Model Output Discussion - 1st February Onwards 12z--->

[SE Blizzards]

Yep getting a 2013 vibe. Been showing this scenario very regularly recently.

 

I know the CFS get's a fair bit of stick at times (and in most cases rightly so), but overall it has performed rather well this Winter as a whole.

And i seem to recall that it pretty much nailed the Cold March of 2013 well in advance.

It'll certainly be interesting to see whether or not it remains consistent with this Cold March signal as we head further on into Feb.

[tight isobar]

Lots of talk "regards" a cold march (probability). Let's remember its early Feb' still. And the agravaiting modeled (cross) HP stagnate jn our part WILL at some point imo soon" in mid later part models show sink or swim upon opening a wide book of possible scenarios.

[WINTRY WALES]

I must be getting old....can anyone remind me of what occurred during March 2013?? What parts of the country fared best etc?? Right I'm off to the docs to get my head checked

[SE Blizzards]

I must be getting old....can anyone remind me of what occurred during March 2013?? What parts of the country fared best etc?? Right I'm off to the docs to get my head checked

 

 It was the coldest March in the UK since 1962.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2013/march

[SussexmarkyMark]

 It was the coldest March in the UK since 1962.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2013/march

 

Ah yes, it brings back memories of spending the night of the 11th March 2013 in my car on the M23, north of Brighton.   I'm not expecting that quantity of snowfall tomorrow, but the charts as posted by Dr Astro above, do suggest a risk of some sort of snowfall.

[Snowman.]

Yep getting a 2013 vibe. Been showing this scenario very regularly recently.

Signal has been shown since winter has began.

 

Hard to ignore it's consistency that far out.

[Jason M]

Interesting development at 144 on GFS. Easterly maybe.

 

Not a complete shock given the earlier ensembles either.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0

[warrenb]

The Seasterly progged on the GFS will be freezing here in the SE.

[Team Jo]

me neither, it cost me too much lost income..

but all this hopecasting talk of 'another march 2013' really is clutching at straws imho... because that march was highly unusual. not  that it was cold, but the longevity of it.

...and the fact it's 4th Feb....??

[goosey007]

The Seasterly progged on the GFS will be freezing here in the SE.

SEASTERLY is this a feed of wind that covers all directions for us in the UK? If so its the best forecast I've herd on here!

Edited February 4, 2015 by goosey007

[SE Blizzards]

By the looks of it a better GFS 12Z so far i would say. Still remaining fairly chilly out to Day 8.

Edited February 4, 2015 by Polar Maritime
To remove deleted quote.

[festivalking]

I can't speak for bristle boy, but I know that I only experienced a couple of flurries, and that's it... Certainly no laying snow!

The channel Islands nicked our only main chance which was a channel low!

 

That channel low missing the SW still haunts me to this day. a bit of a SE flow coming on board not a bone chiller but not mild mush!

 

- 

[Snowman.]

Also

 

RING A DING A LING

 

This can either end horribly or amazingly.

Edited February 4, 2015 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.

[warrenb]

The GFS never really warms up in the South East at all.

[winterof79]

By the looks of it a better GFS 12Z i would say. Still remaining fairly chilly out to Day 8.

We are moving off topic so i have posted some photos in the Gallery to ease the pain.

 

 

Interesting development at 144 on GFS. Easterly maybe.

 

Not a complete shock given the earlier ensembles either.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0

I cannot see an Easterly,just high pressure slap bang over us?

 

Well i suppose it is an easterly, of kitten proportions though

Edited February 4, 2015 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.

[warrenb]

Am I right in saying the resolution on the new GFS drops at 252 rather 192 that it used to ?

[frosty ground]

Today's runs are not as high Pressure dominated as yesterdays runs....... by this I mean a high sat bang over the UK is now changing into a high that is moving around and has the change to be better positioned... for both mild and Cold weather.

Someone Posted a 2005 chart before....... 

Edited February 4, 2015 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.

[Snowman.]

Am I right in saying the resolution on the new GFS drops at 252 rather 192 that it used to ?

Yep.

[Polar Maritime]

Can we please head back to Model Discussion, A few post are starting to go off topic, They have been moved to the moan/banter thread. So if you find yours missing it's in there.

 

Thanks PM

Edited February 4, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[winterof79]

This cold spell and the influence of the high has not been handled too well by the Models

 

This is what GFS had down for today,last Thursday,an ubstable cold flow with the high displaced to our s/w

 

In reality today, the high has not moved too far away.

 

Edited February 4, 2015 by winterof79

[phil nw.]

No real change in the overall pattern wrt to a High modelled around the UK for at least a week.

Just variations on where it goes when it does finally shift.

The latest version by the GFS moves it east in week 2 which would bring some low surface temperatures across on a south easterly.

 

 

Not very exciting weather wise,some frosts most nights and some cold days and quite dry for much of the time.

Looking at it another way though it is not a bad set up even at day 8 on this run with plenty of cold air around for us to tap into with the Atlantic still looking very sluggish.

A little bit of ridging in the jet and the block could place itself more favourably to get that deep cold here.

 

[Jason M]

GEFS out to 114 and quite a few are throwing a bit of a ridge across Scandi. Just a little trend to watch for to see if it develops into anything.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=114&mode=0&carte=0

Edited February 4, 2015 by Jason M

[Captain Shortwave]

There is the potential for an Atlantic trough to develop more robustly by day 6/7, this allows the high to drift east and set up a more continental flow.

UKMO day 6

GFS

If we can develop a trough to our west and that cold pool over south east Europe could drift westwards along the Med, then the UK high might be allowed to drift towards Scandinavia and set up a east to south easterly wind. Though at the moment it would be a dry and cold feed rather than the snowy variety. I wouldn't rule out something developing, especially as Scandi heights have been hinted at here and there.

[knocker]

I'm quietly amazed that people bandy the word 'easterly' around as if it's the Holy Grail. My understanding of a true easterly is one with a long easterly fetch not the light easterly airs of a closed anticyclonic circulation. I believe T144 was mentioned. Well that gives an 850mb temp of around 0.0C and a max surface temp of around 5.0C

Chart weatherbell

 

[tight isobar]

Already this evening' there is possible displacement of the HP... Well of sorts! And surely one can only ponder further displaced' options within the model s through the next 2/3 days.

Its migration' placement is obviously the big question. However again many many options on the table at this point!