 12z seems to be very interested in greeny ridges of sorts. Too early to call it a trend but with an amplified pattern setting up, it's clear that it won't just be the ne States that are going to be anomalously cold as feb progresses.

[knocker]

My understanding of a true easterly is where the wind blows from East to west :-)

Anyway, the point re my earlier post was simply that there has been a trend today towards building the heights more to our East which depending on orientation could lead to an easterly. I wouldn't be surprised to see a few ensembles promoting pressure rises over Scandinavia by the morning. Whether they would be right is a different matter.

 

The trend is for HP to move east but also to build from the SW. So right at the end of the run, (this is quite pointless really) we have Pm air trying to stick it's nose in. Dissecting each run is not at the moment going to change the overall pattern.

Chart weatherbell

Edited February 4, 2015 by knocker

[Ali1977]

Definitely some interesting ENS in FI, still only mid Feb so lots to play for.

[SE Blizzards]

Definitely some interesting ENS in FI, still only mid early Feb so lots to play for.

 

[chris55]

All to play for as we move through into mid Feb. The high anomaly looks robust, lets just hope it sets up somewhere favourably!!

[Timmytour]

Definitely some interesting ENS in FI, still only mid Feb so lots to play for.

 

 

 

Definitely some interesting ENS in FI, still only mid early Feb so lots to play for.

 

But FI in the ENS is mid-Feb......

Edited February 4, 2015 by Timmytour

[igloo]

a hint of a early spring on the cards tonight in the later stages of the Ecm a gentle SE wind from se france and northern italy a long way of i no but the signs are there just the same it could well change again by tomorrow again

Edited February 4, 2015 by igloo

[alexisj9]

a hint of a early spring on the cards tonight in the later stages of the Ecm a gentle SE wind from se france and northern italy a long way of i no but the signs are there just the same it could well change again by tomorrow again

That SE wind can be very cold at this time of year, especially as Europe will be cold.

[chris55]

168 looks like the time for potential IMO, the pattern kind of goes slack. This looks like the period to watch out for. Some more favourable placements of the high pressure cells could well result in a much colder pattern for eh UK.

[bradymk]

Certainly a strong signal for high pressure to be situated near or over the UK for the foreseeable future, especially for the southern UK where it stays colder for longest. Probably two weeks or possibly more of high pressure with temperatures starting to recover day by day to average from Saturday. Some interest in GEFS suite after Day 10 to the west with more amplification but nothing more than interest at the moment, but worth keeping an eye on. 

 

What happens after this (mid month) i think is still unclear. Metoffice bang on about more anticyclonic weather beginning of Feb a few weeks back though. Also about a potential blocking pattern, this looks clear now too, a blocking pattern for W Europe for the next 10 days at least. 

 

Matt tweeted about the EC 32 bringing scandi block later through Feb so i think maybe just a bit of a patience for the second half of the month. the model has performed well. For me, cold clear and frosty weather is the second best to snow so i'm personally happy (ish) about the next few days anyway. 

[snowblizzard]

That SE wind can be very cold at this time of year, especially as Europe will be cold.

But not that cold, it's only -1c in Germany!

[karyo]

But not that cold, it's only -1c in Germany!

Agreed! If it was December or January I would be pleased with the high pressure over us but now the sun is already quite strong. Frosty nights possible but not that cold by day.

Edited February 4, 2015 by karyo

[winterof79]

But not that cold, it's only -1c in Germany!

All hypothetical really as it is the latter stages of the ECM that's being talked about.Will it be -1c then?

[summer blizzard]

High pressure continues to rule the roost..

 

[Sweatyman]

Signal has been shown since winter has began.

 

Hard to ignore it's consistency that far out.

give it a week and it'll disappear like usual cfs

[snowblizzard]

Agreed! If it was December or January I would be pleased with the high pressure over us but now the sun is already quite strong. Frosty nights possible but not that cold by day.

Despite the sun gaining strength we could still experience a bitterly cold air flow off the continent.

But, there has to be a deep cold pool over Western Europe, something we haven't really seen yet this winter!

[ANYWEATHER]

Both gfs and ecm show high pressure in some way another controlling the Uks weather for at least another ten days. Now ,it may as be boring as you think, Ok ,if its a clean high , Diurnal temperatures with very cold nights, and some pleasant warmth in any sheltered sunshine.. An inversion ,with mist and fog on low ground with temperatures below freezing,[ice day] go up an hill its warmer! Cloudy skies, [stratocumulus] over the uk with a gentle Easterly breeze and some wintry flurries over eastern Britain if the high is in the right place..Not bad for a High pressure scenario!!!!

Edited February 4, 2015 by ANYWEATHER

[polar vortex]

Surprised at the number of amplified ens from the GFS 12z this could very well be an over reaction to a strengthening MJO signal 

although the signal is looking a lot more robust with a strong WWB near the date line. 

The lower strat vortex looks to become elongated and weaker over the coming days therefore a strong MJO signal over the coming days 

may well be the trigger that is needed. Certainly mid February to mid March given the right synoptics could produce a very newsworthy 

freeze for the UK so time is still on our side but will the weather play ball.

[bluearmy]

The gefs and ECM ens mean are both showing a split of sorts in the stretched vortex through week 2. Whilst the anomolys are not heading anywhere far from our sluggish high, that split could be what's encouraging those runs which amplify to our nw. not the favourite but something to be looking out for.

[Earth Wind and Snow]

Surprised at the number of amplified ens from the GFS 12z this could very well be an over reaction to a strengthening MJO signal 

although the signal is looking a lot more robust with a strong WWB near the date line. 

The lower strat vortex looks to become elongated and weaker over the coming days therefore a strong MJO signal over the coming days 

may well be the trigger that is needed. Certainly mid February to mid March given the right synoptics could produce a very newsworthy 

freeze for the UK so time is still on our side but will the weather play ball.

Yes some nice GEFS ensembles tonight - a good portion showing heights to our north with wintry synoptics for British Isles in the later ranges - hopefully they are on to something - I have not seen anything from Ian F in a while but last I heard he suggested a potentially blocked and colder spell later in February - maybe GEFS now picking up on this signal - the operationals may not show anything of note at the moment but hopefully a few days from now, we will be looking at much more promising charts in the 7-10 day range - it would be nice to see one very cold wintry spell before winter is out as opposed to the rather uninspiring efforts to date in Dec and Jan - maybe third time lucky.... 

 

EWS 

[Eugene]

That SE wind can be very cold at this time of year, especially as Europe will be cold.

 

 

Exactly, people acting like it's mid March next week and not mid February, when the high moves directly over us and just to east it will be very chilly with a high fog risk which can hang around all day.

 

Also incorrect to talk of wide diurnal temp ranges this early, it's towards the Spring Equinox in mid March when you see these wide ranges like -4C at night to 13C in the afternoon, this won't occur next week as it's too early by about at least 3 to 4 weeks.

Edited February 4, 2015 by Eugene

[2810lollypop]

Exactly, people acting like it's mid March next week and not mid February, when the high moves directly over us and just to east it will be very chilly with high fog risk which can hang around all day.

good point only its not even mid feb ,its the 4th of feb today lol

[Geordiesnow]

Exactly, people acting like it's mid March next week and not mid February, when the high moves directly over us and just to east it will be very chilly with a high fog risk which can hang around all day.

 

Also incorrect to talk of wide diurnal temp ranges this early, it's towards the Spring Equinox in mid March when you see these wide ranges like -4C at night to 13C in the afternoon, this won't occur next week as it's too early by about at least 3 to 4 weeks.

 

I remember Feb 2008 having contrasts with a similar looking set up, I think it was about 13-15C by day but frost and fog(for some) by night, it was an interesting set up for sure. 

 

No it won't occur next week as the upper air temps are not forecast to be as mild as it was then and we don't know at this stage how clear the high will be but one thing for sure, a very strong trend for very little rainfall to come. 

 

The uncertainty is how much clearer weather we get from that cold plunge that will miss us, I suspect we may get a little bit of clearer weather before cloud once again topples in.

[knocker]

WSI Energy Weather â€@WSI_Energy 5h5 hours ago

Left: Our in-house MJO+ENSO automated analog pattern; Right: ECMWF weekly forecast. Almost spot on.

 

Big time +NAO to emerge during Week 3; will drive circulation across much of the Northern Hemisphere; European thaw

Edited February 4, 2015 by knocker