Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[karlos1983]

Well if the GFS 18z pulls this out of the bag from here, I'll never watch it again because it appears almost impossible. High now feeding in air from the south. That should be game over in this run 

[Harsh Climate]

As I said earlier, People over analyzing a single gfs operational run that has absolutely no support from esembles (that aren't even out yet) This run is one out of 20 perpetrations and could very well be the worst of the bunch! What If we were seeing perpetration 14 for example now and it was howling NEasterlies with -12 uppers?? It would be like yay, what a run!........

When O when will people learn!

[Day 10]

1 minute ago, Danielvn said:

and as usual getting all hyped up about cold weather in FI leads to disappointment. The true cold just never seems to be getting that close.

for all the feelings and torpedoes and other stuff, I genuinely think most on here are just hopecasting with a little agreement from the models in FI.

Have to disagree, for me realistic snow chances have been from around the 12th and no earlier, the models during today have been just fine.

[damianslaw]

Normal service from the models, i.e. ECM and UKMO siding close to one another, GFS traditionally going off on a tangent, though swinging to extremes on occasion.

Best looking at the reliable as always.

The trend is for heights to develop robustly to the NW through next week, which will mean a colder period for all, notably so for the north. Shortwaves, slow moving trough formation etc difficult to accurately predict at any time range - we could see some disturbances to the south preventing those colder uppers from digging all the way down to the south coast, but conversely could pull in a cold NE feed ahead of them and we might end up with the scandi trough phasing with them. Lots of possibilities on a predominantly cold theme.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Jeez GFS is all over the shop. Don't think I've seen this much GFS inconsistency in amongst general consistency amongst the other models

All out at sea

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

4 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Experience will tell you once that starts too happen, then worry and because the 18Z has the initial troughing even further West, it delays and modify the cold air even more, it be umbrellas and raincoats if this run happens, its just simply not cold enough unfortunately. It might eventually turn colder but its FI so detail will change. 

One of the most important detail is in the reliable timeframe(positioning of the trough/trigger low) and I can't see that changing now, my worry is that the models will want this troughing to faff on for ever longer over the UK and you start to think, will the colder air actually ever arrive. The way this winter has gone, I would not bank against the troughing not leaving the UK at all. 

Is this not all reverse psychology or Murphy's law talk though?  I appreciate the law of the sod can and does happen when it comes to cold weather in the UK but I genuinely believe the GFS is struggling here and is out of kilter with the rest of the output.

My local Met Office forecast refers to colder weather and wintry showers as early as Monday which to me seems in line with the majority of tonight's output (GFS aside) and then getting colder as the week progresses.

The ECM mean for the middle of next week (and the UKMO output) looks rock solid for a decent cold spell to me but I guess time will tell...

[nick sussex]

The UKMO have gone with their own raw output in the fax charts!

Surprised about that but nice to see, lets hope the UKMO has got this right.

Edited January 7, 2016 by nick sussex

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Jeez GFS is all over the shop. Don't think I've seen this much GFS inconsistency in amongst general consistency amongst the other models

All out at sea

Yes that's exactly where the cold is heading on this run. 

[Geordiesnow]

4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Thus will most likely be deleted. .

But im sorry gfs is way off the mark...its lagging and miss-evolution is as embarrassing as it gets in data output. ...

Its wobbling terribly of late!!!

Whats your evidence of this out of interest? You saying that because its not showing what you want too see? IF the troughing is spot on for the UK in the short term, it will be the only model that would suggest this with consistency and it would turn out right whilst the ECM/UKMO had us in the colder air sooner which looks like it will turn out incorrect. 

If by some miracle the 12Z UKMO is right regarding the troughing then you would say the Euro models have had the upper hand in this feature. 

Yes its a case of getting the cold in and worry about the details later but is the real cold actually going to come in? You have to have some doubt about that now surely?

[Weathizard]

Going to disregard and await the ensembles. GFS absolutely all over the place at the moment almost feel it's a waste of time even bothering with it.

 

That being said, I think there has been a significant trend away from significant cold within 7/8 days but we will see, nothing is resolved as of yet.

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

As I said earlier, People over analyzing a single gfs operational run that has absolutely no support from esembles (that aren't even out yet) This run is one out of 20 perpetrations and could very well be the worst of the bunch! What If we were seeing perpetration 14 for example now and it was howling NEasterlies with -12 uppers?? It would be like yay, what a run!........

When O when will people learn!

Yes no run should be taken in isolation (least of all this b*ll*cks) but the overall reluctance of GFS to clear the trough East has been a consistent theme and one we want to see the back of tomorrow. A little drama is fine but it has been a very long and frustrating Winter so far - I think some of just want to sit back, get a proverbial cigar on, relax and analyze just how cold and how much snow rather than watching GFS churn out obstacles run after run.

[Allseasons-Si]

Tut!!!

don't get sucked into models post 96hrs,how many times do we all fall for it,the trend is still the same and the wobbles will continue,posts like...gfs is great one day then wright it off another day,same goes to all the suits,yes it's going to get cooler but i feel that patience is again noted

[Cheshire Freeze]

GFS being the GFS

12z

18z

 

[Froze were the Days]

2 continuous GFS runs now that want to make more of that Azores low...wasn't it the GFS first in line not wanting to have the undercut scenario in that potential easterly 10 days or so ago. Just hope the other models all stay in agreement.

[Met4Cast]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The UKMO have gone with their own raw output in the fax charts!

Surprised about that but nice to see, lets hope the UKMO has got this right.

Makes me think that the UKMO must have MOGREPS support/solid ensemble support, I can't see any other reason they would go with their raw output when it was so alone compared to the GEFS and EC ENS. Good news, though. 

GFS is all over the place, pretty sure we can discard it for the time being. Hopefully we see it turn around tomorrow. Wont be completely satisfied until it joins UKMO/ECM though. 

[Daniel*]

3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Thus will most likely be deleted. .

But im sorry gfs is way off the mark...its lagging and miss-evolution is as embarrassing as it gets in data output. ...

Its wobbling terribly of late!!!

The 18z last night experienced a wobble as well before 'correcting' in morning the model is a mess. It does not have a good grip in the mid range I'd take its ouput with great caution the models as a whole struggle with cold spells, GFS especially. Some seek a nirvana, which is frankly ridiculous, if you've been on this forum over years - you will know full well it's never an easy journey.

[Jason M]

Whilst I'm not personally convinced that this cold spell is going to amount to anything noteworthy the pub run just descends into farce IMHO. The ensembles will be interesting this evening.

The idea of a west based set up is very plausible but this run just looks too messy. 

Edited January 7, 2016 by Jason M

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Whats your evidence of this out of interest? You saying that because its not showing what you want too see? IF the troughing is spot on for the UK in the short term, it will be the only model that would suggest this with consistency and it would turn out right whilst the ECM/UKMO had us in the colder air sooner which looks like it will turn out incorrect. 

If by some miracle the 12Z UKMO is right regarding the troughing then you would say the Euro models have had the upper hand in this feature. 

Yes its a case of getting the cold in and worry about the details later but is the real cold actually going to come in? You have to have some doubt about that now surely?

So what makes the GFS 18z more likely to be correct than the UKMO 12z? You use the word miracle in respect of the 12z, but it'd be more of a miracle if the 18z was even close to being right. You speak as though the 18s has this nailed!

[ukpaul]

A key factor is the Arctic HIgh, other major models take it polewards, GFS keeps pushing it back down to Northern Russia. If it's wrong with that then it's ability to help the Greenland High keep its shape is vastly reduced. Given the problems that exist modelling the Arctic area, this inconsistency could be going on for quite some time yet. If it's a model issue then even the ensembles become less useful.

[Mair Snaw]

Its a re run of the Jan 2013 cold spell.... the GFS did this then when a pattern change was upcoming... back then the ECM and UKMO stuck to there guns and after 6-8 runs the GFS started to backtrack and i would bet that by this time tomorrow it will start to creep toward the other two just like it did then...

[snowice]

1 minute ago, Geordiesnow said:

Whats your evidence of this out of interest? You saying that because its not showing what you want too see? IF the troughing is spot on for the UK in the short term, it will be the only model that would suggest this with consistency and it would turn out right whilst the ECM/UKMO had us in the colder air sooner which looks like it will turn out incorrect. 

If by some miracle the 12Z UKMO is right regarding the troughing then you would say the Euro models have had the upper hand in this feature. 

Yes its a case of getting the cold in and worry about the details later but is the real cold actually going to come in? You have to have some doubt about that now surely?

By law of averages your basing your opinion on one model Gfs! It has the worst verification stats of the big 3!so I wouldn't worry however I will be happier to see it change on the 00z as cross model agreement makes me less nervous 

[Geordiesnow]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The UKMO have gone with their own raw output in the fax charts!

Surprised about that but nice to see, lets hope the UKMO has got this right.

I know I keep mentioning this when this pops up but I believe 9 times out of 10 they do anyways and its more or less a fax drawing of their OP run? We will find out by tomorrow morning what will happen with this trough as I can't imagine the disagreement will last any longer than that. 

People say the GFS is inconsistent, well yes it will be later on its output and yes I always take the GFS outputs lightly in its later output as it can often go quite messy and lose the plot so to speak but the reality is the ECM/UKMO are not similar to my eyes and the UKMO has been the inconsistent model today. The GFS has been consistent in the fact the trough could hang around longer than perhaps expected and it looks like this could be the case. 

The west based NAO the GFS is forecasting does need watching as that is a possibility but at this moment in time perhaps something we don't need to worry about and it definately won't happen if the UKMO is right. I wonder who on here now thinks that UKMO 144 hour chart is actually not a bad chart now?

[Day 10]

Liam Dutton Verified account ‏@liamdutton

Colder and, more importantly, drier weather still coming next week. Snowfall detail elusive, but some 'interesting' possibilities!

[radiohead]

Meanwhile, on the 18Z GFS.... -10 air pushing into the north.

 

[Hotspur62]

The problem we had was yesterday and day before there were Boom runs from the models  so expectations were raised when timescales were maybe jut outside the reliable timeframe. However, the Big 4 are still unsure at t96-t120 range and changes will continue for next couple days.

As others have said, lets get the cold in first (crikey we are only on 7th January and have 8-10 weeks of winter left!!) and get the atmosphere colder and drier. Just remember the overall pattern for the UK looks conducive for colder conditions and as GP has been saying consistently the real cold (torpedo cold ) may be a couple weeks ago.in the 5 years I have been learning on this forum it is very rare to get all the models to agree consistently when cold and snow are in the forecast(Late Nov/early dec 2010 was one of those rare occasions). With that in mind just enjoy model watching and don't get too het up if snow meggedon appears and then disappears etc. I want snow as much as about 99% of people and sure it will come.it may just be a little bit later than what we all want.