Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[Methuselah]

8 minutes ago, stewfox said:

This lack of data comes up every year and is refuted every year. someone posted stats recently less 1% and for about 6hrs max i think

You are absolutely right Stew. I only made that post because, whenever the New Year outlook is mild, lack of aeroplane data is always mooted???

[swilliam]

7 minutes ago, Mark N said:

Fascinating, good to see mr murr back on here! ECM a peach. 

ECM ensembles soon?

Actually still not that many supporting the Op - at least the control does

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, swilliam said:

Actually still not that many supporting the Op - at least the control does

 

 

That's a lot better than five minute ago when i checked

[mountain shadow]

5 hours ago, heccygabber said:

Not sure why people are getting so excited, it's 10 days away...1%chance of happening

It's Christmas Day and we have an ECM snow fest chart inside 10 days.

That's why. 

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening all and hoping you are all enjoying your Christmas! The gfs  and ecm show lots of rain and at times stormy weather as we head up to the new year, But perhaps there is a change on the way early into the new year as both models show a strong ridge over Scandinavia. Without going into to much detail, the Atlantic looks like coming up to some massive blocking to the East/North East.  Certainly not a done deal by far , but perhaps at last a big pattern change, Christmas Day has at least given us  Coldies  some festive cheer ......

Edited December 25, 2015 by ANYWEATHER

[bradymk]

Some really frigid temperatures showing just across the water in Amsterdam from tonight's ECM run.

A great xmas day run, still probably the more unlikely outcome obviously but more support brewing...

Merry Christmas everyone, hope you've had a good day.

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

Brady stick a snow icon on that please

Na!,get the cold in first,then the snow

[bluearmy]

The ECM ens get the uppers spread into the North Sea by day 9 but by day 10, they are back to Denmark as the Atlantic pushes East.  .Let's hope that the op and control are leading the way on this. Given the resolution of the ens members is so good on the ECM ens, I'm not happy to see the lack of clustered support. Usually, the suite will swing incorrectly with a duff operational. It's not so often that the ens are so far behind the op but perhaps this is one of these occasions. 

[Paul_1978]

1 hour ago, THE CHOSEN ONE said:

Im here:)

Change yourself back to "Steve Murr"! 

'The Chosen One' doesn't have the same ring to it :-)

[Zakos]

Autumn and winter thus far has been utterly miserable for cold weather fans in low lying areas away from Scotland.

No guarantee of a deep freeze, but i think we are seeing a major pattern change occurring.

At the very least, a disappearance of this horrible euro high/Bartlett set up,and a significant weakening of the polar vortex.

Yes we should be cautious, but the outputs today are by far the best we have seen all winter in terms of potential for sustained cold.

The jet stream is finally starting to head south and the PV is clearly showing signs of weakening. Can only be a good thing ,even if we dont get put in the freezer, anything is better than this horrible euro high set up IMO.

My personal view, is that this winter has had a classic el nino pattern so far, and i feel this will continue - meaning a cold and blocked second half to winter.

I also feel that if we do get sustained cold, the jet stream although likely to track south will still likely be rather strong, and so I expect the Atlantic to attack on occasion providing big snowfall totals in classic battleground scenarios.

All speculation at this stage of course, but the model outputs at the moment are definately trending colder...

 

 

 

 

[SMU]

For those hoping for the holy grail - ala 1991  it really isn't straight forward- although when it comes together it does appear to be really simple-

3 simple steps-

* Scandi High Ridge - plunges deep cold into Eastern Europe ( the train is leaving )

* We need the angle of the high ( supported by troughing along the southern base ) to curve the upper air cold pool WSW into Central Europe ( the train is on its way )

* We need a further amplification of the atlantic to deliver a trigger low - the Angle of the trigger low must be along a jet that's linked like an n shape so it undercuts the high ( the train arrives )

step 3 ^^ is often the stumbling block for the UK with the deep cold stopping very close-

Heres the perfect example- & the second one is when It all went t*ts up

JAN 28th 1956 -  You will note how similar the WAA over the UK is on this link V the T72 chart at the moment

JAN 29 1956

We see the upper High beginning to develop- but more importantly the DEEP cold plunge into Eastern Europe-

move on a day to the 30th & that cold is getting recurved WSW

Note the development of a kink in the jet over the atlantic which is forcing energy underneath

Meanwhile the cold marches into Central Europe

Moving onto the 31st & we have our trigger low sliding SE across the UK

the resultant cold is impressive

-18c is rarely seen in the UK with thickness close to 495 -500 DAM

 

The whole process took 4-5 days post the onset of the ridge, tonights ridge is about day 4-5 so the ECM at day 10 is certainly feesable....

Remember though stage 3 is the difficult one-getting that cold to channel hop

The fail....

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2001/archivesnh-2001-1-31-0-0.png

ridge to svalbard

cold flooding SW towards the UK

no trigger low

no energy going SE

cold missed the UK ( although NE Scotland took a pasting )

S

Edited December 25, 2015 by THE CHOSEN ONE

[ANYWEATHER]

9 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Change yourself back to "Steve Murr"! 

'The Chosen One' doesn't have the same ring to it :-)

Indeed, ! If it was Steve Murr .surely he would not post like this...

[Frosty_wsm]

1 hour ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Just for fun the ECM 240hrs snow on ground chart, quite deep in the north by day 10... 

 

Bah humbug, looks like  scrooge is in control of the weather for us  in the south/south west going by that chart lol

[bluearmy]

13 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

Didn't the ECM op lead the way Jan 13 with the ens clustered till late on then flipping to the op?...are there any archive ECM runs BA?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=1&mois=1&heure=0&jour=5&annee=2013

not as far as I can see greeny - the ops were obviously more progressive re the cold but the ens were in the ball park and quite well amplified in the right area

[Snowman.]

12 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

Didn't the ECM op lead the way Jan 13 with the ens clustered till late on then flipping to the op?...are there any archive ECM runs BA?

I believe it was the UKMO all other modela refused to drop a trigger low SE and had the jet ride over the top. Apart from the ukmo which is what us cold fans hung on for dear life. 

[Liam J]

2 minutes ago, Smartie said:

Bah humbug, looks like  scrooge is in control of the weather for us  in the south/south west going by that chart lol

Lol on that chart the SW is the mildest place in the UK with temps of 6/7c but it's day 10, just posted for fun so don't be disheartened, charts that far out can be quite erratic at times and tend to change around quite often... Also it was a snow depth chart and they really can be way out sometimes! 

[tight isobar]

18z"or not"...

Need from there on in to be noting,  exacting of NW heights locale. 

 

And lowering the eye to any advection of cold westwards! 

However things certainly begin to take momentum in the hunt for a' possible complete differential pattern change!

[SMU]

12 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

 

 

 

12 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Indeed, ! If it was Steve Murr .surely he would not post like this...

it was in response to being coined the chosen one by my favourite poster - I would never call myself that lol

All in jest of course.....

 

your welcome to change my name back

Edited December 25, 2015 by THE CHOSEN ONE

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

18z"or not"...

Need from there on in to be noting,  exacting of NW heights locale. 

 

And lowering the eye to any advection of cold westwards! 

However things certainly begin to take momentum in the hunt for a' possible complete differential pattern change!

Any chance of you posting in English, TI?

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, THE CHOSEN ONE said:

 

it was in response to being coined the chosen one by my favourite poster - I would never call myself that lol

All in jest of course.....

 

your welcome to change my name back

Or even THE SPECIAL ONE.

[Allseasons-Si]

Took these from http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?type=eps_pluim

earlier

recent

massive cold outliers with some support,lets see if this is a trend on the next few runs/days

 

Edited December 25, 2015 by Allseasons-si

[ANYWEATHER]

2 minutes ago, THE CHOSEN ONE said:

 

it was in response to being coined the chosen one by my favourite poster - I would never call myself that lol

All in jest of course.....

Nice one Steve....

[tight isobar]

No worries "ed stone"

Local (locale)

And for ref NE heights. ...

Not the quoted.

Regards. 

[Allseasons-Si]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Or even THE SPECIAL ONE.

Can we have it both ways,THE MURR ONE!

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Can we have it both ways,THE MURR ONE!

Yes, what do we call the other Geniuses like chiono and GP and Tony though, need to think of some imaginative names.

And Recretos of course, I already thought of one for him though - Einstein.

Edited December 25, 2015 by feb1991blizzard