Southeast England & East Anglia - Weather Chat >> 1st March Onwards

[Captain Shortwave]

This afternoon's GFS 12z showing a 30% chance of a storm for the very SE of our patch on Wed afternoon. But for Thurs afternoon is showing a much wider risk, embracing virtually the whole of our Region. I quite fancy a rumble or two!

 

Wed 15.00 GFS 12z ukstormrisk for Wed29April15.png Thurs 15.00 GFS 12z ukstormrisk for Thu30April15.png

Indeed looking much better for Thursday as we don't have a surface ridge suppressing convection over the south of the UK.

Big uncertainty still over the progress of the next Atlantic system as we go into the bank holiday weekend. The GFS pushes the front through Saturday night, but the UKMO seems to struggle to get that front going. The models are struggling with northern blocking still present and also the first heatwave kicking off over southern/central Europe.

[lassie23]

You seem to have lost the ability to use PM's again

You will have to use the force to contact me instead. Failing that, there is always telepathy Nice day today, the breeze was a bit icy though. The cat is loving this cool weather, she is far too thick furred for heat.

[Blessed Weather]

Here comes the narrow band of rain to dampen our spirits later this morning. Mrs Blessed happy though - saves nagging me to water the flower beds that have just been planted! And from the forecasts, I don't think watering the garden will be necessary over the coming days!

 

Radar at 07.30

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Here comes the narrow band of rain to dampen our spirits later this morning. Mrs Blessed happy though - saves nagging me to water the flower beds that have just been planted! And from the forecasts, I don't think watering the garden will be necessary over the coming days!

 

Radar at 07.30 Rainfall Radar 07.30 Wed29April15.jpg

 

This afternoons shower risk is gone.. And tomorrow looks poor to. High res models say yes to showers but scattered and very limited instability 

 

 

 

 

 

Almost identical 

Edited April 29, 2015 by Surrey

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Watch the rapid development of that front edge on the next band.. 

[Captain Shortwave]

Quite a potent spell of rain earlier. I was up in Chatteris whilst my girlfriend was looking around a school. She got soaked on the way out.

Decent afternoon again with sunny spells and a gentle breeze - temperature is around 12C.

[Blessed Weather]

This afternoons shower risk is gone.. And tomorrow looks poor to. High res models say yes to showers but scattered and very limited instability 

 

 

Yes Surrey. Shame as I was hoping for a few claps and flashes from an early season thunderstorm! Good old GFS still thinks there's a chance, but the Euro4 high res says no, with the action out in the North Sea and missing us. My money is on the Euro4. We'll see.

 

GFS Thurs 15.00 18.00 Euro4 15.00

 

Today's rain band produced 2.7mm of rain here in Hadleigh, mostly during a short spell of heavier rain.

[Daniel*]

If GFS 12z is anything to go by Summer will make its prescience known. Mid 20's probable.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

If GFS 12z is anything to go by Summer will make its prescience known. Mid 20's probable.

image.jpgimage.jpg

This makes me smile

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

First bit of distant storm porn on the 12z!

Good to see!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Interestingly the EURO4 has nothing for this afternoon..

 

But thats not the case on the NETWx

 

 

 

 

 

If anything sparks of then it looks to be South London along the South coast into Kent.. Risk 20%

Edited April 30, 2015 by Surrey

[NO LONGER POSTING]

http://www.estofex.org/

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

 

Here is my risk map for today purple lines current convergence areas moving south south east through the day

[Captain Shortwave]

Fine day so far, clouding building up now. The big question is whether we will get anything from this.

The temperature is already around 13C.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Fine day so far, clouding building up now. The big question is whether we will get anything from this.

The temperature is already around 13C.

This is good cos I'm in central London and next job is out Sutton way this avo :-)

Might hang about after that, find a decent vantage point and see what happens...

[lassie23]

Where have all the storms gone? Maybe they are over Lincolnshire like usual   Sunny  and warmish here .

[NO LONGER POSTING]

First strikes just of the coast of Norwich

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Looks to me like today didn't go with s bang because pressure is a lot higher than forecast, look at the sat and the way the incoming front is being forced south, now kook at southern England, everything hitting it cloud shower wise is killed

[Blessed Weather]

Rainfall radar shows a line of showers moving south through East Anglia this afternoon. There was a short, sharp shower here in Hadleigh at 16.15.

 

Rainfall radar for 14.45

 

Shower approaching Hadleigh at 16.15

 

Euro4 run from this morning didn't show shower activity for 15.00 today  

[Blessed Weather]

Overnight low of exactly 0.0c overnight. Not much in the way of frost though; humidity showing as 65%.

The clear blue sky at 06.30 has just turned hazy as high cloud has moved in. Won't be too bad a day if it stays like this.

[Captain Shortwave]

Well yesterday ended up bone dry, a high of 15C with good sunny spells throughout.

A low of 2C here last night (well Writtle), hazy sunshine to start today, it should remain fine and dry, though an easterly wind will make conditions feel cooler.

 

There is the potential of something interesting moving up from France/Biscay on Tuesday, but uncertainty on the track at the moment.

Edited May 1, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Blessed Weather]

 

There is the potential of something interesting moving up from France/Biscay on Tuesday, but uncertainty on the track at the moment.

 

The GFS 06z run earlier today had our region under a rainfall deluge for Tues, borne on a warm plume coming up from France. This evening's runs seem to be trending that the warmest and wettest weather will skim past to our East (over the North Sea). Still time for lots of twists and turns on this development though! 

 

We can't compare like with like charts due to the lack of timing detail on ECM, but GFS suggesting the early hours of Tues morning offers the best chance of heavy rain clipping us:

 

ECM Tues 12.00 GFS 03.00 GFS rainfall

 

Meanwhile for the Bank Holiday weekend, overnight Saturday into Sunday looks like being a very wet spell. Hopefully clearing through by the afternoon though.

 

Euro4 06.00 12.00

[Blessed Weather]

Overnight low of -0.4c here, with a slightly more noticeable frost. My bird table with a thin layer of ice. Whilst I love the cold in the winter, I want summer now. I'm hoping that's the last air frost (indeed, any frost) until next October.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Overnight low of -0.4c here, with a slightly more noticeable frost. My bird table with a thin layer of ice. Whilst I love the cold in the winter, I want summer now. I'm hoping that's the last air frost (indeed, any frost) until next October.

Sure your weren't dreaming? It's was pleasantly mild last night here in Surrey, the cloud also made it warmer

[Captain Shortwave]

Sure your weren't dreaming? It's was pleasantly mild last night here in Surrey, the cloud also made it warmer

Actually Writtle recorded a low of -0.6C last night, though the temperatures did pick up a bit in the early hours as cloud moved in. It was certainly cold when I got back from work last night at 11pm.

 

Disappointing model output this morning if I am honest, the models agree on a wedge of heights developing over the southern tip of Greenland which then makes build heights over Europe and more importantly the UK a real hassle. Tuesday still looks very wet.