Model Output Discussion - 1st February Onwards 12z--->

[Captain Shortwave]

Exactly, people acting like it's mid March next week and not mid February, when the high moves directly over us and just to east it will be very chilly with a high fog risk which can hang around all day.

 

Also incorrect to talk of wide diurnal temp ranges this early, it's towards the Spring Equinox in mid March when you see these wide ranges like -4C at night to 13C in the afternoon, this won't occur next week as it's too early by about at least 3 to 4 weeks.

Actually February 2008 brought night-time frosts and temperatures in double figures by day under clear skies and southerly winds. That occurred during the second week of February with a very mild draw of 850s combined with a dry southerly wind. So it is possible, especially given the sun strength is similar to October and with the correct set up.

No signs tonight of any biting cold, but again a cold continental flow is possible.

Edited February 4, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[danthetan]

With all do respect Germany is a very big country snow blizzard is that an average temperature of -1 your quoting?? I think SE continental feed will be quite chilly.

[blizzard81]

Oh my! Think the dam is going to burst on the gfs 18z. Stella run coming up maybe!

[seaside 60]

WSI Energy Weather â€@WSI_Energy 5h5 hours ago

Left: Our in-house MJO+ENSO automated analog pattern; Right: ECMWF weekly forecast. Almost spot on.

 

Big time +NAO to emerge during Week 3; will drive circulation across much of the Northern Hemisphere; European thaw

Sorry week 3 is yonks away.

It also goes against most of what I have read on here during the last few days, which is also yonks away.

All models have to be written about, but how about something more useable like the next week, which is also yonks away in reagrds to model accuracy.

[Jason M]

Well this looks like it's going to be a little different

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=180&mode=0

Northerly incoming!

Edit, nope, we snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory with a ...... You guessed it ... UK high

Edited February 4, 2015 by Jason M

[Daniel*]

T+180

HP having a lesser influence over the UK - transferring eastwards where's it going to go.

[pdiddy]

Well this looks like it's going to be a little different

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=180&mode=0

Northerly incoming!

yep.different  just the 40mb drop in pressure on the atlantic low in 18 hours then.  Nevermind "dartboard", that's a black hole!  don't see a Northerly yet though

Edited February 4, 2015 by pdiddy

[Day 10]

Let's hope there are changes afoot mid-term, this would be step in the right direction.

 

 

[Eugene]

T+180

image.jpg

HP having a lesser influence over the UK - transferring eastwards where's it going to go.

 

 

Replaced by another HP cell directly over us.

[Nouska]

That's a doozy of a low!

 

 

Now where have I seen one similar? - ah yes, I was looking through the charts for the upstream analogue years.

 

[Jason M]

yep.different just the 40mb drop in pressure on the atlantic low in 18 hours then. Nevermind "dartboard", that's a black hole! don't see a Northerly yet though

Although a fail on this run, it's a good trend tbh and backed in broad terms by the last set of ensembles.

I'm actually quite encouraged today and think we will squeeze one more chance before we enter March. If we do it could be potent as well.

Shame we will loose the brutal cold of the current spell though. As just said on the bbc Friday will be bitter with freezing air off the continent. Temps between 4 and 6c. The over ramping of this week has been utterly ridiculous IMHO. Not so long ago most of this week would have been described as 'rather cold'. The warnings issued have been equally ludicrous. Trouble is that people will stop paying attention to them and get caught out big style when a warning really is justified. Rant over :-)

Edited February 4, 2015 by Jason M

[mountain shadow]

Like Wsi energy showed a huge neasterly and prolonged Feb cold back in Jan...proceed with caution

The difference is it forecasts a +NAO therefore far more likely to verify. Ties in nicely with Meto longer ranger also.

[Polar Maritime]

Much stronger amplification on tonight's run, With the High snailing further North... The Atlantic continues well blocked with lot's of macro variations reg the high over the UK and it's movements. Some promising signals for surface cold to hang on.

 

[frosty ground]

The difference is it forecasts a +NAO therefore far more likely to verify. Ties in nicely with Meto longer ranger also.

Why is it?

[Scorcher]

Actually February 2008 brought night-time frosts and temperatures in double figures by day under clear skies and southerly winds. That occurred during the second week of February with a very mild draw of 850s combined with a dry southerly wind. So it is possible, especially given the sun strength is similar to October and with the correct set up.

No signs tonight of any biting cold, but again a cold continental flow is possible.

 

Quite right, was going to say this myself. It actually looks not too dissimilar from the charts of mid February 2008. Of course there are plenty of other examples of mild, sunny February weather. I'm thinking 1998 and late February 2012 as notable ones. So it is not necessarily cut and dried that high pressure will mean depressed temperatures, by day at least. With the increasing strength of the sun we can start to see temperatures rising into the teens from now on in the right setup.

 

In reply to another poster as well, the continent is not all that cold and can warm rather quickly if a southerly sets up- the track for a southerly here is over France which is not usually that cold anyway.

[kumquat]

 

(the weather equivalent of Fergie time for snow)

What does that actually mean?

[Daniel*]

Replaced by another HP cell directly over us.

Nothing to cheery about it is just brings boring nothingness as well it is much diluted in comparison to the monster 1040mb modelled for this weekend. Alright for Summer but not appropriate at this time of year. The trend is encouraging, HP seems to want to explore, I reckon upcoming days will start getting interesting, with increased amplification towards the NW or NE. It is February 4th all is 'fine'.

Edited February 4, 2015 by Daniel*

[kumquat]

Nothing to cheery about it is just brings boring nothingness. Alright for Summer but not appropriate at this time of year. The trend is encouraging, HP seems to want to explore, I reckon upcoming days will start getting interesting, with increased amplification towards the NW or NE. It is February 4th all is 'fine'.

It is quite appropriate if it is becomes reality.

Edited February 4, 2015 by kumquat

[Jason M]

What does that actually mean?

Edited as easier to remove than explain :-)

[igloo]

please someone marry this HP and take it on a honeymoon its the only way to get rid of it its still there in another 16 days time and never gets in to a favorable posion

[kumquat]

At the end of the day there's two major land masses over this side of the Northern Hemisphere. The deep cold of the polar vortex will be attracted to "bed in" on either or both at any one time. Quite often it will sit in on both and we're left in the slack which is the only realistic place where warmer air from the Tropics can encroach. And that's what it does.

[Daniel*]

It is quite appropriate if it is reality.

In some ways you are correct typically feb is the driest month, and the Atlantic goes to sleep. It will bring no warmth, some cold minima associated with it too. I see no interest in such weather for the time of year, from a personal perspective. I'd rather have some mobility in the flow, it is important in the winter we get some prolonged rainfall to fill up reservoirs & groundwater, to hold out for the spring/summer months with increased evaporation, it has been exceptionally dry. In my parts we could be approaching drought soon.

[bluearmy]

At the end of the day there's two major land masses over this side of the Northern Hemisphere. The deep cold of the polar vortex will be attracted to "bed in" on either or both at any one time. Quite often it will sit in on both and we're left in the slack which is the only realistic place where warmer air from the Tropics can encroach. And that's what it does.

Jeez - when you put but like that, i think I'm going to become a mildie ................

the 18z continues with an amplified pattern and e Europe is the beneficiary of the repeated cold surges (as well as the ne states). Looks quite a set pattern but would be quite odd this season for weeks and weeks of mobility to become a stagnant trough followed by an endless block?

[kumquat]

Maybe I just used semantics and picked on your use of the word "appropriate". Perhaps it would be appropriate to have raging Easterlies and tons of snow and another Little Ice Age.

[kumquat]

Jeez - when you put but like that, i think I'm going to become a mildie ................

 

Oh no! You're our best chance of tracking the anomalies.