Model Output Discussion - 1st February Onwards 12z--->

[Met4Cast]

Whats going on with the BBC forecasts? Thursday London Max 6c off an easterly with 850's close to -9 !!!

 

Sorry but I really don't know where they're finding those temperatures.

 

Their forecasts have been all over the place. In the space of 2 hours the forecast for tonight was 1-3cm, a light dusting and then nothing but rain/sleety showers. Regional's are at constant odds with the nationals and they consistently over estimate highs. I really don't understand it.

 

12z does look a little more encouraging than recent runs, but until the shortwave drama over the US is sorted, it's really not worth looking beyond T72

[Eugene]

Whats going on with the BBC forecasts? Thursday London Max 6c off an easterly with 850's close to -9 !!!

 

Sorry but I really don't know where they're finding those temperatures.

 

Well spot on for lassie's backyard.

[Midlands Ice Age]

 

Whats going on with the BBC forecasts? Thursday London Max 6c off an easterly with 850's close to -9 !!!

 

Sorry but I really don't know where they're finding those temperatures.

 

Nick,

This seems to be happening everyday.

Some places have been struggling to get above freezing point for the couple of days. (Not in Londom).

You will find that the 'headline' max temp quoted on BBC is always the temp for the centre of London.

Fact of life these days.

I just assumed it was the warming world.

MIA

Edit

The overnight temps are showing an even worse trend.

We have been promised an overnight severe frost, but the temps are showing as -1C.

With little wind, it just doesn't tie up.

Edited February 2, 2015 by Midlands Ice Age

[blizzard81]

Whats going on with the BBC forecasts? Thursday London Max 6c off an easterly with 850's close to -9 !!!

 

Sorry but I really don't know where they're finding those temperatures.

Global warming of course! Ooh, mischievous me lol.

[nick sussex]

Just what I said . 6c and sleet and rain showers tomorrow and wed . How cold to the uppers have to be to get snow . -5 850's use to be the bench mark. Especially easterly winds . They must be wrong surely

Well for convective snow showers they probably need colder but the 850's look supportive, even it was bone dry I've never seen temps of 6c off an easterly with 850's around -9, so we're supposed to believe it will get warmer off an easterly with less modification and a colder pool of air than the current non-Arctic northerly! lol

 

I just can't work out how they're coming up with these temps, is this the supposed heat Island working over time?

[phil nw.]

It looks like currently that Scandinavia and E.Europe will get repeated injections of deep cold around the east side of the Atlantic high in the coming 10 days.

We are so close to joining them in a prolonged cold spell we just need that high around another 20 or so longitude degrees further west.

 

With differences at T144hrs on the movement of the high then there is still room for this in the further outlook.

 

 

In the meantime we stay pretty cold this week with some wintry showers down the east and south east coastal counties.

I guess though many snow lovers away from the north still need to see further improvements in the charts before raising too much hope for more widespread chances of lying snow.

 

The overall pattern isn't bad as we have deep cold nearby but need better ridging and placement of the high to 

get it here.

 

[Cloud 10]

Whats going on with the BBC forecasts? Thursday London Max 6c off an easterly with 850's close to -9 !!!

 

Sorry but I really don't know where they're finding those temperatures.

 

Probably 6c around the houses of parliament with all the extra hot air in that area....

 

Otherwise more like 3c as a max temperature as per GFS.

 

[Dunlop Dave]

Nothing to do with the fact the sea is at its warmest for this time of year for a very, very long time ?? We've had record sea temps over the last 6 months here in Guernsey. That can't help.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Nothing to do with the fact the sea is at its warmest for this time of year for a very, very long time ?? We've had record sea temps over the last 6 months here in Guernsey. That can't help.

No that would only make a difference on the costal areas themselves , come in land and it would be fine .

The only thing warmer waters would do is pep up the showers which would work in our favour .

[polar vortex]

ECM 12z looks promising for what looks like a very potent northerly but we have seen many times these modelled west and then 

slowly get shunted east as we get nearer to t0 and by the time you get to t0 we were never in the equation at all. 

Of course this could be one of the other times when it has our name on it, fingers crossed. 

The 12z ecm run looks a lot better for snow prospects for east anglia and the south east with a stronger flow and probably 

stronger trough than what the GFS is showing. I just hope we aren't left with nothing ie trough to far south and east and also

northerly to far east.

Not worth mentioning the second reload as it to far out in la, la land and the ECM has flip, flopped like every other model at this

range. 

Finally nice to see with 850's around -8c today it was what you would call a proper cold day maxing out at only +2c. Slightly Milder 

tomorrow and Wednesday with higher 850''s before colder uppers and hopefully some snow on Thursday.

[Cheshire Freeze]

ECM 12z looks promising for what looks like a very potent northerly but we have seen many times these modelled west and then

slowly get shunted east as we get nearer to t0 and by the time you get to t0 we were never in the equation at all.

Of course this could be one of the other times when it has our name on it, fingers crossed.

The 12z ecm run looks a lot better for snow prospects for east anglia and the south east with a stronger flow and probably

stronger trough than what the GFS is showing. I just hope we aren't left with nothing ie trough to far south and east and also

northerly to far east.

Not worth mentioning the second reload as it to far out in la, la land and the ECM has flip, flopped like every other model at this

range.

Finally nice to see with 850's around -8c today it was what you would call a proper cold day maxing out at only +2c. Slightly Milder

tomorrow and Wednesday with higher 850''s before colder uppers and hopefully some snow on Thursday.

If anything, based on nowt but intuition, I'd wager that high is even further west come the time. Ever get the impression the NWP has been barking up the wrong tree?

Only 48 hrs ago we were facing a semi sinking high with mild southwesterlys pumping over the top. In fact Mushy was frothing at the mouth at the prospect. Now we have UKMO and ECM with retrograde signals in spite of (at face value) unfavourable PV characteristics.

P.S cfs runs I've seen recently have been very keen on higher than average heights somewhere to the NW for March - reds off the scale at times. 2013 keeps coming to my mind.

Edited February 2, 2015 by CreweCold

[Eugene]

Much better JMA 12Z with the high slam bang over us next week with frosty nights and a fog risk, miles better than atlantic westerlies on ECM.

[Bogman]

Much better JMA 12Z with the high slam bang over us next week with frosty nights and a fog risk, miles better than atlantic westerlies on ECM.

A continuation on the theme then. For some.

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

What do the ECM 216 and 240 look like anyone?

192 looked quite good for a further trough dropping across us with the Azores High displaced well to the West?

[Weather-history]

What do the ECM 216 and 240 look like anyone?

The story of this winter. A jet going roughly NW to SE. How many times has that happened this winter?

[polar vortex]

If anything, based on nowt but intuition, I'd wager that high is even further west come the time. Ever get the impression the NWP has been barking up the wrong tree?

Only 48 hrs ago we were facing a semi sinking high with mild southwesterlys pumping over the top. In fact Mushy was frothing at the mouth at the prospect. Now we have UKMO and ECM with retrograde signals in spite of (at face value) unfavourable PV characteristics.

P.S cfs runs I've seen recently have been very keen on higher than average heights somewhere to the NW for March - reds off the scale at times. 2013 keeps coming to my mind.

Really hope you are right as it looks like one heck of a northerly and would certainly bring a heavy band of snow south 

with it. 

Just to comment on the temperatures. The beeb this morning showed 6c  over London, I live in hertfordshire and only 

reached +2c so I doubt London got anywhere near 6C, +4c more like it if they were lucky.

 

P.S looking at temps around london today on the meto site it looks like +3c was the max.

Edited February 2, 2015 by polar vortex

[ANYWEATHER]

If anyone has got any reasons "not" to believe the model output in the nearer time frame have a look at Ecm.....T+96hrs to T+120 hrs      High pressure over the Uk .then 24hrs later its retrogressed to near the mid Atlantic.....   Need I say anymore

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Whats going on with the BBC forecasts? Thursday London Max 6c off an easterly with 850's close to -9 !!!

 

Sorry but I really don't know where they're finding those temperatures.

It really has to come into question, 1c here all day and NOT 4-6c as predicted.....an absolute joke...almost propoganda? 

 

 

Back to models, GFS now picking up on correct signal and seeing another trough set up over Scandi down the line? 

 

such a good post by ANYWEATHER.......worth taking note

 

BFTP

Edited February 2, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Carlrg]

Once established over us that HP ain't going anywhere according to the GFS.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php

Edited February 2, 2015 by Carlrg

[Cloud 10]

Good support from the ECM ensembles for the operational run at the crucial day 6 with the return of the "black hole"

 

[snowice]

Well for convective snow showers they probably need colder but the 850's look supportive, even it was bone dry I've never seen temps of 6c off an easterly with 850's around -9, so we're supposed to

believe it will get

warmer off an easterly with less modification and a colder pool of air than the current non-Arctic northerly! lol

 

I just can't work out how they're coming up with these temps, is this the supposed heat Island working over time?

HI nick any word on the USA pattern upstream from 12z as to which model they prefer at t72hr

[Evening thunder]

It really has to come into question, 1c here all day and NOT 4-6c as predicted.....an absolute joke...almost propoganda? 

 

 

Back to models, GFS now picking up on correct signal and seeing another trough set up over Scandi down the line? 

 

such a good post by ANYWEATHER.......worth taking note

 

BFTP

 

Propaganda for what? The BBC city temps may be a little high at times, but here the maxima have been as forecast or a degree higher, today's 4.7c was the highest lowest of this spell (forecast 4c) I do think showers may be more wintry than they made it sound on the 6:30 forecast I saw though but I could be wrong.

 

I see uppers for Thursday of -7c on the ECM.. can't tell what the UKMO says, but I'm sure they would go with that over the good old GFS. GEM/JMA support the ECM.

 

GFS has a max of 4c at -9c uppers so...

 

To be honest, white I think the temps may be a touch high I am not sure why there is so much surprise from some experienced members, the centre of London will be one of the warmest locations.

 

I feel they tend to over-do night temps for some towns by showing 'centre of large city' temps, but when they do show countryside temps they tend to be nearer the mark for the colder spots.

Edited February 2, 2015 by Evening thunder

[Biggin]

Propaganda for what? The BBC city temps may be a little high at times, but here the maxima have been as forecast or a degree higher, today's 4.7c was the highest lowest of this spell (forecast 4c) I do think showers may be more wintry than they made it sound on the 6:30 forecast I saw though but I could be wrong.

 

I see uppers for Thursday of -7c on the ECM.. can't tell what the UKMO says, but I'm sure they would go with that over the good old GFS. GEM/JMA support the ECM.

 

GFS has a max of 4c at -9c uppers so...

 

To be honest, white I think the temps may be a touch high I am not sure why there is so much surprise from some experienced members, the centre of London will be one of the warmest locations.

 

I feel they tend to over-do night temps for some towns by showing 'centre of large city' temps, but when they do show countryside temps they tend to be nearer the mark for the colder spots.

Here being Devon ??

[nick sussex]

HI nick any word on the USA pattern upstream from 12z as to which model they prefer at t72hr

I'm still waiting for the latest update but theres obviously a big divergence between the GEFS and ECM ensembles for next weekend.

 

It's hard to believe the ECM has got this wrong given  its at T72hrs as that's when the big differences start, its also supported by the UKMO although that's a little flatter but still has the same type of coastal low near Newfoundland at T96hrs.

Edited February 2, 2015 by nick sussex

[GrangemouthBairn]

I've copied this from my post on the Scottish thread

Was at a talk this evening at edinburgh uni from someone who works as a weather forecaster at the Met Office. It was very interesting and he put up a run of the Mogreps-Global model for Edinburgh. He summarised it by saying tonight would be cold and dry, temperatures about -2/-3. Tomorrow would be cold but cloudy with a chance of snow flurries in the afternoon from that decaying band that's moving south. The rest of this week as well as the weekend would be dry and cold. There were signs at the start of next week of the high pressure slipping west and slghtly further south with Atlantic mobility gradually asserting itself, turning a bit milder. He then said there were some members amplifying the high to the west around midmonth which would lead to further northerly outbreaks in the second half of February. But that is obviously a long way off. Feel quite special that I've seen a run of mogreps ensembles!

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