Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[gottolovethisweather]

Netweather can be a very empowering place with all the knowledge that floats around its towers and as a result, I wish you all (my friends) the very merriest of Christmases. 

As for the outlook, I agree with Frosty, forget 2015, 2016 is when Winter Strikes Back.  Can you feel the force of good will to all men and women, the snow will surely come to those who wait patiently. Sit back for now, watch the runs (too many brussels perhaps?) unfold , put on those ole Christmas movies when snow was snow and it seemed to be even better than the real thing.

<iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/WEDboC4mBYk" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

<iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/WEDboC4mBYk" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

https://youtu.be/WEDboC4mBYk

 

 

Edited December 25, 2015 by gottolovethisweather
Click on the link attached, cannot post up the video unless a mod can fix it! oh well.

[Methuselah]

Just don't write anything off, just yet...1975 had a mild January and start to February that was followed by unseasonably cold and snowy weather, in March, April and May (not to mention early June!)?

IMO, there are signs, however feeble, that things might be about to change: there are hints of rising pressure over Scandinavia; there are hints that the PV will soon come under stress, and there are hints, from the MET (I have trouble marrying all these hints together) of a more NW flow setting-up sometime after mid-January...

Let's just make the most out of what we have, for now?

[knocker]

1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

In reference to this "if there are straws for the coldies to clutch they are invisible to me." Well you can choose to turn a blind eye I'll give him that.

 I will refer my learned friend for the prosecution to the latest METO update whilst the ink is still wet. Methinks I'm not the only one doing a Nelson.

Edited December 25, 2015 by knocker

[Ali1977]

yep, defo looks like no cold spell on the way....time to forget about the latest positive charts according to the METO...

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, knocker said:

Well I'm not known as cyclops for nothing. But I will refer my learned friend for the prosecution to the latest METO update whilst the ink is still wet. Methinks I'm not the only one doing a Nelson.

Give coldies a break knocker, don't you think we have suffered enough without inflicting more pain! Can't wait for the cold weather to come

[knocker]

11 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Give coldies a break knocker, don't you think we have suffered enough without inflicting more pain! Can't wait for the cold weather to come

Frosty me old flower it's not me that's the problem it's the weather. Am I forgiven for not seeing the obvious?

 

Edited December 25, 2015 by knocker

[winterof79]

54 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

As far as winter and cold goes, all I have to say is........

" There's been an awakening. Have you felt it? "

It's simple aj there's magic in the air.Believe......

 

[Frosty.]

17 minutes ago, knocker said:

Frosty me old flower it's not me that's the problem it's the weather. Am I forgiven for not seeing the obvious?

 

Enjoy it while it lasts old flower

[shaky]

12z already seems more progressive than the 06z!!not a good start!!!

[SMU]

The notion that there will be a Scandi High now is pretty clear cut at circa nearly 100%

The WAA at t78 has perfect vertical allignment north out of the UK towards Western Norway -

look out for that atlantic kink in the jet at 144 to start to force some undercutting....

 

s

Edited December 25, 2015 by THE CHOSEN ONE

[gottolovethisweather]

6 minutes ago, THE CHOSEN ONE said:

The notion that there will be a Scandi High now is pretty clear cut at circa nearly 100%

The WAA at t78 has perfect vertical allignment north out of the UK towards Western Norway -

look out for that altlantic kink at 144 to start to force some undercutting....

 

s

A bit of kink for New Years Day is always good to look out for.  January 1st is hopefully becoming the New Year New weather game-changer, one can only hope.  At least soon we surely won't still be saying that it looks like further rain, dear.  Unfortunately before 2016 there is a lot of messy weather to be had around a few parts of the UK, including that beast of a low come next Tuesday. Whatever the weather, enjoy yourselves, I'm must be off to eat that Christmas pudding.

Edited December 25, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[knocker]

32 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

yep, defo looks like no cold spell on the way....time to forget about the latest positive charts according to the METO...

You see this is part of the problem. People build their hopes up on the flimsiest of evidence and when it looks like not materialising euphoria turns to despair. The latest METO update is the 'best guess' scenario based on all the evidence currently available. It does not rule out a sudden change of direction if, for example, there is a double whammy in the strat. Keep the belief but at least partly base it on reality.

[nick sussex]

Happy Christmas everyone.

Under the false pretence of having eaten too much ( whats new!) and feeling like a beached whale I made my get away to the calm sanctuary of the model discussion thread, I'm supposed to be having a lie down and then returning for more food!

Anyway I've decided to go into my festive bubble regardless of what the miseries at the UKMO have to say about prospects. The MJO forecasts head into phase 7, with chances of possible phase 8 and 1. So that should hopefully bring about some changes. Whether these are ones we want to see or whether they're fruitful for cold only time will tell.

I'm not sure we'll be able to override the angry PV quickly but I'd be hoping at least that a lobe of high pressure will develop to the ne to help force the jet se'wards. From there things might get a bit more interesting.

Edited December 25, 2015 by nick sussex

[Bolton67]

45 minutes ago, knocker said:

 I will refer my learned friend for the prosecution to the latest METO update whilst the ink is still wet. Methinks I'm not the only one doing a Nelson.

So the METO update is set in stone ? 

 

BBQ summer ring any bells ?

[knocker]

3 minutes ago, Bolton67 said:

So the METO update is set in stone ? 

 

BBQ summer ring any bells ?

See my post above. And just to add that was a seasonal forecast not a monthly.

Edited December 25, 2015 by knocker

[gottolovethisweather]

6 minutes ago, knocker said:

You see this is part of the problem. People build their hopes up on the flimsiest of evidence and when it looks like not materialising euphoria turns to despair. The latest METO update is the 'best guess' scenario based on all the evidence currently available. It does not rule out a sudden change of direction if, for example, there is a double whammy in the strat. Keep the belief but at least partly base it on reality.

Indeed. We are all guessing in truth, professionals and amateurs alike. Furthermore, we have no control over it all. If we did, we wouldn't have chosen some poor blighters to up the heads in flooded misery. Anyway, lets get back down to the business of discussing the current outputs as merry and happy beings, always looking out for the ideal scenarios of sausage-shaped highs and pulverised PVs. Grub up!

Edited December 25, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[SMU]

UKMO 96

probably the nicest chart of the winter -

I dont actually care if it gets cold - if this image was plucked out of the archives you would think it was a few days before Feb 91 or jan / Feb 56...

 

S

Edited December 25, 2015 by THE CHOSEN ONE

[Duane S.]

It takes zero skill to keep 'forecasting' mild for the UK and get it right the majority of the time, the real skill comes in spotting the signs that will lead eventually to a cold spell here in the UK. I love the ups and downs that go with watching a potential cold spell come to fruition (or more often than not, not!).

We have some really interesting developments going on at the moment and on the way. It may all lead to nothing for here in the UK, but may, just may, be one of those rare times where things actually go our way and delivers some proper cold to our shores as a consequence.

I'm sure a lot of you would agree that the fun is as much about (if not more about) the lead up to the event than the actual event (should it materialise) itself! 

[knocker]

Talking about about a double whammy this is not looking good.

Edited December 25, 2015 by knocker

[booferking]

Thats a site for sore eyes.

[Duane S.]

11 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Happy Christmas everyone.

Under the false pretence of having eaten too much ( whats new!) and feeling like a beached whale I made my get away to the calm sanctuary of the model discussion thread, I'm supposed to be having a lie down and then returning for more food!

Ha ha, brilliant, exactly the same here with me Nick :-) Think I will get away with another 5 minutes or so...

Yep, like you, am pinning my hopes on the MJO here. With other background signals as they are, at the moment, it is probably our best hope. If we can get get enough warmth up towards the Arctic with that vertical plume, what happens next could get very interesting...

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Thats a site for sore eyes.

Yes much better UKMO with the high orientated better and facing the troughing. The UKMO goes from zero to hero in 24hrs!

[SMU]

Ukmo 144

Merry Xmas 

Jan 56

S

[nick sussex]

If the PV could just weaken a little it would be short odds on some fun and games. The key timeframe on that UKMO would come up at T168hrs, as that positive PNA develops in the USA it could help pull some of that PV to the far north westwards, that shortwave will hurtle intowards the UK from the base of the main trough. If you get favourable trough disruption at that point then you can get your woolie hats and ear muffs out of storage!

[booferking]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Yes much better UKMO with the high orientated better and facing the troughing. The UKMO goes from zero to hero in 24hrs!

Whats the odds now of this happening GFS has went the other way in the short term, has the UKMO got a better verification rate than the GFS to any of you experienced posters.