Model Output Discussion - 1st February Onwards 12z--->

[Troubleatmill]

like this?

The high has tp go somewhere and in '91 it went to Scandi...

Yep and im sure im not the only one who would prefer dry quiet weather instead of wind and rain, + like you say the high can drift anywhere, recall there was a few pre the 2010 coldest december in 100 years who wanted shut of the high over us at the time as it waisted time.

[phil nw.]

Please keep moans etc to the other thread here

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81281-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-autumnwinter-201415/

 

i have moved some such posts and their replies over there where they should be.

 

If your post doesn't add to model output views then please use other threads.

 

Thanks all.

[Day 10]

Not sure if these tweets have been mentioned, from Matt Hugo, should help with the mood a bit:

 

Interesting latest EC32 update which shows Scandinavian blocking setting up through Feb with possible continental influence temp wise.

 

It also supports this MJO evolution as well with it entering into a low phase 8 - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif â€¦ = blocking patterns.

 

Thoughts on rest of Feb: A zonal, mild, wet & windy month looks unlikely to me. Could be some interesting & 'quick' developments re; cold wx

[Long haul to mild]

Here's at great chart from the GEFS tonight at T360! We have got to have something to lift spirits even if it is la la land on a single ensemble member!

 

Edited February 3, 2015 by Long haul to mild

[Harsh Climate]

like this?

The high has tp go somewhere and in '91 it went to Scandi...

 

99/100 it will sink south though (bartlett territory) 

[pdiddy]

99/100 it will sink south though (bartlett territory) 

99/100?  So we just got lucky in 2009 and 2010 and shouldn't, by your statistical probablility, have another for 200 years?  In any case, the high slipping South would not be a Bartlett.  The high could just as easily move West leaving us in the colder flow - this to me is just as likely as heading South.

[chris55]

like this?

The high has to go somewhere and in '91 it went to Scandi...

 

 

Thats a good post, I think the big high anomaly into the weekend is pretty much nailed, where it goes and what happens next is realistically many runs away. We need some luck but this big high could go anywhere!

[polar vortex]

The threat of snow over east Anglia, and southeast England Wednesday night into Thursday looks to be diminishing 

all the time. Also the threat of another northerly reload was never really there in the first place, just another ECM 

poor run to add to the growing list. Certainly not much in the way of wintry weather to look forward to in the mid range 

( day 5 to 10) beyond that who knows. 

It certainly looks as though the vortex this winter is  far more robust than we thought judging by the latest runs and 

despite posts throwing everything into the equation for this winter ie GWO,QBO, MJO, Enso, solar and strat and  

covering all angles searching for answers the weather does what it wants to do.

Frosty at night and dry but rather cold perhaps by day looks the order of the day as we go through next week.

[sunnijim]

might as well be the first to say it but winter looks to be all over if this evenings ECM is on the mark in the later stages its as flat as a pancake from canada to siberia

Well,the here and now isn't too shabby,threat of snow showers and a screaming Easterly by Friday across Southern England.Chill facter of -7c.

Thereafter it looks a borefest,but things change quickly,I am confident we will get another decent shot at cold/snow before March is here.

Around mid month we lose the Highs influence for sure.

[chionomaniac]

I can't really see any HLB's forming over the next 10 days, but I think that it is a bit early to rule it out for the second half of February, and we know that March can still deliver impressive snow despite the longer days.

 

I think that the pattern that will start to show is hinted at by tonights ECM days 9-10 and it is one that we have become very familiar with this winter. That is recurrent depressions recurving over the top over the Azores high leaving the UK in a predominantly NW airflow with predominantly -5ºC 850's flowing in from the Atlantic. We see some support stratospherically with this pattern with further hints that the stratospheric polar vortex will maintain a Siberia displacement trend as highlighted by the latest GFS in FI.

 

 

The MJO forecasts keep the suggestion of a more meridional Atlantic pattern as we have seen with the longest lasting toppler ever - in fact it never really toppled properly as the jet stream chart I posted earlier shows. Moreso, the eastern section of the toppler jet stream buckled completely, without the jet stream ever taking an undercutting more southerly flow, close but no cigar there!

Check out the latest ECM and GFS MJO forecasts - there is no hint of a return to phases 4/5  -more a lock in to the current phased pattern.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

 

 

So again it will be no surprise to see another set of toppling type lows start to develop, dragging down colder 850's each time until eventually we see another northerly, which wil be possibly colder than the one just passed, and if this coincides with a strong MJO event, then we could just see that undercut occr and snap things into position.

 

I for one haven't given up on this winter just yet - each cold spell has been progressively longer lived and more potent than the previous and just perhaps the best will be saved for last?

 

I suspect that the ensembles will start to head in that direction - already signs.

 

[Rocheydub]

Well,the here and now isn't too shabby,threat of snow showers and a screaming Easterly by Friday across Southern England.Chill facter of -7c.

Thereafter it looks a borefest,but things change quickly,I am confident we will get another decent shot at cold/snow before March is here.

Around mid month we lose the Highs influence for sure.

Based on?

[Supercell 89]

Well I think i'm the only one who's not downbeat by tonights output. Its not mild, its not wet Instead its dry and cool/cold at least for another week, ok its not crisp sunshine but who knows it might be and i'd rather have this any day over boring mild crap southwesterlies.

 

I don't think this High pressure will be going anywhere fast, have been wondering whether its persistence may have a feedback on the stratosphere in the long run, plenty to be optimistic about yet

Edited February 3, 2015 by Supercell 89

[Midlands Ice Age]

 

Well,the here and now isn't too shabby,threat of snow showers and a screaming Easterly by Friday across Southern England.Chill facter of -7c.

Thereafter it looks a borefest,but things change quickly,I am confident we will get another decent shot at cold/snow before March is here.

Around mid month we lose the Highs influence for sure.

Aha, I was wondering if someone else saw this.

It was the national BBC(MO?) forecast at 18:30. It actually spoke about an increasing increasingly bitter easterly setting in on thursday, 'straight from Germany' with the high centred over N Ireland and a ridge to Sweden.Now none of the model runs I have seen today show this.

Where/which model is the BBC getting this information from?

MIA

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening folks, with the likely onset of a mid latitude high across the nation, its probably taken the "wind out of the sails" for many folks who crave cold weather and rightly so!   Anticyclonic gloom. dirty high , clean high, Whatever it turns out to be this is nothing new for February.,,,,,,,,"February fill dyke" was the reason the farmers and growers  called this month that because satistically its the Nations driest month.  On the contrary , farmers and growers wanted this to be a very wet month hence "fill dyke" so if a dry Spring or even Summer beckoned at least there will be some moisture left in the soil.......so there is nothing new historically in todays output    

Edited February 3, 2015 by ANYWEATHER

[nick sussex]

 

Aha, I was wondering if someone else saw this.

It was the national BBC(MO?) forecast at 18:30. It actually spoke about an increasing increasingly bitter easterly setting in on thursday, 'straight from Germany' with the high centred over N Ireland and a ridge to Sweden.Now none of the model runs I have seen today show this.

Where/which model is the BBC getting this information from?

MIA

I think its because the flow turns more east than ne which means less modification and lower dew points. Indeed the 850's are less cold on Friday than Thursday but conversely the former is colder in terms of surface temperatures.

Edited February 3, 2015 by nick sussex

[knocker]

 

Aha, I was wondering if someone else saw this.

It was the national BBC(MO?) forecast at 18:30. It actually spoke about an increasing increasingly bitter easterly setting in on thursday, 'straight from Germany' with the high centred over N Ireland and a ridge to Sweden.Now none of the model runs I have seen today show this.

Where/which model is the BBC getting this information from?

MIA

 

The GFS?

Chart courtesy weatherbell

[Hotspur62]

Well I think i'm the only one who's not downbeat by tonights output. Its not mild, its not wet Instead its dry and cool/cold at least for another week, ok its not crisp sunshine but who knows it might be and i'd rather have this any day over boring mild crap southwesterlies.

 

I don't think this High pressure will be going anywhere fast, have been wondering whether its persistence may have a feedback on the stratosphere in the long run, plenty to be optimistic about yet

I agree. Whilst this cold spell not lived up to expectations with regards to snow I didn't really expect it to tbh as there was never cross model agreement and good trends of HLB to achieve what most on here really wanted(including me).I thought that this would be the case as with previous cold spell in Jan which also lacked HLB. However, I feel that whilst we are in  for a quiet spell of weather with coolish temps(more so in Southern half of UK compared to Northern UK if the projected positioning of the High is correct) a newer pattern will start to emerge from Mid February and I think it will be a case of 3rd time lucky. Just feel with a quiet Atlantic, still Lowish pressure over Med, that the High will drift North Eastwards and we will have a Scandi High and this will be the 3rd part of the jigsaw that will deliver the goods.

 

I have based this on past trends and gut instinct as well as looking at current Models and is only my take on things and like Supercell above I try and be Half Full as opposed to Half Empty

[sunnijim]

Aha, I was wondering if someone else saw this.It was the national BBC(MO?) forecast at 18:30. It actually spoke about an increasing increasingly bitter easterly setting in on thursday, 'straight from Germany' with the high centred over N Ireland and a ridge to Sweden.Now none of the model runs I have seen today show this.Where/which model is the BBC getting this information from?MIA

The ukmo came close to progging that scenario on yesterdays 12z.

It would be one for Ian F to speak out on,maybe the 'inhouse' models are pointing at a 'better' Easterly than the current gfs/ecm output suggest.

[Harsh Climate]

99/100?  So we just got lucky in 2009 and 2010 and shouldn't, by your statistical probablility, have another for 200 years?  In any case, the high slipping South would not be a Bartlett.  The high could just as easily move West leaving us in the colder flow - this to me is just as likely as heading South.

 

Yes we got very lucky Could be a long time until anything like that happens again ; )

[sunnijim]

Based on?

Watching weather patterns for a good 30 of my 40 years on the planet..!Nothing more technical than that im afraid,as i said on page 13,my hunch is the HIgh will slide back toward the azores mid month or slide SE into mainland Europe.

Followed by A brief influence on a zonal Westerly (nothing extreme) before a wintery shot in the last week.

[Harsh Climate]

The final kick in the teeth from this rather toothless cold spell

 

 

 

OUCH!

[nick sussex]

The final kick in the teeth from this rather toothless cold spell

 

 

 

OUCH!

It's not quite as ouch as it might seem! That region of Spain is quite high up, much of it above 2000 feet.

Edited February 3, 2015 by nick sussex

[James M]

The final kick in the teeth from this rather toothless cold spell

 

 

 

OUCH!

 

 

The Spanish interior is high up though, a lot of those areas are 1000m+

[John Badrick]

Yes we got very lucky Could be a long time until anything like that happens again ; )

I would say in about 3-4 years time around solar min, so not that long to wait!

[mcweather]

FroM Retron over on TWO;

 

The ECM 32-day control run shows a zonal spell setting in from 240 to 444, then high pressure surges NE'wards and a monster (>1060) Scandinavian High sets up. This then eventually retrogresses westwards, all the while with lows barrelling along close to the UK.

 

We can only look at it retrospectively if we don't subscribe to Weatherbell or similar. From what I can make out on the verification page, it has performed well this winter.

 

All to play for. I'd say.