Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[bluearmy]

16 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

I believe it was the UKMO all other modela refused to drop a trigger low SE and had the jet ride over the top. Apart from the ukmo which is what us cold fans hung on for dear life. 

Can't find that in jan '13 although I do recall that ukmo run. 

[Allseasons-Si]

38 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, what do we call the other Geniuses like chiono and GP and Tony though, need to think of some imaginative names.

And Recretos of course, I already thought of one for him though - Einstein.

One for gp...GO PRO

ok,going off topic,sos mods

18z coming out now,look out for that 138hrs kink

Edited December 25, 2015 by Allseasons-si

[Eskimo]

Eyes down for the 18z. 

[Biggin]

6 hours ago, Cloud 10 said:

A nice deep plunge in the AO on today's updated GEFS forecast.

 

 

[pyrotech]

Don't rule out the cold that the GFS has been showing, even if just a transient cold spell

This is really quite feasible as the MJO has moved into phase 6 and heading to phase 7

This is a surprisingly strong phase 6 signal too so Scandi high is exactly what you would expect, with blocking in the tropics  moving eastwards.

So although the models may play with different data over the next day or so, as the starting data fluctuates, do not write a cold spell off. Meanwhile until turn of the year the models continue to show flooding as a main issue along with possible transport / power disruption with strong winds.

I feel the ECM is moving towards a possible brief easterly scenario although it holds very much in the balance at that timeframe.

Pretty much the movement expected with the MJO actually stronger than i would have expected, i believed that the strong El Nino would make phase 6 so weak it would be irrelevant.

All to watch for but no cigar yet

[Liam J]

7 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Took these from http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?type=eps_pluim

earlier

recent

massive cold outliers with some support,lets see if this is a trend on the next few runs/days

 

Crikey! Rather laughable flip from the previous run!! Is it possible for the OP and control to go off on one like that? They do have some support but they are so far away from the mean! Perhaps the myth is true.... Lower data at Christmas  

[Weather Observer]

If I could reminisce for a moment on a day when time allows, February 1956 was one of those events  which got me hooked on cold weather. The blocked pressure pattern and cold easterly wind , but no snow ( I lived in the New Forest) was unrelenting. Rather in the same way that we have had a locked in pressure pattern this month but with the opposite outcome.

I was a child in bed with flu on the last day of January and I watched ice patterns develope on the bedroom window in the early afternoon in what I recall were overcast conditions. I have since read that the temperature fell from about 9c with drizzle in the morning to -2c by early afternoon. 

I am not sure where that leaves us. The 56 event was completely unforecasted. Probably we will get it wrong again this time. But at a week or ten days away, even to get close shows  how much forecasting has progressed. If we are to be wrong let's hope for more snow this time.

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

Not being funny go back a few pages I called this on the 12th Dec...I must be GOD....did it outside pub on back of a fag packet

Good effort and hope your right but its still odds against yet though.

[MR EXTREMES]

Omg watch out for Scandinavia high pressure don't slip further east or south very much seen these charts go wrong many times get these with in t92 and I be very excited 

[Cloud 10]

2 hours ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

6z is old news, hopefully when the 12z GFS parallel updates it will look similar... 

 

It does look similar.

 

 

Lets see what the christmas pub run makes of it.

[Allseasons-Si]

7 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

Not being funny go back a few pages I called this on the 12th Dec...I must be GOD....did it outside pub on back of a fag packet

link pls,i must of missed that.

[Catacol]

3 hours ago, knocker said:

Well yes but we also featured in Tales From the Twilight World, an album by Blind Guardian which is more apt I feel.

Good grief - you listen to Blind Guardian? In a single post your reputation is transformed...!

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

 

It does look similar.

 

 

Lets see what the christmas pub run makes of it.

And @ 264hrs

[bluearmy]

The parallel between the gfs parallel 12z , ECM 12z solution and ECM 12z control beyond day 10 is quite uncanny

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Greenland1080 said:

Joking Feb1991 prob just noticed a great ensemble..I bow to the experts on here an to you mucka cc knocker etc..it's a fantastic learning experience...I am learning off you lot big time

Still learning myself really, wish I could dedicate more of my time to acquiring a deeper understanding of the Stratosphere, GLAAM, the MJO etc and things that affect our winter weather but lack of intelligence and more than that I just don't have the time, I wanted to do a video winter forecast on youtube this year but to do it properly was just going to require too much effort and time.

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

Lol ....I'm the forecaster..joke happy Xmas everyone

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84555-model-output-discussion-1st-december-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=3307304

 Maybe next Christmas

[Cloud 10]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The parallel between the gfs parallel 12z , ECM 12z solution and ECM 12z control beyond day 10 is quite uncanny

 

Shame we don't have access to the parallel ECM to complete the set.

[Allseasons-Si]

8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The parallel between the gfs parallel 12z , ECM 12z solution and ECM 12z control beyond day 10 is quite uncanny

Yes i know,could this be the sudden flip to cold?

we know what happens in these types of scenarios.

[Allseasons-Si]

There is not much difference on the 18z from the 12z @ 144hrs except for the cool pool is slightly further nw toward Greece/Italy and the height's are slightly further north

18z12z

Edited December 25, 2015 by Allseasons-si

[shaky]

Gfs looking better?cold air further west in europe and scandi high slightly further west and north!!

[Allseasons-Si]

Oh!,much better

168hrs 18z

174hrs 12z

Edited December 25, 2015 by Allseasons-si

[bluearmy]

Atlantic jet profile a bit different.  Critical phase of the run next 4 frames. Will it head directly into Iberia or go ne without much of a split? 

[Eskimo]

Energy should go underneath, much better run from the GFS! 

[Allseasons-Si]

The Atlantic train stops there @180,here we go.

that trough is going under @ 192

Edited December 25, 2015 by Allseasons-si

[Daniel*]

More amplification on this run! 

12z

18Z