Scotland Weather Discussion - 20th November 2015 and Onwards...

[Guest]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=34&mode=42&map=330

Ok ladies and gents, here's your morning challenge. Pick through the charts on the link above and try to work out where and when it's going to snow in the next 36 hours. It is defo going to snow in places, it is defo going to rain in other places and in some places it's going to snow then rain then snow then rain again. Utter mess, but it's a nice mess to be in  

[Northern Strath]

19 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Nice vid of Snow falling in Crowfordjohn yesterday.

 

 

You know it's the good stuff when you hear the frazzle on the wires

Aye Edo can't beat a bit of dreich, west is best when it comes to the Highlands

colder this morning than through the night, -7C when I got up and currently -5C. Squirrel feeder was locked shut with frost, might have to buy him a wee blow torch and a welders helmut 

Edited January 9, 2016 by Northern Strath

[snawbaw]

-5C and absolutely beautiful. I'm happy if it snows but if it stayed dry and frosty I would be very happy, no rain please.

[November13]

Anyone seeing anything white in southwest?

[peborant]

12 minutes ago, snawbaw said:

-5C and absolutely beautiful. I'm happy if it snows but if it stayed dry and frosty I would be very happy, no rain please.

What a particularly stunning bit of Scotland you're in, and of course prone to low temperatures due to your position although I am fairly sure nothing compared to 20mi down the road when you reach the Glencoe valley and the tundra-like plateau (I was there in March 2013 and I could not believe how 'baltic' it looked, I certainly had not seen anything like that. My mum was on the (right) wheel shouting at me in harsh Spanish: 'you SO knew that we would end up in this wasteland, this road is all frozen etc.' I was astonished and loving the whole scene. Memories of a day in which we drove the route down from Portree into Edinburgh via Glencoe-Crianlarich-Glen Ogle. By the time we got to the motorway in Bridge of Allan we were ready to cry. And also we had quite a bit more of snaw in Edinburgh, where I used to live, even when she left. I remember she was in central Spain soon after and sending me pictures of flooded streams there. Jet Stream was proper where IT NEEDS TO BE for a nice chance. There were snow drifts until 4th April on top of Arthur (L) and cool-ish dynamic into mid-April. 

Now I am doubtful, praying for calm weather to allow for some evaporative cooling when rains arrive. Temps are forecast to be in the range of 2-3 when that happens but sensor is recording 0.3 and school 1.6 (EDIT: 2.1), which is lower than expected so everything could happen. 

Nice frost this morning, with a min of -2.8 though although clearly melting now. Sensor was recording 0.3 at 10.40 at 11.05 it is 1.1. Note how temps when increase, they increase together but last night the difference with the clear skies was much more marked (school -0.3 and outside -3.1 under the most precious, star-filled skies). It is cool to see the impact of the building and a more 'real' reading. I bet sensor did hit -5 last night at some point if not less, this morning when I first checked it (7.45am), it was reading -2.6 and a hard frost about that has lingered until 10.30am or so. 

How can a degree of difference have so much of an impact though and how does this affect my chances for some snow later? After all it is a 'dry' day with a 92% rh and dew point is at a healthy 0.9, probably lower on open air so we will see. Looking good for the central belt I think though. 

Have a good day!

[Hawesy]

Morning all,

Min was +0.3c here last night so no air frost. -2.2c was the min at Leuchars.

My take on the next few days is that inland areas with modest elevation will certainly see some (more) snow but coastal and low-lying areas will struggle. From about Wednesday onwards there should be colder uppers in place (at least for a few days) so a better chance for those of us living in less snow-prone areas.

Having said that I certainly don't expect to see any accumulating snow here in Crail in the coming week, I've got a 5 year long record to keep intact, after all!

[Poots]

-2c here and our snow cover has frozen. You can still see the grass in most places, but it's a lovely dusting and the sky is looking promising. Lovely to look out on instead of driving rain!

[Northern Strath]

Pixie dust snow here -3.5C

[SW Saltire]

1 hour ago, November13 said:

Anyone seeing anything white in southwest?

2.1c

heavy, heavy rain.

worst kind of weather imo.

zero flakes of snow or even sleet.

 

so enjoy the snowcover whileyou  guys can!

sorry to be the bearer of bad news, you giys fair better than me so have half a chance however surely i'd be seeing some sleet if most of you fellow low lying people were to see snow further north....?

anyway, good luck but don't expect too much... Sorry!

[Frozen Britain]

10 minutes ago, SW Saltire said:

2.1c

heavy, heavy rain.

worst kind of weather imo.

zero flakes of snow or even sleet.

 

so enjoy the snowcover whileyou  guys can!

sorry to be the bearer of bad news, you giys fair better than me so have half a chance however surely i'd be seeing some sleet if most of you fellow low lying people were to see snow further north....?

anyway, good luck but don't expect too much... Sorry!

It is raining here too. I wonder if it will turn to snow. It started as rain yesterday too. Milder air must have moved in.

[SW Saltire]

Edit: reverse psychology works!

 

now 1.8c and flakes of snow falling.

Maybe you guys have a chance!

depends what temp it starts at really, you need 1.5c and lower. Will start as rain but may turn to some nice snow for a lucky few

[lorenzo]

Postcard stuff this morning, nice fog overnight, ice rinks galore, trees still frozen and no drip-drip sound of the Tmax thaw.

Okay who bought either a huge snaw shield for Xmas ??? 21 degrees. Perhaps another weather station has become Skynet like Ravelin's.

Looking at radar vs NMM band ahead of the models perhaps by around 1.5 -2 hrs.

Showing as sleety stuff over the hills, but I fear rain until later on when it gets into a deeper pool of cold air. Definitely a see what falls scenario!

 

 

[Northern Strath]

The usual subtle and nuanced insight of events from The Express 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/632611/UK-Weather-Snow-snowbomb-red-alert-UK-coldest-winter-58-years

We get the worst winter for 50 years every year with them. Looking forward to the 'Several feet of snow' that's coming. Who needs 'The Onion' or 'The Daily Mash' when you have The Express

[NUT]

Wasn't nice walking dogs at half 9 this morning. Was pretty foggy with the wind freshening at same time and jolly cold too. Not nice. Rain or..................whatever it will be isn't too far away now. Tomorrow doesn't look too nice

[Stormeh]

It is snowing here again, has my town been pushed up about 150asl or something lol?  It may well turn to rain soon but who knows? 

Still a nice cover of snow from last night 

[Sunshineandshowers84]

Snowing heavy here but I wonder if this will turn to Rain.. Forecast is to be above freezing overnight with showers behind this rain band.

[Bullseye]

Snowing here in southeast of the city. Snow of yesterday has melted somewhat and become an ice rink! Models still looking good for us next week with possible snow event for Thursday/Friday.

[Kayemill]

The band seemed to break up right over here. Had a few flakes now nothing. Temp up to 0.8. Can't see the snow lasting given the temp forecast. 

Was a nice surprise yesterday though. 

[lorenzo]

28 minutes ago, Northern Strath said:

The usual subtle and nuanced insight of events from The Express 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/632611/UK-Weather-Snow-snowbomb-red-alert-UK-coldest-winter-58-years

We get the worst winter for 50 years every year with them. Looking forward to the 'Several feet of snow' that's coming. Who needs 'The Onion' or 'The Daily Mash' when you have The Express

Nathan Rao with utter gibberish again fuelled by Corbyn and Madden.

Good quotes from Jim Dale at BWS, wonder if he posts on here...  hmmm, and Ed, @chionomaniac used in context from the Winter forecast. Reads correctly if not for the SSW which as I drunkenly explained the other night, we do not have a technical SSW, but we do have trop led factors which have done enough to smash up the tropospheric vortex and  fire some high latititude blocks and AO shift.

[lorenzo]

 

Sending this to the East of Scotland to sort out that 21.5C snaw shield someone built.. !

 

[Northern Strath]

6 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

Nathan Rao with utter gibberish again fuelled by Corbyn and Madden.

Good quotes from Jim Dale at BWS, wonder if he posts on here...  hmmm, and Ed, @chionomaniac used in context from the Winter forecast. Reads correctly if not for the SSW which as I drunkenly explained the other night, we do not have a technical SSW, but we do have trop led factors which have done enough to smash up the tropospheric vortex and  fire some high latititude blocks and AO shift.

I'd take wine fuelled forecasting from yourself (and many others on here) Lorenzo over Corbyn, he's certainly quids in each year we'll give him that 

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Raining here on my snaw.

0.7 C.

 

EDIT. Just read SW's post and looked up at the velux roof window. It's sleety when before it was just rain.

Edited January 9, 2016 by scottish skier

[chionomaniac]

15 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

Nathan Rao with utter gibberish again fuelled by Corbyn and Madden.

Good quotes from Jim Dale at BWS, wonder if he posts on here...  hmmm, and Ed, @chionomaniac used in context from the Winter forecast. Reads correctly if not for the SSW which as I drunkenly explained the other night, we do not have a technical SSW, but we do have trop led factors which have done enough to smash up the tropospheric vortex and  fire some high latititude blocks and AO shift.

Using a forecast quote from 2 months ago as if it is current now. What a *******

[101_North]

Raining here!

[lorenzo]

Thanks NS, it's neither wonder Liam Dutton was firing into him the other day on Twitter also, it's standard from them.

Hype Headline - Armageddon

Spurious quote from Madden.

Hyperbole from Corbyn.

Couple of really random charts.

More quotes cherry picked from the ages.

Key Take Away - Armageddon.

If you gave a P6 or P7 class a creative writing competition and said include the words - Arctic, snowbomb, freeze, End of Days etc

They would come up with better copy. Pretty bloody frustrating and about as far away from science as one could imagine !

Actually - perhaps they just use this spoof site in reality ! http://expressbingo.org.uk/

This is actually more genius from Monbiot, hopefully he has them in his sights again.

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/georgemonbiot/2015/apr/09/daily-express-weather-warning-beware-a-shower-of-extreme-inaccuracy

 

Edited January 9, 2016 by lorenzo