Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, booferking said:

Whats the odds now of this happening GFS has went the other way in the short term, has the UKMO got a better verification rate than the GFS to any of you experienced posters.

It does have a better verification and for any easterly you need it onside as its got the reputation of being the killjoy in the past. If the Euros agree then the GFS would likely to backtrack towards them but we still need some luck even with that UKMO. If the PV was weaker it would be  a slam dunk for an east/ne flow but that's still a problem at the moment.

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

 If you get favourable trough disruption at that point then you can get your woolie hats and ear muffs out of storage!

Something stirring in the woodshed? Nice to see nick and the chosen one so positive for the cold corner on christmas day.

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Whats the odds now of this happening GFS has went the other way in the short term, has the UKMO got a better verification rate than the GFS to any of you experienced posters.

Yes it has but I doubt that makes much of a difference on this upcoming period. the split of energy in the jet is a real conundrum and the ECM op should be the best tool to work it out.  (Incidentally, the parallel ECM op doesn't bring a beasterly to Eastern Europe by day 10. 

[Cloud 10]

The GEM certainly has its party hat on today.

 

[booferking]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

It does have a better verification and for any easterly you need it onside as its got the reputation of being the killjoy in the past. If the Euros agree then the GFS would likely to backtrack towards them but we still need some luck even with that UKMO. If the PV was weaker it would be  a slam dunk for an east/ne flow but that's still a problem at the moment.

Cheers thanks for your input we are making small steps .

 

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

It does have a better verification and for any easterly you need it onside as its got the reputation of being the killjoy in the past. If the Euros agree then the GFS would likely to backtrack towards them but we still need some luck even with that UKMO. If the PV was weaker it would be  a slam dunk for an east/ne flow but that's still a problem at the moment.

.

[Methuselah]

7 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

The GEM certainly has its party hat on today.

 

And, by this time tomorrow, said 'party hat' will have been blown into knocker's woodshed?

Edited December 25, 2015 by Ed Stone

[Eskimo]

Looks as though, bit by bit, model by model, we are leaning towards a colder outlook. The GEM picked it up first, dropped the idea completely, then the GFS followed, and has now dropped it, for the UKMO to now pick up the idea and the GEM has brought it back again....phew 

Eyes down for the ECM in an hour, let's see if she can sing from the frozen hymn sheet. 

Edited December 25, 2015 by PerfectStorm

[Mucka]

So GEM drops it(now picking it back up) and GFS picks up the baton, only to drop it and for UKMO to pick it up.

You can see that either as a positive or a negative in that each models has toyed with a good Scandi high and incoming Easterly  but also we have never had any model agreement at all.

Most concerning is just how bullish the MetO are about no Easterly or decent cold.

Rule nothing out though as that UKMO 144 chart is a cracker and we are getting more and more support for a decent Scandi block. Where the models are wavering is whether we will get any decent trough disruption and energy under the block or whether it will mainly flow over the top and sink it.

Edited December 25, 2015 by Mucka

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

5 hours ago, Gustywind said:

Reading this thread, "you say potato" etc springs to mind sometimes.

Booferking predicting extreme cold, while a certain Conish woodshed-dweller prdicts mild wet and windy for the next 10 millennia.  I'm totally confused.

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Booferking predicting extreme cold, while a certain Conish woodshed-dweller prdicts mild wet and windy for the next 10 millennia.  I'm totally confused.

Something between those two extremes sounds more realistic..I'm looking forward to winter!!

[knocker]

10 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Booferking predicting extreme cold, while a certain Conish woodshed-dweller prdicts mild wet and windy for the next 10 millennia.  I'm totally confused.

Never fear, you will emerge from the darkness

[knocker]

Tweet from MV

"Strongest signal in the ECMWF Week 4 height anomaly is yet another massive Aleutian low pressure system"

[Frosty.]

13 minutes ago, knocker said:

Never fear, you will emerge from the darkness

Careful with that candle knocks, don't burn down the woodshed!

[kev238]

It's undeniable that there is a potential change afoot after the exceptional mild of December 

whereas 2 weeks ago it was a fairly straight forward call to suggest mild , wet and windy for the foreseeable it is now difficult to make a confident prediction .

If I were to, on the balance of probabilities , I would suggest a very disturbed zonal flow digging South with an increasing cold pool over Europe with us on the peripherary 

 

There does appear to be plenty of news worthy weather ahead and if a block does set up it may further stall rainfall events somewhere in the country 

[Jason M]

Well, GFS was X rated in the end. If anything though I think the GEFS are somewhat better than the earlier runs at days 8 and 9.

 

 

[fergieweather]

1 hour ago, Bolton67 said:

So the METO update is set in stone ? 

 

BBQ summer ring any bells ?

Of course not. That's why it's revised every day. And BBQ summer debacle is irrelevant: that was a PR mess epitomising poor communication of *probabilistic* forecasting. For exactly that reason, UKMO contingency planners document is NOT badged as a 'seasonal forecast'...albeit some transpose it as being so.

Presently, GloSea5 and EC Monthly remain in (broadly) good agreement out to later January, i.e. with core of +ve MSLP anomaly building to SW of UK by mid-Jan (GloSea5 has leaned to this outcome for many successive runs & EC Monthly has now supported it). Net result becomes more a mean NW flow by later Jan, as cited in UKMO web forecast. Meanwhile, recent GFS output (easterly etc) has very scant EC support in ENS/clusters as of 00z last night, but it's clearly plausible, because the potential is so obviously there out east (albeit *right now* it's there as a minority solution...but that doesn't wholly discount it).

Nonetheless, ongoing GloSea5 and now other nearer-term NWP suites signalling (perhaps marked) weakening of stratospheric PV from early Jan is more the key to how this ultimately unfolds if we adopt a longer-term view (rather than chasing every wildly-oscillating GFS run, a characteristic recently endemic in that suite), and how this may resolve our fortunes into the 2nd half of winter. 

[Methuselah]

32 minutes ago, knocker said:

Never fear, you will emerge from the darkness

Didn't Stephen King write a novel about you and your friend, Tommy, KnocKer?

[marksiwnc]

Nice to have fergieweather back in to give a more reasonable clarity on how the met office see things.  #hopeforcoldandsnow

[knocker]

18 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Didn't Stephen King write a novel about you and your friend, Tommy, KnocKer?

Well yes but we also featured in Tales From the Twilight World, an album by Blind Guardian which is more apt I feel.

[Jason M]

Good to see Fergie and Tamara posting today 

re weakening of the PV, it's really starting to show in the long term GEFS. Although obviously not reliable at best of times, there are some very strange looking charts increasingly showing in FI. Normally there is some sort of signal re the overall pattern even at day 15, but it's really just random scatter at the moment.

[marksiwnc]

Just now, fergieweather said:

Of course not. That's why it's revised every day. And BBQ summer debacle is irrelevant: that was a PR mess epitomising poor communication of *probabilistic* forecasting. For exactly that reason, UKMO contingency planners document is NOT badged as a 'seasonal forecast'...albeit some transpose it as being so.

Presently, GloSea5 and EC Monthly remain in (broadly) good agreement out to later January, i.e. with core of +ve MSLP anomaly building to SW of UK by mid-Jan (GloSea5 has leaned to this outcome for many successive runs & EC Monthly has now supported it). Net result becomes more a mean NW flow by later Jan, as cited in UKMO web forecast. Meanwhile, recent GFS output (easterly etc) has very scant EC support in ENS/clusters as of 00z last night, but it's clearly plausible, because the potential is so obviously there out east (albeit *right now* it's there as a minority solution...but that doesn't wholly discount it).

Nonetheless, ongoing GloSea5 and now other nearer-term NWP suites signalling (perhaps marked) weakening of stratospheric PV from early Jan is more the key to how this ultimately unfolds if we adopt a longer-term view (rather than chasing every wildly-oscillating GFS run, a characteristic recently endemic in that suite), and how this may resolve our fortunes into the 2nd half of winter. 

Just a quick question Ian. There seems to be very cold uppers consistently to our West / north West.  Would this not bring cold weather to the UK?? 

[knocker]

Some tasty WAA going on into the Arctic according to the GEFS. You must excuse the red crayon Frosty

[SMU]

ECM 96 brings the 0c isotherm north of Svalbard - looks good at 96 - very UKMO esque...

if both the euros look like the UKMO 144 tonight then there will certainly be more ensemble support ......

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Good to see Fergie and Tamara posting today 

re weakening of the PV, it's really starting to show in the long term GEFS. Although obviously not reliable at best of times, there are some very strange looking charts increasingly showing in FI. Normally there is some sort of signal re the overall pattern even at day 15, but it's really just random scatter at the moment.

The trop p/v - yes but the strat one?  We rely on andrej for that analysis

and mark - it's takes a pretty special flow to bring decent snowfall from the northwest with a long sea track 

[shaky]

Ecmwf certainly looks more like the ukmo than gfs at 120 hours!!!thats a good start!!hopefully gfs can give us a good 18z run!!