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Model Output Discussion - 1st February Onwards 12z--->

Polar Maritime

By Polar Maritime
in Forecast Model Discussion

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

The UKMO is an interesting run - even at day 4, it's interesting.  Wonder how cold that easterly across the South would be by then?

 

UW96-21.GIF?02-17

 

not very warm that much is certain, whether anything falls from the sky in another question, one to watch the next day or two pretty closely.

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Nouska Accomplished

Nouska

Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
Posted

Further to my post on the MJO last night - first output reflecting possible phase eight coming into very low resolution. It is not there yet on the Pacific side but it is a step in the right direction.

 

gfsnh-12-384_dtz4.png  LRpEQWp.gif?1

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

p8 in the GFS ensembles is like UMO with an upgrade.

 

gensnh-8-1-168.pnggens-8-0-168.png

 

Unlike this cold spell there will be some very cold air available to the N/NE to tap into immediately.

Things becoming just a little clearer now perhaps but can we back the pattern far enough West to get another cold spell?

I think we may need more than one bite at the cherry to get the trough into Europe and the high displaced far enough West but that is still my favoured outcome.

 

It would be great if ECM was further West and more amplified this evening and resembles something like that p8 run.

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Kentish Snowman in Yorks Experienced

Kentish Snowman in Yorks

Posted
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
Posted

p8 in the GFS ensembles is like UMO with an upgrade.

 

gensnh-8-1-168.pnggens-8-0-168.png

 

Unlike this cold spell there will be some very cold air available to the N/NE to tap into immediately.

Things becoming just a little clearer now perhaps but can we back the pattern far enough West to get another cold spell?

I think we may need more than one bite at the cherry to get the trough into Europe and the high displaced far enough West but that is still my favoured outcome.

 

It would be great if ECM was further West and more amplified this evening and resembles something like that p8 run.

-12 uppers covering a good proportion of the UK there. If only!

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)

Interesting

 

ECH1-120.GIF?02-0gfsnh-0-120.png

 

Such a huge difference in how far West the pattern is. ECM is close to a reload a la that GFS p8 run I posted earlier.

Edited by Mucka
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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)

ECM 144 has the cold air pushing back in at 144 but too much energy around SW to Greenland to sustain it. We will need the second attempt to back things further West still and hope for a proper cold Atlantic block to form between 192 and 240.

 

ECH1-144.GIF?02-0ECH0-144.GIF?02-0

 

Another option would be to have the trough dig SW and have a ridge extend toward /Scandinavia if we can get to close to this stage in reality.

Edited by Mucka
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Severe Siberian icy blast Experienced

Severe Siberian icy blast

Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
Posted

Considering this week is meant to be a week with reall cold air above the bbc weather talking rain and sleet showers into the afternoon of tomorrow and Wednesday? Is it really impossible to get some real cold in this country without things been marginal ?

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Day 10 Maestro

Day 10

Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
Posted

Back into the freezer on Sunday if ECM is correct

 

ECU0-144.GIF?02-0ECU1-144.GIF?02-0

 

:cold:

Could this develop into the coldest spell of the winter and can it go out with a bang??!!

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted (edited)

What drama upstream with this huge disagreement between the ECM/UKMO and GFS.

 

So which model is more likely to be wrong at T72hrs because this is where the disagreements start, bear in mind that this NCEP update was done before the ECM/UKMO 12hrs runs.

 

CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW HERE...GIVEN ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED
DEEPER WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST THU MORNING...WHILE
OVER THE SAME TIME...GEFS MEMBERS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER. BY LATE
THU...THE GFS AND GEFS REPRESENT A FLATTER/FASTER IDEA...WHILE THE
ECMWF/UKMET HAVE CONSISTENTLY REPRESENTED A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER
TROUGH OVER THEIR PAST 3 MODEL CYCLES.

THE GFS IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER ACROSS THE WEST COAST WITH A WEAKER
UPPER RIDGE LATE THU...CONSISTENT DOWNSTREAM WITH A FLATTER
TROUGH. SINCE THE GFS HAS LITTLE SUPPORT ACROSS THE WEST COAST AT
THIS TIME...THE GFS/GEFS SOLUTION WILL BE CONSIDERED A LOW
PROBABILITY OF VERIFYING. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF/UKMET ARE QUITE DEEP
AND GIVEN RECENT INCONSISTENCIES IN THE ECMWF MODEL...WE DO NOT
FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING TOWARD THE MORE AMPLIFIED IDEA. IN THE
MIDDLE...WE HAVE THE 12Z NAM AND 00Z CMC...HENCE THE PREFERENCE.

 

Around 8pm UK time the State forecasts update and they will factor in the ECM/UKMO 12hrs runs so it will be interesting if they go more towards those seeing as their operationals are refusing to tone down the amplification.

 

Edited by nick sussex
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Cloud 10 Veteran

Cloud 10

Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
Posted

Should be a good ending to the ECM with the HP being yanked away west at 192 hrs allowing the trough to the north-west to pay us a visit.

 

post-2839-0-81292500-1422902767_thumb.gi

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igloo Enthusiast

igloo

Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
Posted (edited)

the ECM has bee very bullish on a slow sinking HP from day 7 onwards the opportunity is there at +144h to move in to greenland but highly unlikely to happen dew to the vortex so strong a greenland HP is about 1 in 10 year event sadly

Edited by igloo
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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

Whats going on with the BBC forecasts? Thursday London Max 6c off an easterly with 850's close to -9 !!!

 

Sorry but I really don't know where they're finding those temperatures.

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Severe Siberian icy blast Experienced

Severe Siberian icy blast

Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
Posted

Whats going on with the BBC forecasts? Thursday London Max 6c off an easterly with 850's close to -9 !!!

 

Sorry but I really don't know where they're finding those temperatures.

Just what I said . 6c and sleet and rain showers tomorrow and wed . How cold to the uppers have to be to get snow . -5 850's use to be the bench mark. Especially easterly winds . They must be wrong surely
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Whats going on with the BBC forecasts? Thursday London Max 6c off an easterly with 850's close to -9 !!!

 

Sorry but I really don't know where they're finding those temperatures.

The same BBC who (only at lunchtime!) said that Thursday could see a fair amount of snow - in Eastern/Southeastern England?

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