Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[forecaster]

10 hours ago, s4lancia said:

Thanks, I am familiar with confirmation bias. I can't argue that the fact that the mean of the ENS suite fluxuates to the same degree as Op runs do, of course not, but (perhaps poorly) the point I was trying to make is that on numerous occasions the ensembles have proved as useful as a chocolate fireguard, predominately clustered (with or without the Op) for days on end only for them to switch, job lot, overnight and point to a completely different scenario. 

Don't get me wrong, when looking out for the next cold spell I always take in the Ens data, they very much have their place but I would take op + control over the ens every day of the week. By which I mean if the op and control show one thing and the main Ens cluster another, I know where my money is going.

 

That's probably a sound strategy in some situations but not in all situations. The difficulty is in knowing what kind of situation it is to begin with

 

[forecaster]

I had a look at the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index for temperature in Days 10-15. Not even a hint of cold even over Eastern Europe and Russia. I found that pretty surprising, it looks cold even on the ensemble but maybe it's going to be relatively cold compared with now, but still fairly nea average....

[MR EXTREMES]

53 minutes ago, knocker said:

The ecm is forecasting a positive NAO and AO until the 25th jan.

Until it's next update I won't hold my breath to a disruption to the vortex but there's broad agreement between the models of a change but only will my excitement explode.

bottom line is I wrote the whole of this winter of but as Nino weakens and mjo kick into gear it would be foolish to believe that the outside chance is there.

incredible runs being churned out for some days now it's not nailed I'm on the fence but knocker it's just one model your using something brewing but which way will it go

merry Christmas to all 

[Frosty.]

55 minutes ago, knocker said:

Although approaching nearer normality the GEFS temp anomaly is still positive by the end of the run.

 

Oh no, knocker is using the red colouring pens again! BUT I don't care.... Merry christmas all

[Tamara]

Any long range signals that may be floating in or out within GloSea5, ECM and GEFS numerical models that show more blocked and much colder potential from late this month/but more especially into the New Year will be dependant on the various evolutions and tropical and extra tropical co-operation outlined in this post to verify them (Posted end of November)

Just a message to wish everyone a very Happy Christmas

This is not a time for in depth details and explanations, but the small extract from that previous post remains very relevant a month later, and as we can see, the models themselves are now reflecting a hint at the blueprint of how the seasonal pattern has been expected to unfold beyond the full on super mild and unsettled conditions of December that have already crippled parts of the NW and ensured that people there are having the most difficult Christmas imaginable. Thoughts are with them

The tedium and unpalatable conditions continue to see out the old year and see us into the new one, but I do think that the worm is turning, and at the very least, model watching is becoming more interesting, and is going to become a lot more interesting still into the New Year. More immediate suggestions of complete fell-swoop changes to cold and blocked do look rather premature to me, as very welcome as they are to see - but the feedback pattern is becoming much more closely aligned towards proper vortex damage and the type of attack combo's that previous posts had explained in detail were going to be needed to occur. Changes to combined tropical and extra tropical forcing should mean that our Nino high atmospheric angular momentum state can propel a much more appealing type of amplification pattern across the NH than the downstream Euro High ridging that has dominated for so long. In doing so, it is going to help bring about the opportunity for re-arrangement of the polar field in a way that increases the chances of a flip to -AO further on.

The question remains can it evolve favourably for UK and NW Europe? We cannot say yet, but we can say that at last there are indications the w/QBO +AO strangle-hold is set to lose its total grip and whatever happens, the second half of winter increasingly looks quite different to the first

 

 

Edited December 25, 2015 by Tamara

[knocker]

Seasons greetings Tamara; Lang may yer lum reek

[IDO]

3 minutes ago, Tamara said:

Any long range signals that may be floating in or out within GloSea5, ECM and GEFS numerical models that show more blocked and much colder potential from late this month/but more especially into the New Year will be dependant on the various evolutions and tropical and extra tropical co-operation outlined in this post to verify them (Posted end of November)

Just a message to wish everyone a very Happy Christmas

This is not a time for in depth details and explanations, but the small extract from that previous post remains very relevant a month later, and as we can see, the models themselves are now reflecting a hint at the blueprint of how the seasonal pattern has been expected to unfold beyond the full on super mild and unsettled conditions of December that have already crippled parts of the NW and ensured that people there are having the most difficult Christmas imaginable. Thoughts are with them

The tedium and unpalatable conditions continue to see out the old year and see us into the new one, but I do think that the worm is turning, and at the very least, model watching is becoming more interesting, and is going to become a lot more interesting still into the New Year. More immediate suggestions of complete fell-swoop changes to cold and blocked do look rather premature to me, as very welcome as they are to see - but the feedback pattern is becoming much more closely aligned towards proper vortex damage and the type of attack combo's that previous posts had explained in detail were going to be needed to occur. Changes to combined tropical and extra tropical forcing should mean that our Nino high atmospheric angular momentum state can propel a much more appealing type of amplification pattern across the NH than the downstream Euro High ridging that has dominated for so long. In doing so, it is going to help bring about the opportunity for re-arrangement of the polar field in a way that increases the chances of a flip to -AO further on.

The question remains can it evolve favourably for UK and NW Europe? We cannot say yet, but we can say that at last there are indications the w/QBO +AO strange-hold is set to lose its total grip and whatever happens, the second half of winter increasingly looks quite different to the first

 

 

Happy Xmas to you (and other posters), and have missed your brilliant posts. Look forward to more in depth stuff in the coming months, as the search for cold continues...

[legritter]

I will say again all the best to all this christmas ,hope eventually that we can see something colder and hopefully snowy in the new year ,atleast just to let us know that the weather [mother nature ] is in total control ,cheers all ,off now to lift turkey out of the oven and put on the veg vcheers 

[Frosty.]

16 minutes ago, Tamara said:

but we can say that at last there are indications the w/QBO +AO strange-hold is set to lose its total grip and whatever happens, the second half of winter increasingly looks quite different to the first

 

 

Many thanks Tamara and Merry christmas , you just made a desperate dan of a coldie happier

[The Enforcer]

I have mixed emotions about this Siberian High Pressure. There is of course a chance of some polar continental air making it to the UK. However, when I look at both the 00z and 06z outputs a T+168, what catches my eye is that the High is halting the westward transition of a southerly airflow and preventing a surprisingly strong polar maritime flow from reaching the UK. My other worry is that from this position, the Jet goes over the top of the High and pushes it south so it morphs into another Euro slug.

[Daniel*]

Very misleading knocks the northern hemisphere profile is being reshuffled, consequently there's a greater affinity to cold for British Isles - the vortex looks to be in a precarious, seriously disturbed state out in FI. 

[knocker]

Oh I don't know, pretty good really for the GEFS

[Methuselah]

6 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Very misleading knocks the northern hemisphere profile is being reshuffled, consequently there's a greater affinity to cold for British Isles - the vortex looks to be in a precarious, seriously disturbed state out in FI. 

Fair point, Daniel; although I'm not sure that knocker is being 'misleading'?

Things are, of course, on the change. That said, judging from what the last two months have seen, anything would be have 'a greater affinity to cold for the British Isles'? So, IMO, things can only get better!

[Daniel*]

11 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Fair point, Daniel; although I'm not sure that knocker is being 'misleading'?

Things are, of course, on the change. That said, judging from what the last two months have seen, anything would be have 'a greater affinity to cold for the British Isles'? So, IMO, things can only get better!

In reference to this "if there are straws for the coldies to clutch they are invisible to me." Well you can choose to turn a blind eye I'll give him that.

[A.J]

I know we're all weather'n'chart geeks, but get off the net for a few hours, have a drink and stuff yourselves silly, it's christmas! ....merry christmas folks!  

[Methuselah]

8 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

In reference to this "if there are straws for the coldies to clutch they are invisible to me." Well you can choose to turn a blind eye I'll give him that.

As we get older, Daniel, small straws get more difficult to see, and we must admit that the current straws really are a little on the small side?

So, with that wee pearl-of-wisdom, I'll wish y'all a very merry Christmas.

[Somersetwatcher]

Great to see Tamara posting again....merry Christmas all!

[A.J]

10 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

It's the Xmas day 12zs soon you joking

I'll be watching as I'm eating my turkey

hardcore legend....lol

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

I know we're all weather'n'chart geeks, but get off the net for a few hours, have a drink and stuff yourselves silly, it's christmas! ....merry christmas folks!  

Here Here AJ, It doesn't matter that it's 13/14c in the south today and tomorrow because it's christmas and we can just drink and eat and drink some more and the world seems a better place than it actually is! at least for a few hours.....to use another star wars theme,  sometime in the early part of next year...cold weather strikes back

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Greenland1080 said:

Frosty I'm still lamppost watching...think I must be drunk my post ended up in the stratosphere

LOL I hope all the coldies will be lampost watching through the second half of winter...Thanks mods for allowing festive banter in the model output discussion. much appreciated guys

[A.J]

13 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Here Here AJ, It doesn't matter that it's 13/14c in the south today and tomorrow because it's christmas and we can just drink and eat and drink some more and the world seems a better place than it actually is! at least for a few hours.....to use another star wars theme,  sometime in the early part of next year...cold weather strikes back

As far as winter and cold goes, all I have to say is........

" There's been an awakening. Have you felt it? "

[Cloud 10]

A nice deep plunge in the AO on today's updated GEFS forecast.

 

[snefnug]

2 hours ago, Tamara said:

Any long range signals that may be floating in or out within GloSea5, ECM and GEFS numerical models that show more blocked and much colder potential from late this month/but more especially into the New Year will be dependant on the various evolutions and tropical and extra tropical co-operation outlined in this post to verify them (Posted end of November)

Just a message to wish everyone a very Happy Christmas

 

 

And a very Happy Christmas to you Tamara.  Thank you for the Xmas Post.

 

And you lot !   Dinner's Ready!   

 

Merry Christmas!

Quote

 

 

 

[shaky]

You cant help but think this evenings 12z and tomorrows 00z runs are seriously important for cold weather lovers!!!lets hope for some more upgrades and at a slightly earlier time frame aswell!!eyes down 20 mins...

[Frosty.]

21 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

 

" There's been an awakening. Have you felt it? "

Indeed AJ, I mentioned yesterday the Gfs 6z showed a disturbance in the force and i'm generally more optimistic about early next year, not just because of the gfs and other models but because of Tamara's latest thoughts and of course John Holmes tentative signs yesterday regarding the 500mb anomalies indicating a possible major pattern change in the not too distant future! It's been a very mild mush fest so far this winter but I think the majority on here who are coldies, will have something to smile about SOON.