Southeast England & East Anglia - Weather Chat >> 1st March Onwards

[stainesbloke]

What a beauty of a run from GFS 12z approaching 86 degrees Fahrenheit along with the incredible CAPE values I'm sure it would be a conducive environment for supercell(s).

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Yes, if those charts come off we'd see some very interesting weather. As it's still too far away I'm trying not to get excited. Anything would be better than May's weather though, I just want to be outside and be warm!

[Captain Shortwave]

Yes, if those charts come off we'd see some very interesting weather. As it's still too far away I'm trying not to get excited. Anything would be better than May's weather though, I just want to be outside and be warm!

We seem to be heading the right way, I think the trend to build pressure from the middle of next week is becoming pretty solid. The plume following it should verify in some form, us being the safest being in the south east.

The 12z GFS has been well and truly subverted by the ECM operational which is showing 30C (even more impressive considering the model is likely under-cooking the temperatures) and the 18z GFS run which makes last Julys plume event look like a major disappointment.

Fingers crossed that we get something special during the first half of June.

[stainesbloke]

We seem to be heading the right way, I think the trend to build pressure from the middle of next week is becoming pretty solid. The plume following it should verify in some form, us being the safest being in the south east.

The 12z GFS has been well and truly subverted by the ECM operational which is showing 30C (even more impressive considering the model is likely under-cooking the temperatures) and the 18z GFS run which makes last Julys plume event look like a major disappointment.

Fingers crossed that we get something special during the first half of June.

What makes these runs seem all the more exciting and special is partly due to decent plume events being virtually non-existent during the last 10-15 years. Before that, they were more common and most summers experienced some thundery activity. June plumes can be some of the best as day length is long and solar intensity high...get those temps up to 90F and could get very interesting!! Keeping everything crossed. Need some warmth.

[Captain Shortwave]

Bright but cool start to the day. Today definitely looks the better of the days this weekend with tomorrow looking rather wet.

[Methuselah]

We could even end up with 28C, in The Triangle!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Tomorrow day time actualy looks dry now... Rain moves through in early hours before clearing away mid morning.. Result

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Tomorrow day time actualy looks dry now... Rain moves through in early hours before clearing away mid morning.. Result

 

not convinced, bbc/FAX clearly shows a double cold front, actually still west of your location at midday, I'm expecting a wet one here, worst of the rain around midday

[Bogman]

not convinced, bbc/FAX clearly shows a double cold front, actually still west of your location at midday, I'm expecting a wet one here, worst of the rain around midday

Yeah, rain over night clearing away then another pulse late morning.

Non result.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Yeah, rain over night clearing away then another pulse late morning.

Non result.

Can't see it?

[Blessed Weather]

I have to agree with Surrey. Going by the Euro4 model the rain looks like it has cleared through by about 10.00 in the morning. No sign of any further rain after that.

 

03.00 06.00 09.00

12.00

 

Very poor forecasting from the 'professionals' if this is correct. This morning's forecasts on the telly were all saying rain for most of Sunday.

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I have to agree with Surrey. Going by the Euro4 model the rain looks like it has cleared through by about 10.00 in the morning. No sign of any further rain after that.

 

03.00 Euro4 31May 03.00.gif 06.00 Euro4 31May 06.00.gif 09.00 Euro4 31May 09.00.gif

12.00 Euro4 31May 12.00.gif

 

Very poor forecasting from the 'professionals' if this is correct. This morning's forecasts on the telly were all saying rain for most of Sunday.

 

homer-doh.gif

 

hope it is poor forecasting from the pros, cos bbc/meto FAX still going for rain most of the day

[Blessed Weather]

Well knock me down with a feather!!! First time I've seen the telly since this morning and, blow me, just watched the MetO forecast broadcast at 20.00 and it could be that it's the Euro4 that's the complete and utter DOH!!! Fascinating! MetO do indeed say another pulse of rain around mid-day. We'll see tomorrow.

 

09.00 13.00 16.00

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

BBC weather forecast is as good as my cat trying to predict it

[Blessed Weather]

BBC weather forecast is as good as my cat trying to predict it

 

I bet your cat's name is Michael Fish! "Let me assure you there's no hurricane expected....".

 

But seriously, the Euro4 model is a Met Office model, so I'm amazed their model can show NO second pulse of rain, whilst the Met Office rep on the BBC can stand there and show charts that say's there will be!!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I bet your cat's name is Michael Fish! "Let me assure you there's no hurricane expected....".

 

But seriously, the Euro4 model is a Met Office model, so I'm amazed their model can show NO second pulse of rain, whilst the Met Office rep on the BBC can stand there and show charts that say's there will be!!

Mike purr actually and indeed confusing rain band does not even look that bad currently

[Blessed Weather]

Mike purr actually and indeed confusing rain band does not even look that bad currently

 

You're right! That incoming band of rain is looking pretty unimpressive for the much of the southern half of the UK! Are we going from "rain all day" to just a few patchy outbreaks?? Oh well, as I said above, we'll see tomorrow what actually happens. There may be some egg rightly aimed at one face or another!!

 

Rainfall radar tonight 21.30 

[Captain Shortwave]

Cloudy and damp start here. It looks like the warmer and drier spell later next week is now slowly turning to dust. A real shame to be honest.

[Rain123]

I am currently looking for my binoculars for Friday/Saturday (apparently not Sunday or Monday according to the Storm & Convective thread). Tut, can't find them...

[Blessed Weather]

Looking like a messy day ahead. Rainfall Radar at 09.00 this morning shows several bands of light showers that will move east during the day. So just when you might think it's cleared up, another short spell of showers may not be too far away.

 

Euro4 still showing it basically clear on this morning's run, so I'm concluding the Euro4 model is not very good at showing light showers on it's output?

 

Radar   Euro4 12.00 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Can anyone explain why it was raining steadily here a few minutes ago, yet NW radar showed us in quite a sizable gap between these showery pulses?      

[Blessed Weather]

Can anyone explain why it was raining steadily here a few minutes ago, yet NW radar showed us in quite a sizable gap between these showery pulses?    

 

The only thing I can think of is the time lag between you experiencing the shower and the 'latest' radar output showing it (as the radar output, at best, only gets to within around 15 minutes of 'now')? If you can remember the exact time of the shower, go on the radar now and see if it was there at that time.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Cloud breaking up temp going up

[Bogman]

Raining here. Temp going down.

[stainesbloke]

Nice to get some rain earlier, was one of those damp but calm and quite warm mornings I actually like occasionally. However, all ruined by yet another howling wind, suddenly springing up at lunchtime, messing up my Sky signal.

Edited May 31, 2015 by stainesbloke

[Blessed Weather]

So what do you do on a very disappointing Sunday afternoon on the last day of May? Well in my case I headed off to the pub and had a great couple of hours with some mates. And we basked in warmth - well OK, it was from the pub woodburner!!

Ridiculous - woodburner going on the last day of May!!! Outside temps around 14C.

 

 

P.S. My mates were too shy to appear in the photo. Lucky you!