Southeast England & East Anglia - Weather Chat >> 1st March Onwards

[Mark wheeler]

So not the greatest of days today weather wise. We did indeed see a second band of rain come through which was quite a thin line throughout the region. It was my little girls 3rd birthday party today and decided a month ago after great debate too have it in a hall. So in a funny way I'm happy it was not great as Paying money for a hall just for the sun to shine all day would have been painful . Let's hope the coming few weeks brings warm sunshine to us all and maybe a few thunderstorms, although my little one is not a fan of them at the moment after a strike the other days

Edited June 1, 2015 by Mark wheeler

[Captain Shortwave]

Dry and bright start here, lets forget about the mediocrity that was May and hope for a better month.

Okay not a great start, probably a high of 14-17C which is below par for the time of year. At least it should stay dry and fairly bright until the evening.

[stainesbloke]

It's freezing lol! Well, 9C anyway, brrrr. Looks like a vile 2 days then models have slightly increased the chances of warmth/storms later this week...may that trend continue!

[Blessed Weather]

The models are really struggling to be consistent with the upcoming 'heatwave' (LOL!). Take a look at the charts for mid-day Monday 8th June. A cool NW'ly from GFS, or a lovely warm SE'ly from ECM??

 

GFS    ECM 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

It's freezing lol! Well, 9C anyway, brrrr. Looks like a vile 2 days then models have slightly increased the chances of warmth/storms later this week...may that trend continue!

 

Indeed, end of the week could go with a bang.. a proper bang.

[stainesbloke]

Indeed, end of the week could go with a bang.. a proper bang.

As is often the case with severe weather, we need to get this storm out of the way first before details firm up for later this week. Could be some upgrades for Fri? Would be nice! Not a very inspiring GFS run tho for next week/beyond. Just booked a week in Spain for the end of the month. Had enough of cold and wind!

[dallas]

They have extended the warning area http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&regionName=se

[Captain Shortwave]

I could almost describe the conditions out there as cold. 

There have been some showers on and off this afternoon. A high of just 15C.

[Sussex Jules]

 

Errr!!!!

[alexisj9]

Been a nice day here today, quite warm compared to yesterday which felt freezing. Clouded over in the last couple of hours. 

 

Watched the meridian weather and they had thunder clouds in the forecast for Friday, Fingers well and truly crossed.

[Blessed Weather]

Rain.png

 

Errr!!!!

 

There's something wrong with those rainfall figures SJ! No way will you see 50+mm of rain in Hailsham tomorrow! I reckon 5mm will be closer the mark.

I've just called up the chart for my postcode and it's the other extreme. It's showing no rain at all after 04.00 tomorrow morning! (Not the forecast I've just seen on the telly).

[Sussex Jules]

There's something wrong with those rainfall figures SJ! No way will you see 50+mm of rain in Hailsham tomorrow! I reckon 5mm will be closer the mark.

I've just called up the chart for my postcode and it's the other extreme. It's showing no rain at all after 04.00 tomorrow morning! (Not the forecast I've just seen on the telly).

Hmmm that's accumulated precipitation up till about 1700 tomorrow. Hailsham is just inland from Beachy Head and inside that heavy bit. Big differences between NMM and EURO4.

[tinybill]

looking a  bit wild to-night  just made sure things not going to fly off in summer!!!

[Blessed Weather]

Hmmm that's accumulated precipitation up till about 1700 tomorrow. Hailsham is just inland from Beachy Head and inside that heavy bit. Big differences between NMM and EURO4.

 

Yes, a surprising difference between the Euro4 and NMM. I have to side with the Euro4 on this one though. Here's the Euro4 'Accumulated Rainfall' chart for the period from now until 12.00 Wed 3rd June and it shows 3mm for your patch. For comparison, here's what Metcheck suggest for you from this evening through to mid-night tomorrow and the accumulated total is 5.5mm. (Metcheck shows no rain for you on Weds).

 

Euro4    Metcheck 

[Sussex Jules]

Yes, a surprising difference between the Euro4 and NMM. I have to side with the Euro4 on this one though. Here's the Euro4 'Accumulated Rainfall' chart for the period from now until 12.00 Wed 3rd June and it shows 3mm for your patch. For comparison, here's what Metcheck suggest for you from this evening through to mid-night tomorrow and the accumulated total is 5.5mm. (Metcheck shows no rain for you on Weds).

 

Euro4  Euro4 Accum Precip 01 to 03June 12.00.gif  Metcheck  Hailsham Rainfall 01 to 02 June.jpg

Lol I stopped using Metcheck when they forecast temps in the teens and snow!

[Daniel*]

looking a  bit wild to-night  just made sure things not going to fly off in summer!!!

It does thankfully the most tightest isobars = worst of the winds coinciding in early hours nothing destructive gusting to 40-50 mph at most. It is fairly uncommon to get these Atlantic depressions in June.

^ Frontal rain just lapping to the east of me a whole lot of moisture evident.

[Bogman]

Is it October already. Again?

[stainesbloke]

Is it October already. Again?

Lol, my birthday month, at this rate I'm ageing very quickly....

[Blessed Weather]

Storm damage report from Hadleigh. Hollyhock down!

 

Well that was a windy night! Lots of noise as mine and neighbours garden contents banged around! The overnight rainfall was negligible, damping the ground but not registering on the rainfall gauge. Looks like a morning with spots in the wind, but that's all. Temp currently 14.2C.

[Dami]

the wind blew a small pot in the garden over, left the plant and the pot was by the gate.It is bubs little garden project so it i braved the (light) rain and grabbed her pots which are now in the kitchen.

 

I actually found the wind last night quite relaxing, had the best nights sleep for a while. It's windy here 90% of the time anyway

[Blessed Weather]

 

Well that's this weekend's 'heatwave' disappearing! Just watched the Look East forecast and we don't even make it above 20C on Friday or Saturday.

 

 

But in compensation the thunderstorm risk for Friday afternoon looks very interesting! A Lifted Index between -2 and -6 is "unstable, thunderstorms likely".

 

CAPE & LI    % Storm Risk 

 

EDIT: Not that Look East support the idea of any storm risk. Not a drop of rain on their charts!

Edited June 2, 2015 by Blessed Weather

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Puff of smoke.png

 

Well that's this weekend's 'heatwave' disappearing! Just watched the Look East forecast and we don't even make it above 20C on Friday or Saturday.

 

20150602_083010(0)_resized.jpg

 

But in compensation the thunderstorm risk for Friday afternoon looks very interesting! A Lifted Index between -2 and -6 is "unstable, thunderstorms likely".

 

CAPE & LI  GFS capeli 05June 15.00.png  % Storm Risk  GFS stormrisk 05June 15.00.png

 

EDIT: Not that Look East support the idea of any storm risk. Not a drop of rain on their charts!

 

Still 3 days away yet don't panic I like the look of the charts this morning well for us anyway.. Shows storms just piling into the South east

[Captain Shortwave]

The models still just showing some very warm weather in this region (GFS goes for 27C).

Beyond that, conditions just look like a drier version of May with heights to the west, if the winds remain west of north then conditions should be okay.

 

As for today, well its damp and windy.

[stainesbloke]

Another vile November-like morning with howling winds continuing and heavy bouts of drizzle. Can't even rain properly! Has warmed up a bit at least, currently 15C.

[Dami]

Just as normal it starts to rain just as we head off for the school run and after the window cleaner comes, school is late back from lunch so the drizzle turns heavy enough to find cover, and as i come home the rain drops get heavier and i get soaked as well as blown down the road.

 

Hi ho silver and all that.