Scotland - Weather Chat

[Guest]

Try Highland weather, it shows loads of weather stations throughout the Highlands, Scotland, the UK and Europe.

http://www.highlandweather.info/Scotland/temp/

 

Thanks NR

 

The ECM has come around to the GFS way of thinking which will be hot IF it comes off:

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMCNA_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

This would help produce 850 temps similar to those posted above by Danny boy.

 

It may not last long but anything's better than this. Currently grey, feeling cool in the breeze, although the local weather station tells me it's 15ºC.

 

Edit: 12z GFS is going for a cracker next week, although there's a hint of it being a bit scraggy on the east coast with an easterly wind pegging back the temps.

Edited June 24, 2015 by CatchMyDrift

[NorthernRab]

Type in 'Charterhall' in the search bar and it comes up with long-term data.

June - 16.9c

Considerably down on me, perhaps due to lag effect of the sea

July - 19.5c

Snap

August - 19.4c

Up 0.3 on me.

 

Surprisingly the coastal weather station of Dalcross (Inverness airport) is only .5'C lower! Wouldn't have thought that. 

[SW Saltire]

I've looked through the GFS and ECM this morning, plus at the ECM-GFS-CMC 10 Day 500Mb Mean charts and there's nothing at all which says summer to me:

[url=http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMCNA_0z/hgtcomp.h%20ml]http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMCNA_0z/hgtcomp.html[/url

High pressure over Europe, lower pressure to the north and us stuck in limbo. Bleh. Europe set to bake in a Spanish plume by day ten according to the GFS, 850 temps of 20-24ºC across vast parts of the continent. Imagine if that was us...

Now I know this was posted 2 days ago...

But (and I know you had to eat all that humble pie for May) Catch, would you care to standby those comments now?

I realise at the time it looked mediocre for us (I actually thought some charts were ok but only for far SE or South of Scotland) but it just show's how things can change in a flash in computer model land.

Perhaps we should heed the wise words of Tamara et al rather than the suicide enducing, wild swings of emotion that are attached to posts suffering strongly from extreme over-reaction on the MOD thread.

Should pick up for you guys up north, keep the faith!

(Those on the East coast may struggle a little - those in the NE may not be able to contain their rage if it verifies as shown)

Surprisingly the coastal weather station of Dalcross (Inverness airport) is only .5'C lower! Wouldn't have thought that.

Summer time or year round?

Would be surprising in summer time. Year round it would surely benefit form milder winters...

Edited June 24, 2015 by SW Saltire

[Guest]

Surprisingly the coastal weather station of Dalcross (Inverness airport) is only .5'C lower! Wouldn't have thought that. 

 

Charterhall is about 15 miles from the sea, so not that far from the coast that it won't depress temps with an easterly breeze at any time of year.

 

If the 12z GFS comes off we'll not be caring about idle chat about averages One of the best runs for a while:

 

Starting from tomorrow the temp builds and builds. I really couldn't care less if it's raining at the same time, I want some heat!! Apologies for simply posting the temps charts for each day

 

[NorthernRab]

Would be surprising in summer time. Year round it would surely benefit form milder winters...

 

Summer time.

[NorthernRab]

Charterhall is about 15 miles from the sea, so not that far from the coast that it won't depress temps with an easterly breeze at any time of year.

 

If the 12z GFS comes off we'll not be caring about idle chat about averages One of the best runs for a while:

 

Starting from tomorrow the temp builds and builds. I really couldn't care less if it's raining at the same time, I want some heat!! Apologies for simply posting the temps charts for each day

 24th June GFS 12z +147hrs Max Temp.png24th June GFS 12z +171hrs Max Temp.png

 

Perfect transition from the current 12-16'C to that and from that to the heat of China for me!

Edited June 24, 2015 by NorthernRab

[Guest]

Now I know this was posted 2 days ago...

But (and I know you had to eat all that humble pie for May) Catch, would you care to standby those comments now?

I realise at the time it looked mediocre for us (I actually thought some charts were ok but only for far SE or South of Scotland) but it just show's how things can change in a flash in computer model land.

Perhaps we should heed the wise words of Tamara et al rather than the suicide enducing, wild swings of emotion that are attached to posts suffering strongly from extreme over-reaction on the MOD thread.

 

 

I'm saying nowt until we see what weather we end up with. I only said it how I saw it the other day (although the GFS 500mb Mean did hint at the current charts a couple of days ago, I just chose to ignore it). We all know from experience how these things pan out at times.

 

As for the wild swings, I don't think we're that bad for that in here, I'll be happy for the charts to come off but I'll not be that sad when/if they don't come off, "Bleh" is as bad as it gets

[SW Saltire]

I'm saying nowt until we see what weather we end up with. I only said it how I saw it the other day (although the GFS 500mb Mean did hint at the current charts a couple of days ago, I just chose to ignore it). We all know from experience how these things pan out at times.

 

As for the wild swings, I don't think we're that bad for that in here, I'll be happy for the charts to come off but I'll not be that sad when/if they don't come off, "Bleh" is as bad as it gets

I was only teasing of course....

Yes, obviously it has not happened yet.

No I was referring to the swings of the MOD, not in here.

Fingers crossed it verifies or an upgraded version does

[Hairy Celt]

11C, dull, breezy, all friggin day. AGAIN.  Jeez. Thank god tomorrow I escape.

[Guest]

I was only teasing of course....

Yes, obviously it has not happened yet.

No I was referring to the swings of the MOD, not in here.

Fingers crossed it verifies or an upgraded version does

 

I think that once you've lived in Scotland for a while you're far more used to being let down. Regardless of whether it's football, weather or referendum results we're all quite used to snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Something tells me I stole that line from Red Dwarf, I'm sure someone else on here can confirm my suspicions.

 

Imagine if it did upgrade...

[SW Saltire]

I think that once you've lived in Scotland for a while you're far more used to being let down. Regardless of whether it's football, weather or referendum results we're all quite used to snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Something tells me I stole that line from Red Dwarf, I'm sure someone else on here can confirm my suspicions.

 

Imagine if it did upgrade...

Well true. However, the ECM is fully inboard too.

So I don't foresee a major change just a slow shifty back to how it was a few days ago ie the heat misses to the east but still pleasant.

Anyway, I hope for far more.

I'd prefer longevity over shaft and intense. We need the rain though so maybe a plume with a return to warmer than average and wetter and then back to another plume would be ideal. Does look a possibility ie a reloading pattern.

Can't see us getting predicted 30+ but temperatures almost always upgrade nearer the time or even on the day.

May 2012 was only predicted to reach 25/26 and was consistently 27-29 over that short hot spell.

I'm sure we can get a few degrees on those values.

21 (on the GFS) really equals 23/24 etc.

Get the set up sorted and in July (statistically the hottest time of the year with real heat to the south) we'll be fine

[NUT]

Starting to feel just a bit humid oot there. Heard there's a warm up on the way............... Does look rather splendid for next week I admit

[Sunshineandshowers84]

Yes i see it's to get warmer but sadly these fronts will continue to come in so looks like our rain bands and showery conditions to continue..

[Sunshineandshowers84]

Heavy downpour suddenly appeared. According to the radar hardly any rain about..

[Richard Taylor]

Dull, cloudy, cheerless. If I didn't know better, it's Groundhog Day!!

 

But I hear things might be imporving soon....................maybe.

[NUT]

Flip around this morning now looks like it still will be as hot as hell next week but come friday inparticulair it starts to break down.................(No doubt it will all change again)

[NorthernRab]

Sun is beginning to break through the clouds here, nice and bright at 14'C - it begins!

[DR(S)NO]

Hmm....I see some on the model thread are going a bit crazy on the possible record breaking heat for next week.

I guess for many of us we like to see the extremes in weather ,as that's the pay off for much of the crap we endure for the majority of the year!!

Next week for heat and storm lovers "may " end up as enticing as Dec 2010 was for the cold lovers.

However,I'm afraid im not particularly embracing the thought of temps in the mid 30s( I know that's unlikely here) or the humidity or the potential for severe storms. I just saw a chart that had 26c for the SE at 2am !!!!!!

My concern comes from the health impacts for some folk both young and old .....and also the severe flooding that comes from flas flooding and the impact that has .....I'd be more than happy for a spell of nice summer weather ,say early to mid 20s..especially after this summer so far.

So ,for me, the SE can keep what's shown for next week...much as it's exciting to see.

DR (S) NO

[Northernlights]

First really dull  humid  thundery feeling afternoon of the summer at 17c. Very dark clouds to the SW  bearing down on us so rain not far away.Should catch up with a bit of growth next week.

Edited June 25, 2015 by Northernlights

[skifreak]

Costa del Moray Firth to start July, Southerly or SE winds coming over the Cairngorms and Munro Level temperatures breaching the 20c mark if we get 850hpa temps of 17-18c. The latest gfs could possibly see the all time Scottish temperature record fall somewhere along the Moray Coast on 2-4th July?

[NorthernRab]

^ I was thinking that, we're in for a serious foehn effect!

[Hawesy]

Yes, next week looks interesting. If you like haar. ;-)

A bit early to be concerned about specifics but for here I would like to see the high sink south and winds to stay in the SW. Others may disagree of course!

Certainly some warmth and sunshine would be very welcome!

[SW Saltire]

Reached 17.1c before the rain moved in. Quite a muggy day.

Much needed rain as ground was getting hard. Hopefully get some more before the heat hits.

The GFS 12z may have downgraded a little but the ECM is far far better.

I would rarely back against the ECM at day 6 being totally wrong. This may be a rather brief affair (plumes are usually unsustainable anyway) 24-48 hours but I'm hoping it may reload as shown on the GFS.

A weak Atlantic, high(ish) pressure over Scandinavia and low pressure down in the bay of biscay will always keep the dice in our favour.

I note the ECM predicts 850s of 17c or even warmer in some parts for next Wednesday. What surface conditions could be expected if that verified? I doubt it would be a particularly sunny high but surely 30c must be pushed?

I get what you are saying Dr Snow but we can't change the weather.... So not guilt here. Of course I'll phone my nana and check if she is ok etc.

However, i won't feel guilty if we reach 35c (unlikely), I'm going to enjoy it.

Same with December 2010, if you see people in trouble you help out but it isn't wrong to want it to get even colder or snowier in my opinion.

Edited June 25, 2015 by SW Saltire

[NorthernRab]

Max temp of 17.6'C here today so creeping up day in day! Much cooler after this evening's rain at 12.4'C.

Late afternoon / evening tomorrow is looking lovely!

[Guest]

I get what you are saying Dr Snow but we can't change the weather.... So not guilt here. Of course I'll phone my nana and check if she is ok etc.

However, i won't feel guilty if we reach 35c (unlikely), I'm going to enjoy it.

Same with December 2010, if you see people in trouble you help out but it isn't wrong to want it to get even colder or snowier in my opinion.

 

I know that severe heat or cold does cause a problem for the older population or the infirm, but if the effect is that strong then surely countries which experience hot summers and cold winters would have severely impacted life expectancies?  

 

I agree with Dr S thought that I would quite like to see weeks on end in summer of about 23ºC with loads of sunshine, but that's never going to happen in Scotland.