Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[radiohead]

ECM is backing the GFS at T96. Skinnier ridge, further west.

[Mucka]

ECM close to GFS at 96h. UKMO the odd one out.

[North East Blizzard]

 

 

interesting

[JoeShmoe]

So this morning's models  appear to continue the trend of a West based NAO never really letting any deep cold get to the UK.  It would be very unusual for the models to flip-flop back from here 

 So save for the Midlands northwards  perhaps a few temporary snow events in a short lived cold snap would seem to be the likely bet 

A shame given the Greenland high and the negative NAO but shows yet again how are you need all models to be within T 96 in any UK cold spell

[radiohead]

ECM continues to move towards the GFS at T120. Good agreement now between these models up to this point at least.

Edited January 8, 2016 by radiohead

[Ali1977]

Just shows how good the METO are really, they were all over this change to cooler/cold but never went with a the more extreme outputs over the last few days....Not saying it wasn't possible however. 

Some charts still look good this morning.

[shaky]

Ukmo odd one out am afraid and well done gfs!!!still get some cold and snow before it all goes west based so not bad!!

[terrier]

So the ecm moves towards the gfs output ukmo looks odd one out. So it looks like a 3/4 day cold spell before Atlantic moves back in. Could see a snowy  outbreak further north before we are back into milder air. Looks like met call it  spot on once again. 

[Chris K]

So the met office were saying a colder drier spell followed by a return to a more westerly influence (with uncertainty on when and how) was most likely. I feel the models this morning have started to detail this now.

We are still looking at some colder weather for sure, but I think snow will be in small supply. Wintry showers look possible, but that LP moving up spoils it all to be honest and some transient snow for more northern regions is the way I see this going.

However, I feel we are going to need to wait a little longer to see what happens after this, but its too much into FI at this point really. I do not see a return to anything like we endured in December with the overall pattern changes across the N hemisphere still underway. Our patience really is being tested and frustrating as it may be if it does heads this way, I think we should still be optimistic for the time being unless somehow the overall patterns revert to a more mobile regime.

Be interesting to hear from our resident experts later...

Edited January 8, 2016 by Chris K

[radiohead]

ECM 12Z vs 0Z.

[snowangel32]

Gfs looks to have called this right again it was the first to spot that Azores low which could be a snow maker with a battleground taking place but would more than likely turn back to rain as it pushes north through the UK heralding the end of the cold snap. From now on if the Gfs spots something I will pay more attention. Let's hope for that predicted start warming.

[Mucka]

I did pick this low out early as possibly having a big effect on the output down the line and it now seems it will come into play toward the end of next week but we are a long way from knowing the exact track and depth or the upstream pattern behind it so basically it is a case of all bets off 144+ for the moment .

I won't pretend the output hasnot  gone the wrong way for deep and/or prolonged cold but at the same time many may still see their first snow of the winter soon and I wouldn't be at all surprised if this were the low point and things begin to improve again either from this evening or tomorrow and still quite possible the low will track further South and give a big snow event. The North would see snow on this run.

Edited January 8, 2016 by Mucka

[Ali1977]

5 minutes ago, radiohead said:

ECM 12Z vs 0Z.

Awful grasp of this one!!

[Man With Beard]

Well I never. 36 hours ago we had rock solid agreement from all op runs, GEFS, ECM ens, NOAA, you name it, it had an Atlantic block, if anything it was more likely to topple over the UK than anything else. Yesterday, GFS was the only run showing any great uncertainty. To see the ECM follow it 24 hours later so spectacularly was not something I expected to see. 

Still unwise to call the event - never wise to call it after one run - but clearly looking a chance that the UK may completely miss the significant cold now.

But even so, can this chart really be so ridiculously wrong?

And indeed, this chart cannot be a lost cause either, though a tiny bit dodgy for sure

Edited January 8, 2016 by Man With Beard

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Depressing morning coming in here I think!!

Yep, i said yesterday something was up with the mediocre meto updates and here we are this morning. Now we know why, ecm has compltely flipped overnight, wait to see the ens but that azores low looks wet not white.

[snowangel32]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Depressing morning coming in here I think!!

Yes but at least from here it can't get any worse lol, ECM and GFS give us worst case scenario today but even that still has deep cold and snow prospects especially the further north you are. And you never know the UKMO could be right doubtful but not impossible. 

[radiohead]

At least the ECM ends with some dry cool weather.

[mountain shadow]

No mistaking this is a depressing morning.

However, some saying this is why the Met office are so good, then why are there Fax charts following there own model which appears completely isolated this am? 

[Great Plum]

9 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Well I never. 36 hours ago we had rock solid agreement from all op runs, GEFS, ECM ens, NOAA, you name it, it had an Atlantic block, if anything it was more likely to topple over the UK than anything else. Yesterday, GFS was the only run showing any great uncertainty. To see the ECM follow it 24 hours later so spectacularly was not something I expected to see. 

Still unwise to call the event - never wise to call it after one run - but clearly looking as if the UK may completely miss the significant cold now.

I completely agree - compare and contrast Wednesday's GFS 0z ensembles and this morning's ensembles...

i fear we may have been suckered in a little!

wednesday's

 Friday's

 

what I would say, is that a significant number of ensembles still go cold and the ukmo is still beating the cold drum in the 0z. Let's see where the ECM sits in its ensembles 

Edited January 8, 2016 by Great Plum

[Mair Snaw]

3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

No mistaking this is a depressing morning.

However, some saying this is why the Met office are so good, then why are there Fax charts following there own model which appears completely isolated this am? 

Must admit it is odd that they seem to be following there own model which given this mornings output appears to be the odd one out.... maybe the info they have that we dont see is saying something thats making them follow UKMO runs... would be interesting to know whats going on behind closed doors in Exeter

[Roger J Smith]

However, a few days ago, most of the guidance had this low moving through Britain or France on Monday. Who really wants to bet that it will be within a thousand miles of where it is shown on any of these models eight or nine days from now?

I don't mean to imply that I expect a colder solution because in fact I expect a more mixed pattern then this milder signal even later (like past the ten days of the ECM). And after that milder signal is when I think a more sustained cold pattern could develop. But I have very little faith in the track or timing of this Atlantic low as shown on any model today.

[chris55]

This Azores low has the potential to deliver a lot of snow somewhere depend ding on track and positioning. For me I'd prefer a massive snow storm than cold and dry. However at this range I'd say we need many more runs to sort the eventual pattern.

 

[bluearmy]

One good thing to come out of this episode (at this point) is that the parallel operationals for gfs and ECM seem to be improvements.  Both were not as consistent in supporting the simplicity and central nature of the gratlantic ridge.  Whilst neither can be said to have got this right (we don't know what right will be), had they been the operationals, there would have been rather less of a cold bandwagon. 

Yes, both have chucked out stellar cold runs but not with quite the regularity of the existing ops and the GFSP was first with this mornings trend on its output yesterday. The ecmp also in the ball park on its 12z but that came out too late for me too comment. 

Anyway, high risk = high reward and whilst I agreed with nicks concern re a west based neg NAO, I also didn't mind this potential evolution as at least it brings a snow event to a large part of the UK whereas the original cold modelled northerly flow generally is more isolated in its gift of the white stuff.  

fwiw, the extended ECM ens parallel keeps it cold/ trending cool out to months end (on average) and never brings the ridging from the wsw into play with repeating bursts of Scandi trough. Average uppers never above average out to day 46.  The ec32 fairly similar. 

[snowangel32]

 

1 minute ago, chris55 said:

This Azores low has the potential to deliver a lot of snow somewhere depend ding on track and positioning. For me I'd prefer a massive snow storm than cold and dry. However at this range I'd say we need many more runs to sort the eventual pattern.

 

 

It does but would turn to rain as it pushes North we want to see that low disappear.

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

Given the wild swing in the ECM output overnight (massive differences at a fairly early stage!) I will not be getting too disheartened just yet.

I wouldn't be surprised if this morning's ECM is a mild outlier and that the output later puts more of a smile on the long suffering faces of us coldies.

The fat lady is not even in the building yet!