Model Output Discussion - 1st February Onwards 12z--->

[Dr. Astro]

One word can sum up the next 10 days and quite possibly more..

 

DRY

 

 

Can't argue with that, just took a look at the majority of the Ensembles to compare nationwide, and it's dry dry dry until 11-13th feb.

 

Looks like this HP is going to be a tough one to shift.

Edited February 3, 2015 by Dr. Astro

[Due South]

Significant aurora and geomagnetic activity is forecasted between the 4-8th. Could this help displace the High!!! This see what happens.

[mountain shadow]

According to Gavin Partridge he's looked at the stratosphere, CFS v2 weekly periods, GFS ensembles, GFS and ECM and his conclusion is for a colder than usual February, but drier. Have a lot of respect for him as he nailed January pretty much.

I could have told you that just by looking at the 6z GFS and GEFS. Hardly a difficult call to make given that the High Pressure is certain to be around for at least 10 days.

[picog]

I could have told you that just by looking at the 6z GFS and GEFS. Hardly a difficult call to make given that the High Pressure is certain to be around for at least 10 days.

A little disingenious. Did you also accurately forecast January?

[IDO]

The GFS 06z run shows an even stronger positive mean heights anomaly over the UK for D16: 

 

Looking further ahead ECM showing average temps and HP close by into March: 

 

  WSI_EuroEnergy
ECM shows HP becoming a dominant feature in central Europe in 3/4 weeks time. Average temps, but above norm in Scand. http://t.co/zQQerR0Gf1
03/02/2015 14:09

 

CFS week 3 and 4 similar to ECM:  

 

GEM mean at D16 is HP for the south and more unsettled for the NW:  

 

No real sign of HLB'ing for the UK sector at the moment for the first half of Feb (at least)  and I suspect it will only be once we head into March that we will see heights to our North. The MJO:

 

  WSI_EuroEnergy
GFS (& ECM) indicates MJO heading into phases 7 & 8. >30% chance of negative NAO by mid Feb. http://t.co/XZ4T2jh9uG
03/02/2015 14:21

 

The UKMO update till the 18th now in line with the current GFS FI output of HP in charge for most, especially the south. 

 

So a clear signal for Feb at the moment to be high dominated, just where the highs set up as to the surface conditions.

[Paul]

Don't want to run the thread off course, so please don't comment on it in here, but the monthly forecast was updated Monday, Ian's still expecting another colder spell toward the end of the month, with high pressure to the NW of the UK the driver of that. 

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=monthly;sess=

[seaside 60]

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

8-10 day 500mb charts continue with the theme of low heights to the south with one lobe of the trough over the eastern Med and another close to the Azores. The ridge to the north is flatter, slightly further south being squeezed between low height to the north and the low heights to the south. 06Z GFS shows the surface high meandering in the vicinity of the UK and western Europe which could give frosty nights with potential for freezing fog and inversion cold. At the same time western Europe is expected to slide into the freezer especially if it manages to catch more of a snow cover over the next few days and a drift from the continent could be decidely cold. 2.5 CM of snow here this morning and still on the hills so feeling optimistic. 

One would think that any high that gives the south any wind from the south/south east to north east, in fact any light continental drift, if western europe goes into the freezer will make it colder than what it is now.

[Gael_Force]

<Snipped>

 

But this winter is not a 'normal' one for sure. It seems to have had the ability to 'conjure' cold spells out of not much so maybe it can do it again before the end of meteorological winter. Then of course we know that March can provide pretty cold conditions in spite of increasing sun and warmth-think 2013 for many areas. 3 weeks after it supposedly finished a walking party I led still drove through 10-15cm of snow by the roadside on the way to the HF hotel near Dolgellau and we could not walk on Cader Idris due to snow and ice down to about 800ft, so for cold lovers the search for more cold and snow is not yet over in my view.

I would call this the "nearly" winter ...

 

nearly a SSW: plenty of warming events but lacking the final thrust.

nearly an el Nino for cold season end possibilities.

nearly the right phases of MJO but lacking the oomph.

nearly a reduction in solar activity but not enough just yet.

nearly the right conditions for good snowfall but always the one missing ingredient to make it happen so.

 

Report card will be marked ..."Must try harder next time."

[WINTRY WALES]

I would call this the "nearly" winter ...

 

nearly a SSW: plenty of warming events but lacking the final thrust.

nearly an el Nino for cold season end possibilities.

nearly the right phases of MJO but lacking the oomph.

nearly a reduction in solar activity but not enough just yet.

nearly the right conditions for good snowfall but always the one missing ingredient to make it happen so.

 

Report card will be marked ..."Must try harder next time."

Am I correct in that a lot of the above can be forecast a long way out or is a known now for next winter and beyond?? Things like El nino and solar activity etc??

[Day 10]

Yeah.... snow !!!

Lol good one!

 

gfs 96hrs.... Must try harder too!!

[Day 10]

GFS 120, 144

 

 

[igloo]

a bit of gloom here today with the current model runs i feel a bit like watching paint drying but it doesnt look so bad on the GFS for next week for the southern half of the country the greens (the cloud cover) doesnt make it further south than northern england so it still looks like it will still feel wintry with some moderate frosts there on the other hand the northern half looks a different story

 

Edited February 3, 2015 by igloo

[chionomaniac]

Look at the jet stream forecast pattern. Talk about long-winded, how much effort is being put in to cross the Atlantic? - just let some of it take the short cut and we will all be happy...

 

[Day 10]

UKMO 120 if anyone's interested, 96 didn't/hasn't come out?

[Summer Sun]

UKMO 120 if anyone's interested, 96 didn't/hasn't come out?

 

UKMO at t96 has updated

 

[Continental Climate]

One post in an hour and a half let the snore fest continue http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

Edited February 3, 2015 by Continental Climate

[Skullzrulerz]

ECM 0z run ( 96+ )

 

 

ECM 12z Run ( 96+ )

 

The High Pressure is stronger and sightly east on this run... Not so good news for snow fans.

Edited February 3, 2015 by Skulltheruler

[Snowman.]

ECM 0z run ( 96+ )

 

 

ECM 12z Run ( 96+ )

 

The High Pressure is stronger and sightly east on this run... Not so good news for snow fans.

They're at different times.

 

If you're going to compare use yesterdays run

 

 

T144 for anyone that really cares.

 

Edited February 3, 2015 by SN0WM4N

[Skullzrulerz]

They're at different times.

 

If you're going to compare use yesterdays run

 

 

 

Sorry i have no idea how to do that Only a newbie at this.

[Snowman.]

Sorry i have no idea how to do that Only a newbie at this.

 

Here.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=0&map=0&type=0&archive=1

[Gowon]

Skulltheruller, look top left corner..the chart has moved forward 12hrs, hence the difference.

Edit-snowman has already explained.

Edited February 3, 2015 by Vivian

[Long haul to mild]

I get the feeling that posters in this thread are going to have to increasingly resort to charts from deepest FI, because every chart in the usual reliable to semi reliable timeframe will look the same!

 

So here's one from T360 which shows a small low pressure area in the North Sea. As far as I can see it is the only time where low pressure gets to influence our weather in the slightest, and even then it's dull.

 

 

 

The tumbleweed blows.........................

Edited February 3, 2015 by Long haul to mild

[Day 10]

I think we all may aswell come back in around 5 days to see if anything has changed, decent agreement out to 120

 

 

[Mucka]

GFS ensembles Central England

 

 

850hpa 07/02 08/02 09/02 10/02 11/02 12/02 13/02 14/02 15/02 16/02 17/02 18/02 19/02 20/02

 

10C

 

  5C

 

  0C ___________________________________________________________________________________________

 

 -5C

 

-10C

 

 

 

At least ECM breaks the trance and swaps boring block for boring zonal.

 

 

Wake me up in March 

Edited February 3, 2015 by Mucka

[pdiddy]

might as well be the first to say it but winter looks to be all over if this evenings ECM is on the mark in the later stages its as flat as a pancake from canada to siberia

 

like this?

The high has to go somewhere and in '91 it went to Scandi...

Edited February 3, 2015 by pdiddy