Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[booferking]

Not bad agreement between UKMO & ECM @144

Edited December 25, 2015 by booferking

[SMU]

ECM 144

the cold is heading WEST to central europe - thats 2 steps out of 3.....

wake up germany!!

s

Edited December 25, 2015 by THE CHOSEN ONE

[shaky]

What a 144 hour chart from the ecm!!trough disruption and cold air heading west from europe!!im afraid gfs is out on its own here at the moment!!

[Ali1977]

GFS is on its own, nothing cold to our shores at 144 though. As Ian said, hard to be confident without some more confidence from the METO.

[Geordiesnow]

Thankfully the ECM looks closer to the UKMO than the GFS and whilst it may not be as good as the UKMO in respect it looks like it wants to push more energy against the block, the fact it does not want to start sinking it like the GFS does is a good sign. 

An easterly is an outside bet but as long as you got the building blocks there then theres always a chance and the details are most definately subject to change. 

The ECM does back the GFS more on how deep the lows could be next week which is concerning, not only that but with such warm air still being pumped up then heavy rainfall looks likely especially when it comes up against a blocking high. 

[The PIT]

2 minutes ago, shaky said:

What a 144 hour chart from the ecm!!trough disruption and cold air heading west from europe!!im afraid gfs is out on its own here at the moment!!

Really look pretty similar to me

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

GFS is on its own, nothing cold to our shores at 144 though. As Ian said, hard to be confident without some more confidence from the METO.

Here comes the ECM on board.

Edited December 25, 2015 by feb1991blizzard

[Ali1977]

168 is interesting though, nice to see some happiness in here on Xmas all the same...

[Methuselah]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

GFS is on its own, nothing cold to our shores at 144 though. As Ian said, hard to be confident without some more confidence from the METO.

I agree with both you and with Ian; I refuse to get over-excited about something that - barring 'lack of data due to reduced transatlantic flights' - isn't even remotely likely to occur within 7 days. But if predictions are still pointing in the cold, snowy, blizzardy direction come Sunday, then a few 'yee haws' might be in order.

[booferking]

My eyes are watering don,t know if its the ECM charts are to much Red Wine.

[SMU]

UK into the battle zone - cold air squeezing out the mild at day 8

a lovely wedge over scandi- 

watch the ensembles tumble down tonight....

[bluearmy]

16 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Not sure of the point your trying to make here. I'm only making an observation about what's in the GEFS, didn't realise only Andrej could comment . Perhaps the mods can update the forum rules so I don't transgress again. Sorry if I've misunderstood you 

The question mark was relevant

ian was referring to the strat p/v

i assume you were referring to the trop p/v

and the strat p/v GEFS is something that it seems only recretos posts on

ecm day 8 shows that this remains a fluid scenario with potential

[Geordiesnow]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I agree with both you and with Ian; I refuse to get over-excited about something that - barring 'lack of data due to reduced transatlantic flights' - isn't even remotely likely to occur within 7 days. But if predictions are still pointing in the cold, snowy, blizzardy direction come Sunday, then a few 'yee haws' might be in order.

But the details of each run should not over excite or despair people because the details of each run is likely to change but what is looking more certain, some sort of Scandinavian block will occur with very frigid cold air running down the eastern side of it and there be some WAA heading towards Svalbard but the main questions of will the block sink or not and how much energy there will be from the Atlantic against the block is all open to quite a bit of doubt and because of that, the details of each run will vary. 

I'm not bothered whether the ECM shows an easterly or not, its getting the pieces in place first is the most important bit. 

One thing to note regarding the low pressure system for today and tomorrow is that it ended up becoming quite a shallow feature which the GFS more times than not predicted accurately whereas the ECM went for a deeper low but now all models agree it will be a shallow affair so the GFS is fairly good at some smaller range details like that. 

[SnOwFeSt]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Here comes the ECM on board.

Cripes! I think that is a perfect example of a 'beast from the east'. I think just hope it's still there in a few days and gets far enough west for us. Such depth of cold heading to our shores is very rare indeed. A repeat of '87?!

[Cloud 10]

Game,set and match for the scandi high on this evening's ECM.

 

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, SnOwFeSt said:

Cripes! I think that is a perfect example of a 'beast from the east'. I think just hope it's still there in a few days and gets far enough west for us. Such depth of cold heading to our shores is very rare indeed. A repeat of '87?!

It wont be an 87 this run but a mssive change the last 24 hours allthe same, FWIW I think its too premature, we may just squeeze a battleground in the first half of Jan without a significant mid strat warming but that's doubtfull and a full on Easterly is unlikely before Mid January, I still do believe a period of sustained blocking is very feasible before the winters out though.

[Jason M]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

The question mark was relevant

ian was referring to the strat p/v

i assume you were referring to the trop p/v

and the strat p/v GEFS is something that it seems only recretos posts on

ecm day 8 shows that this remains a fluid scenario with potential

Ok, cool no problem 

My point was as just that what we're seeing in that long range output could be reflecting what Ian was saying as the two are probably linked (albeit trop and strat responses don't always correlate). Re the strat, I get the basics but am no expert so as you surmise I was really just referring to the trop PV. 

Ill take down my last post.

Jason

 

 

[SMU]

Boomage

[radiohead]

A classic battleground deep in FI on the ECM. 

 

All aboard! The train is now leaving the station.

Edited December 25, 2015 by radiohead

[January Snowstorm]

ECM @ 240hrs is incredible.

All routes lead to cold!!

(Cold as in the freezer)

Edited December 25, 2015 by January Snowstorm

[Man With Beard]

2 minutes ago, THE CHOSEN ONE said:

Boomage

Merry Christmas from the ECM! Snow perfection at T240. Atlantic low with easterly source.

[shaky]

Oh my days what a devastatingly cold 240 hour chart from the ecm!!!unbelievable!!!the building blocks start from 96 hours aswell so thats a huge advantage already!!!lets see what the 18z gfs thinks!!

[SMU]

Right im off to enjoy pie face....

remember the kink in the jet at 144 on the UKMO & ECM is crucial for undercutting !!

 

if only there was an ECM 264 tonight...

s

[booferking]

If there was a bank open tonight i would bank the 240 ECM chart haha.

[Snowman.]

GFS drops it only for the ECM to pick it up. Going back to it's old ways.