Scotland Weather Discussion - 20th November 2015 and Onwards...

[snowy owl]

Wouldn't we all love this today. Shows how things can change in America, from record warmth to lots of snow & Ice.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/video_and_audio/must_see/35289704

[101_North]

3 minutes ago, snowy owl said:

Wouldn't we all love this today. Shows how things can change in America, from record warmth to lots of snow & Ice.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/video_and_audio/must_see/35289704

You're cruel!

Edited January 12, 2016 by 101_North

[snowy owl]

@101_North  - i think i'm going to emigrate lol

[GrangemouthBairn]

Just watched the weather forecast on the BBC news channel and Philip Avery saying there could be some significant snow for the central belt overnight tomorrow night as a weather front comes in from the west but he did say there was a lot of uncertainty and by the look of his map, the central belt is as far north as it gets before it slips south. Something to watch

[November13]

I will honestly settle for 2 days of lying snow before the winter is out. That's how desperate things are at the moment.

 

I will be delighted if I am wrong and I wake up to snow in the morning!

[November13]

Yeh saw that Bairn. This morning they weren't sure how far past Lanark it would get. If it gets here and stalls then it's game on. As long as the uppers play ball!

[101_North]

31 minutes ago, GrangemouthBairn said:

Just watched the weather forecast on the BBC news channel and Philip Avery saying there could be some significant snow for the central belt overnight tomorrow night as a weather front comes in from the west but he did say there was a lot of uncertainty and by the look of his map, the central belt is as far north as it gets before it slips south. Something to watch

Euro4 has it south of the Central Belt at the minute but all to play for - need it further north for sure:

  

Euro4 seems to have called today quite well. Hope it's wrong about tomorrow! Something tells me it'll not be!

NMM seems to have snow for the Central Belt though if you run the animation:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=1&mode=42&map=330

Edited January 12, 2016 by 101_North

[mistyqueen]

So, all day both weather stations were showing big, smiley sun symbols. They lied I tell you, they lied! Been raining here all day and cauld intae the bargain. Needless to say there's nae snaw on the horizon, but I'd sure love the rain to stop and just give us a few more dry days! 

After the beast that was Frank left a bit of destruction in his wake, the builder arrived today and started to strip all the old wood panelling out of the affected room. It didn't take him too long and hopefully tomorrow he'll make a start on the roof. At least if that can be made wind and watertight before the next drenching that'll be a plus. This is why I'm praying for some dry weather!

[NUT]

Guess it's time to look at the skies tomorrow night. Could be all or nothing. Would be nice to see some of the white stuff

[SW Saltire]

Feeling Baltic earlier in the fierce wind. Hovered between 2-4c all day. Chilly.

However, not cold enough for snow which is frustrating tbh.

no idea how much (if any) i'll see in the coming days.... I expect to see some fall but how much to lie would be the million £ question.

[snawbaw]

3 hours ago, knocker said:

Rare 'hair ice' discovered in Bracklinn Woods

National park rangers have found a rare form of ice covering dozens of pieces of dead wood in woodland near Callander.

The "hair ice" is a highly unusual type of frost that needs a very particular set of conditions to form.

Suzanne Humphris, a ranger team leader for the Loch Lomond and the Trossachs National Park, discovered the ice in the Bracklinn Woods on Friday.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-tayside-central-35280155?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_weather&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central

Not sure how they classify rare but I see this stuff in winter when it's frosty.  I had it in my garden on Saturday and it's all over the place down by the woods/river locally.  We must have the 'very particular' conditions for it to form then...lucky me.  It is very intriguing.

[LomondSnowstorm]

I'd say things look relatively promising overall at the moment - the main problem for us is that, so far, most of the runs for when it does get cold enough for low ground snow (tomorrow onwards) is a lack of precipitation. The northernmost extent of tomorrow night's front is hard to pin down, but given how Friday's front behaved there's room for cautious optimism. The only thing I would caution is about catching the northern edge of it, where surface winds will be easterly - 950s look very good if there's little wind but near the coast things could get a bit dicey (this is going to change in about half an hour when the 12Z comes out anyway but it gives a reasonable idea):

The NMM is relatively similar generally but places another distinct front along the northern edge of the secondary low, which hits early evening as far north as Perthshire before sinking southeastwards as the night goes on. I've sometimes seen it overdo precipitation totals which makes me a bit sceptical but given its resolution and the Met Office clearly seeing the possibility of the front getting into the central belt I think the most likely outcome is a band of (mostly) snow moving across us from around 8pm-2am or so, a bit later than the NMM and a bit further south. Which, coincidentally, is what the French high-res model has:

I'm also interested in this for Saturday:

 

Firstly, that looks tantalisingly close to a proper extension of this cold snap/mini-spell, but also another secondary low sinking southwards dragging in -8C uppers on its northern flank with a slack NErly flow behind could be very interesting. 

Long term, this is even more interesting:

UKMO has tended to overdo blocking, so I'm not ready to fully buy into it quite yet, but at the very least there's quite likely to be an extension of the cold until the start of next week and the potential for a snowy breakdown on the leading edge of the next incoming low.

Hard to pin down specifics as ever but in a few hours there will be enough cold air in place for lying snow at low levels, and that's a fine starting point.

[Hairy Celt]

4 hours ago, knocker said:

Rare 'hair ice' discovered in Bracklinn Woods

National park rangers have found a rare form of ice covering dozens of pieces of dead wood in woodland near Callander.

The "hair ice" is a highly unusual type of frost that needs a very particular set of conditions to form.

Suzanne Humphris, a ranger team leader for the Loch Lomond and the Trossachs National Park, discovered the ice in the Bracklinn Woods on Friday.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-tayside-central-35280155?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_weather&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central

It's about as rare as dogpoop although rather prettier and less smelly.  It happens when ice gets extruded from saturated wood during lengthy cold spells - well, more than a day or so.  If you go through woodlands with dead wood lying around you'll see it every winter.  Rare my airse.

Edited January 12, 2016 by Hairy Celt

[Hairy Celt]

20 minutes ago, SW Saltire said:

Feeling Baltic earlier in the fierce wind. Hovered between 2-4c all day. Chilly.

However, not cold enough for snow which is frustrating tbh.

no idea how much (if any) i'll see in the coming days.... I expect to see some fall but how much to lie would be the million £ question.

Oh SWS, please keep posting - I need to see your well-proportioned torso OFTEN....

[SW Saltire]

27 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

Oh SWS, please keep posting - I need to see your well-proportioned torso OFTEN....

Is that a hint to change my DP? 

Not happening. 

 

If not.... Just go on an app called 'grinder' mate. You'll find many well 'proportioned' torso's on there i'm sure!

Edited January 12, 2016 by SW Saltire

[snawbaw]

33 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

It's about as rare as dogpoop although rather prettier and less smelly.  It happens when ice gets extruded from saturated wood during lengthy cold spells - well, more than a day or so.  If you go through woodlands with dead wood lying around you'll see it every winter.  Rare my airse.

Is that not what I said?  Obviously just not as eloquently put as you, hehe 

[JoeShmoe]

Latest BBC N24 forecast seemed quite bullish on snow tomorrow esp in southern Scotland 

[SW Saltire]

Reporting Scotland forecast said '1-2cm' possible depending on where this band ends up...

showed snow for me but i'll take that with a large pinch of salt. 

Hopefully i get at least a covering and then it will all freeze and only slowly melt over the coming days as it looks like we will see some lovely sunshine as well as very cold nights.

[Bullseye]

ECM sliding with UKMO which is good news for sake of model thread ha! Bad news all the talk about snow events for England/Wales so don't know where that leaves us in snow situation ha!

[Hawesy]

Evening all,

Dreadful morning in NE Fife and the roads were worse than last week locally. Fortunately it dried up this afternoon. Max was around 6c.

Hope to see some fellow posters on this thread get some snow later tomorrow - it's always an encouraging sign when LS posts! 

Needless to say I'm not expecting any snow here but I will be interested to see if we can record a decent min during the incoming cold spell (not managed -3c since 2012/13) and any sunshine will be welcomed with open arms.

[Hairy Celt]

Oh will it snow, will it snow, will it snow, will it snow on me...?

Nope. Fack off and find a hill.

[Hairy Celt]

1 hour ago, SW Saltire said:

Is that a hint to change my DP? 

Not happening. 

 

If not.... Just go on an app called 'grinder' mate. You'll find many well 'proportioned' torso's on there i'm sure!

Lol. You spelled it wrong so you can't be a true believer.

[101_North]

I know it will change before the event but the latest Euro4 is a horror show for tomorrow night! It shows the ppn so far south it misses Scotland entirely!

Edited January 12, 2016 by 101_North

[LomondSnowstorm]

ECM certainly an 'upgrade' for us in terms of cold - Freuchie updated faster on yr.no than Edinburgh for some reason so at first glance it looked as though there was a temperature gradient of about 8C between the two by next Thursday, but fortunately it's just gone from mild and wet here to cold and (potentially) snowy then. All academic of course when it's 10 days out and the temperature gradient is so sharp:

 

[Hairy Celt]

6 minutes ago, 101_North said:

I know it will change before the event but the latest Euro4 is a horror show for tomorrow night! It shows the ppn so far south it almost misses Scotland entirely!

NMM4 (from midday today) has a good dumping for central Scotland....