Model output discussion - 16th Nov onwards

[Spah1]

Followed a link on here last night and read the model discussion thread leading up to 2009. Got to Dec 14th post 400 then it stopped. Can anyone post a link to the whole of Dec pls.

[SLEETY]

Again, not a zonal fest....

If on a mobile phone, turn to see picture properly if you have clicked on the image.

nothing cold in any or those 

[Cheshire Freeze]

nothing cold in any or those 

 

Not at face value, no. However, look at some of the preceding charts for some of the coldest winters- IMO you can't really get a more obvious precursor to winter potential than we've seen flashing in the modelling over the past 2 weeks. Just my two penneths worth!

 

I've had PMs with other forum members (some respected members at that) who also agree with this general sentiment. I suspect some can't see the wood for the trees- which is no sleight at all; it's a learning curve for all of us.

Edited November 23, 2015 by CreweCold

[Paul]

Not at face value, no. However, look at some of the preceding charts for some of the coldest winters- IMO you can't really get a more obvious precursor to winter potential than we've seen flashing in the modelling over the past 2 weeks. Just my two penneths worth!

 

Equally a lot of the charts we're seeing now / of late are obvious precursors to milder/wetter spells of weather,  more-so than anything else anything else really, even if there is the odd, slightly more tenuous link to colder conditions. I'm only talking in the relatively short term of course, the winter as a whole is another thing and time will tell on that front!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Equally a lot of the charts we're seeing now / of late are obvious precursors to milder/wetter spells of weather,  more-so than anything else anything else really, even if there is the odd, slightly more tenuous link to colder conditions. I'm only talking in the relatively short term of course, the winter as a whole is another thing and time will tell on that front!

 

Equally valid point Paul. However, I think there's a lot to be positive about right now from where I'm sitting. It's a sit back and wait approach from me from here on in and if the potential isn't ultimately realised then so be it! That's weather for you!

Edited November 23, 2015 by CreweCold

[Paul]

Nick's latest synoptic outlook - looking toward the end of Autumn and into Winter. 

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=7008;sess=

 

Well worth a read

[Cloud 10]

The thing that strikes me about the long range ensemble means is the abundance of above normal heights across the Northern hemisphere which seems to be suggesting a very dis-organised Polar vortex.

 

GEFS..  GEM..

[SMU]

Nothing to get to excited about at the moment- the early promise from the models supporting the reload has faded -

We now find ourselves in a mobile pattern alternating between mild & cold so pretty standard fair with some snow for the scottish hills -

Next shot for cold ( proper cold ) would be away into day 12-14 with the possible development of the arctic high...

So ive earmarked around the 3rd -5th dec....

A waiting game..

[phil nw.]

A westerly type of setup with a mix of airmasses seems the outlook as Steve M has indicated above.

Whilst no great shakes for an early Winter blast it's certainly not all mild.

In fact our next shot of colder air from the north west is due Friday this week.

 

not as dramatic as last weekend's Arctic showing but cold enough to see temperatures below normal with hill snow up north again.

 

The GEFs 850's show the mixed pattern going forward

 

The overall NH pattern still shows sporadic wave action so whilst that is modeled there are hopes for more underlations in the jet stream in future runs-and the Euro high get's it's marching orders before it get's it's feet under the table!

Edited November 23, 2015 by phil nw.

[knocker]

I suspect the main concern in the near future is whether one of these very active Atlantic depressions tracks slightly south and brings some destructive winds to the north of Scotland. This one for example is modeled to track east 945mb during the following twelve hours. The winds in the southern quadrant are gusting in excess of 80kts and just north of Scotland. Keep up the good work Azores HP and resist any southern movement of the track.

 

 

[MPG]

Some horror show charts on offer, if we look back to winter 1997/98 which was the last El Nino year with comparable strength, I'm not sure but could this be a typical El Nino type pattern emerging?

Completely different to 97/98. A modoki El nino is emerging.

[karyo]

Completely different to 97/98. A modoki El nino is emerging.

Check the latest ENSO update. Unfortunately, the cooling in East Equatorial Pacific has stalled.

[MPG]

Check the latest ENSO update. Unfortunately, the cooling in East Equatorial Pacific has stalled.

Maybe, but compared to 97/98 the temperature in the east equortical is significantly cooler. Therefore comparisons to 97/98 need to be cautioned.

Edited November 23, 2015 by MPG

[phil nw.]

Can we keep the ENSO discussions to the relevant thread please chaps.

Ta.

[Yarmy]

Completely different to 97/98. A modoki El nino is emerging.

 

Seen this a few times and I have a genuine question: is there a correlation between a Modoki El Nino and greenland blocking or is it based on one example in 2009? 2009 was also in the midst of a deep solar minimum and had an eQBO.

 

Edit: Oops, sorry mods. Move as necessary.

Edited November 23, 2015 by Yarmy

[Summer Sun]

The latest verification stats provided by Gibby for ECM, UKMO and GFS shows ECM remaining in the lead

 

At 24 hours ECM and UKMO ahead of GFS at 99.6 pts to 99.4 pts.  

 

At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.4 pts to UKMO's 96.8 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts.

 

At 5 days ECM leads with 89.1 pts to UKMO at 87.1 pts then GFS at 85.5 pts.

 

Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 62.5 pts over GFS's 55.7 pts.

 

Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 40.5 pts to 34.1 pts.

 

Full model analysis and more from Gibby can be found here

[Liam J]

Completely different to 97/98. A modoki El nino is emerging.

There are some differences, completely different? I don't think so myself. 

 

 

 

No significant cooling for Nino 1+2, and after a slight fall it's gone upwards again (by small margin) but seems cooling has halted over Eastern Pacific for the time being.  

 

 

[chionomaniac]

Completely different to 97/98. A modoki El nino is emerging.

I agree with Phil that this any El Nino discussion should be kept in the relevent thread, but I don't think that I can let this statement go unchallenged. This El Nino cannot be be classified as a Modoki EN. It is basin wide with the East Pacific 1-2 region currently 2.1ºC above average! The central Pacific regions are warmer still but in no way can we say that a modoki is emerging. #lolmodoki has not been trending on twitter for nothing.

[nick sussex]

Seen this a few times and I have a genuine question: is there a correlation between a Modoki El Nino and greenland blocking or is it based on one example in 2009? 2009 was also in the midst of a deep solar minimum and had an eQBO.

 

Edit: Oops, sorry mods. Move as necessary.

Seeing as its relatively quiet , yes apparently in the Modoki El Nino theres a better chance of Greenland blocking than in a normal El Nino.

 

There are quite a few years over the last two decades that qualify for the Modoki but the difficulty is finding the clear correlation because you have to also factor in other drivers, it could be Modoki+ something else, some Modoki years may have not shown a greater incidence of Greenland blocking.

 

That's always the problem with trying to find clear correlations because there are just so many variables at play.

 

This link is very good, one of the best I've found, I think the crucial point is that the Modoki signature is central Pacific and as you can see from Sub Zero's post that's not the current case.

 

https://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2010/05/01/typical-average-el-nino-traditional-el-nino-and-el-nino-modoki-events/

Edited November 23, 2015 by nick sussex

[Gibby]

While we are looking at some potentially very windy and wet weather over the next week or so with some cold incursions for the North at times each model run to me seems to increasingly be pointing towards another mild week coming up next week as winds back more towards the SW and High pressure positions itself in an awful position for supporting cold across the UK i.e. over France and Spain. All models now seem to be leaning this way with even tonight's ECM 10 Day Mean showing higher pressure than this morning's with a move of 100mls or so further North of the Jet Stream. Not as mild as last week but comparatively mild to what we have now.

Edited November 23, 2015 by Gibby

[MPG]

Wow plenty of debate. As I said, temperatures in the eastern equortical area are significantly cooler than in 97/98. I'm not sure you could describe the temperatures as consistant basin wide, but in 97/98 they were. There is a basin wide El nino yes, but not in temperature terms. Taking temperatures this El nino is different.

[TSNWK]

While we are looking at some potentially very windy and wet weather over the next week or so with some cold incursions for the North at times each model run to me seems to increasingly be pointing towards another mild week coming up next week as winds back more towards the SW and High pressure positions itself in an awful position for supporting cold across the UK i.e. over France and Spain. All models now seem to be leaning this way with even tonight's ECM 10 Day Mean showing higher pressure than this morning's with a move of 100mls or so further North of the Jet Stream. Not as mild as last week but comparatively mild to what we have now.

Good! If I can't have a decent cold spell! Then give me very mild and save the gas bill! Thank you Gibby hope you ok.

[StretfordEnd1996]

Staying on topic with model output, it looks like there will be some rather mild temperatures overnight on Thursday going into Friday, with most places waking up to almost double figure temperatures; 

 

But 12 hours later we see some colder conditions moving in from the north west, meaning temperatures quickly slide to a much more seasonable feel 

 

 

 

This coupled with relatively unsettled conditions could lead to some precipitation turning wintry in the North on high ground. 

 

I think some people are being too downbeat and upset about the outlook at the moment. Yes, alright, there's a relatively mild and snow free couple of weeks coming up, and Atlantic based brief cold incursions like these are non eventful for some. But a lot of people are saying there is nothing exciting going on at the moment; for me, a fall of around 10'C to around freezing temperatures coupled with bands of rain, sleet and snow, even if only brief, and even if it's to be succeeded by a rapid increase again on Sunday is still enough to get me excited. 

Edited November 23, 2015 by SouthPenninesPuppy

[bluearmy]

While we are looking at some potentially very windy and wet weather over the next week or so with some cold incursions for the North at times each model run to me seems to increasingly be pointing towards another mild week coming up next week as winds back more towards the SW and High pressure positions itself in an awful position for supporting cold across the UK i.e. over France and Spain. All models now seem to be leaning this way with even tonight's ECM 10 Day Mean showing higher pressure than this morning's with a move of 100mls or so further North of the Jet Stream. Not as mild as last week but comparatively mild to what we have now.

This movement east of the Azores ridge to cover Iberia and France has been well advertised on the extended ens means and anomolys. Of course it still has to verify but it seems likely at the moment. It could well extend further north to encompass the southern half of England and Wales too.

[damianslaw]

Staying on topic with model output, it looks like there will be some rather mild temperatures overnight on Thursday going into Friday, with most places waking up to almost double figure temperatures; 

 

But 12 hours later we see some colder conditions moving in from the north west, meaning temperatures quickly slide to a much more seasonable feel 

 

 

 

This coupled with relatively unsettled conditions could lead to some precipitation turning wintry in the North on high ground. 

 

I think some people are being too downbeat and upset about the outlook at the moment. Yes, alright, there's a relatively mild and snow free couple of weeks coming up, and Atlantic based brief cold incursions like these are non eventful for some. But a lot of people are saying there is nothing exciting going on at the moment; for me, a fall of around 10'C to around freezing temperatures coupled with bands of rain, sleet and snow, even if only brief, and even if it's to be succeeded by a rapid increase again on Sunday is still enough to get me excited. 

 

 

Indeed as I said yesterday the outlook is very standard for the time of year - what you would normally expect, and very common to see quick flips between mild and something cooler from the NW. Take a look at many charts for early December and you will often see the atlantic in full fury with a raging jet, this is not the time of year for colder conditions relative to average to surface. What happened in 2010 raised many expectations for what early winter should be like, alas it was quite exceptional and an anomaly.

 

What is interesting this year is how we see the PV ranked up to max gear very early in the season, and history shows naturally it weakens as we move through the winter (2014 was an exception though..), it bodes well perhaps for quite a different set up and emerging changes as we enter the new year.

 

Back to the models, they are showing very unsettled conditions for all, with the Jetstream flattening out somewhat as we enter the start of winter, with the re-emergence perhaps of more central euro heights, no surprising mirroring what you would expect to see with background El Nino state. My eyes over the next couple of weeks will be on the Siberian high and where it decides to position itself, 2 opposing major blocks would naturally force the jet to funnel down over scandi and into N/C Europe as we have seen over the weekend. The start of winter 2015/2016 is likely to be dictated by which will have the greatest influence, as the winter wears on the Siberian high traditionally gains the upper hand..