Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2015.

[cheese]

Summer, to me, is about getting outside and enjoying life - being able to leave the house in a shirt and shorts, enjoying an evening drink on the terrace, having a BBQ, leaving the windows open, relaxing in the sun with friends. The occasional thunderstorm after a warm day is just the icing on the cake.

 

Sure, by September, the general sense of impending doom as autumn draws ever closer, makes it very different to July, but as long as the weather is nice, that's the most important thing, and everything is still green by that point, so it's not all bad.

 

As the old saying goes - beggars can't be choosers. We'll get what we're given!

Edited June 2, 2015 by cheese

[Essan]

Agree completely. Think due to a chilly Spring that got stuck in March, having cold continuing into Summer proper is all the more obvious and unwelcome. Still, only on day 3 of summer, we will get some warmth at some point.

We have had a mild spring .....

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

This is a defining year for me.....this year marks the start of next step change down. 

 

BFTP

[Essan]

Summer, to me, is about getting outside and enjoying life - being able to leave the house in a shirt and shorts, enjoying an evening drink on the terrace, having a BBQ, leaving the windows open, relaxing in the sun with friends. The occasional thunderstorm after a warm day is just the icing on the cake.

Which for me, not having cold blood, means temps no higher than the low 20s .....   which is warm enough for anyone not born in the Jurassic to enjoy being outside.

Right now I have my back door wide open and I am only wearing a t-shirt, because it is a mild night ......  

[Polar Maritime]

This is a defining year for me.....this year marks the start of next step change down. 

 

BFTP

 

What's meant by that Fred?

Edited June 2, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Costa Del Fal]

Looks like high pressure just refuses to get East of the UK. Messy picture, greenland heights...all rather 2007-12 esque sadly.

[cheese]

Which for me, not having cold blood, means temps no higher than the low 20s .....   which is warm enough for anyone not born in the Jurassic to enjoy being outside.

Right now I have my back door wide open and I am only wearing a t-shirt, because it is a mild night ......  

It certainly is - and my ideal climate would have summers exactly like that. The only problem with temperatures in the low 20s, in this climate anyway, is that it cools down too quickly at night, which makes it difficult to enjoy evening activities. That's why I do appreciate hot weather occasionally - I just love balmy evenings, strolling around the city centre in a T-shirt, even when the sun has gone down. If a day here has a high of 21C, I will probably need a jacket later, even before the sun has gone down, because it starts feeling chilly, but more so in the shade.

 

Mild at night? It fell to 4C here - on the first day of summer. Doesn't feel 'mild' to me! Certainly no chance of me having the doors open in this weather - but far be it from me to argue that you do otherwise. Whatever floats your boat.

Edited June 2, 2015 by cheese

[Evening thunder]

The near continent will cool off quickly too looking at the charts, the heat moving to E Europe but that vanishing too next week. A vile 06z GFS run, yes dry next week but cold yet again then troughing setting up yet again over W Europe. Nasty if it comes off. Though the ECM giving a very different picture with another hot plume modelled for 11-12th...as the models are all over the place, gives me some hope that we'll see a warm up soon.

Yeah GFS shows the cool air pushing down into France more, I just saw the ECM this morning where the dividing line was literally the English Channel lol, but of course the warmth in FI has gone now but knew not to trust it. Hopefully things will fall more in our favour at some point, probably saving it for when I'm out the country 10th-18th June lol

 

yes, the uppers suggest next weeks expected high to be cool, but its JUNE! the sun is high and very strong in the sky. the air sourced from a more cool northerly latitude will be clear and fresh (assuming we dont get north sea stratus), in the clear air it will feel superb in the sun!  heat without humidity suits most.

 

Yeah I guess but cool/cold uppers is what we've had for over a month and is crap compared to the interest of what was shown. The GFS in particular shows sub-zero uppers, in June, under high pressure.. that's pretty poor if even the settled spells are cool like that. Sure it may feel reasonably pleasant mid- afternoon in strong sun if winds are light and cloud doesn't bubble up/spread out, and it will look good too, However it's not warmth like my post was on about and I also have an interest in weather, someone change the record please. I thought I remembered you preferring warmth in summer?

 

In fact the GFS could give at least ground frosts here, no thanks. 

The GFS is quite poor with no shorts/t-shirt or comfortable beach weather at all really and continual cool shots. ECM aint much better. Pretty amazing if that is the outcome from all the models showing plumes, 15+ uppers and the MetO singing for a warm June.

 

I guess I'm just feeling really underwhelmed with it all.. 

[Captain Shortwave]

I'm just glad I have a 2 week holiday in Florida during the middle of the summer. The phrase "getting blood from a stone" comes to mind.

Next week looks pretty grim down here, the potential for a lot of low cloud and a nagging north easterly wind which could get quite strong at times. Not great though I suspect the north and west of the UK could do okay from this set up.

 

80F still looks possible for Friday in the south east with the risk of some thunderstorms. But that is about it really.

Edited June 2, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

This feels like the exact same as the failed beasterly that occurred in December 2012!

All models seemed firm on it and then with a flick of a switch, it all went to cack!

Shortwave drama to blame once again! Pesky little things that make a huge difference on these isles of ours.

[Cheshire Freeze]

This is a defining year for me.....this year marks the start of next step change down. 

 

BFTP

 

Things could turn quite dramatic weatherwise towards the end of this year and beyond given the strengthening nino and continuing and deepening solar slumber. I know exactly what you mean Fred....

 

I'm pretty certain a '62/'63 will be along within the next 10 years (i.e all 3 winter months sig below average); it's when not if IMO. Anyway that's for another thread.....

Edited June 2, 2015 by CreweCold

[stainesbloke]

Oh well, thankfully my job gets me out of this climate very regularly, a relief when it looks like weeks of cold grimness and where pretty much everywhere I fly to is warmer than London in summer. When you're at 35,000 feet, by day it's always sunny hehe...

Hopefully there'll be an improvement in chart output tomorrow, to lift our mood nicely.

[draztik]

And to think, I was the one accused of spreading pessimism. 

Majority of folk in here seem to be doing a pretty good job of that without little aid from me.

Met Office text forecast somewhat at odds with the big long range models at the moment. ECM Ext. & GEFS now projecting a near average/slightly below temp anom into mid term, with little suggestion of a warm up.

 

days 10 - 15 temp anom 18z GEFS

 

signalling a dry & cool period ahead.

[mushymanrob]

 

 

I'm pretty certain a '62/'63 will be along within the next 10 years (i.e all 3 winter months sig below average); it's when not if IMO. Anyway that's for another thread.....

 

... and i think we are long overdue for a long hot summer... its been 9 years now (the longest in my work history (self emp) ) since i lost much work through dried up grass.

[stainesbloke]

Next week looking fairly settled and dry across the UK. Will feel pleasant in any strong sunshine, especially in the W but cooling off rapidly in the evenings to give very chilly nights. From an IMBY perspective, the worry is for North Sea clag and infill to spoil what could be a pleasant if rather underwhelming week weather wise.

[Milhouse]

One of the worst sights for me during Summer is the green finger of doom.

 

[mushymanrob]

One of the worst sights for me during Summer is the green finger of doom.

 

 

... but at least its dry !

[mushymanrob]

just spent a few hours outside with my o/h and the dogs in my garden.... was splendid! the sun is very warm, the air fresh, the sky clear blue (in between the faur weather clouds). 

ok, not warm enough for the pool  or sitting out in an evening, but its a decent start to summer IF this 'cool' weather continues!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

One of the worst sights for me during Summer is the green finger of doom.

 

 

could be worse! could be low pressure and rain

[Mokidugway]

could be worse! could be low pressure and rain

I can think of a lot worse names ....

[Methuselah]

could be worse! could be low pressure and rain

Could be like 1995?

[Buzz]

I sometimes wonder why I bother to read the model output thread - it's the same year in year out (usually in Winter and Summer) with people falling into the same old trap of looking too far ahead for the weather that THEY want, then whining, arguing and bickering when the weather shown in the models for ten to fourteen days hence doesn't come to pass .....

 

No sooner to the (excellent) mods stamp out the nonsense, up pops a post showing a supposed heatwave two weeks away .......... <sigh>

 

It's such a pity as the model thread would be great without all of the hopecasting and the inevitable toys thrown out of prams.

Edited June 3, 2015 by Buzz

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I sometimes wonder why I bother to read the model output thread - it's the same year in year out (usually in Winter and Summer) with people falling into the same old trap of looking too far ahead for the weather that THEY want, then whining, arguing and bickering when the weather shown in the models for ten to fourteen days hence doesn't come to pass .....

 

No sooner to the (excellent) mods stamp out the nonsense, up pops a post showing a supposed heatwave two weeks away .......... <sigh>

 

It's such a pity as the model thread would be great without all of the hopecasting and the inevitable toys thrown out of prams.

 

toys out of prams though, is that not what makes it a bit more fun? although those sort of posts should not be in main model thread

Edited June 3, 2015 by Ilovethesnow

[Methuselah]

I sometimes wonder why I bother to read the model output thread - it's the same year in year out (usually in Winter and Summer) with people falling into the same old trap of looking too far ahead for the weather that THEY want, then whining, arguing and bickering when the weather shown in the models for ten to fourteen days hence doesn't come to pass .....

 

No sooner to the (excellent) mods stamp out the nonsense, up pops a post showing a supposed heatwave two weeks away .......... <sigh>

 

It's such a pity as the model thread would be great without all of the hopecasting and the inevitable toys thrown out of prams.

No,  Buzz - I don't know either. Why don't you just pees off?

[Scorcher]

Is the UK one of the only areas of the globe where high pressure regularly moves west?? It's infuriating and I haven't really seen it happen anywhere else. Almost like we are a magnet to winds from the north/northwest.