Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[Mucka]

This run is going to be a big outlier with 2m temps  around the 16th and as far as usefulness is only fit to employ the waste-bin.

The Azores low isn't much of a concern at this stage either as that is modeled differently across the board run to run.

But the overall reluctance of GFS to move the trough East is a slight worry until it comes fully on board.

Hopefully that will start tomorrow and we can get into fun mode.

Edited January 7, 2016 by Mucka

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Makes me think that the UKMO must have MOGREPS support/solid ensemble support, I can't see any other reason they would go with their raw output when it was so alone compared to the GEFS and EC ENS. Good news, though.

GFS is all over the place, pretty sure we can discard it for the time being. Hopefully we see it turn around tomorrow. Wont be completely satisfied until it joins UKMO/ECM though.

I've seen fax charts change frequently. Yes of course its good that they went with their own output but the way each model handles the UK troughing even at T72hrs is different. As for the GFS its getting on my nerves now! Its determined to hang that shortwave so far west. We really don't want to see that, it just makes things more complicated. We need that clearing se as soon as possible.

[Liam J]

Ironically the GFS brings in the coldest air out of all models today! These are the kind of 850's I want to see across other output (minus all the drama)... minus 8 iso down to the south coast, colder than the ECM by day 10  

Edited January 7, 2016 by *Sub*Zero*

[Harsh Climate]

5 minutes ago, Hotspur61 said:

The problem we had was yesterday and day before there were Boom runs from the models  so expectations were raised when timescales were maybe jut outside the reliable timeframe. However, the Big 4 are still unsure at t96-t120 range and changes will continue for next couple days.

As others have said, lets get the cold in first (crikey we are only on 7th January and have 8-10 weeks of winter left!!) and get the atmosphere colder and drier. Just remember the overall pattern for the UK looks conducive for colder conditions and as GP has been saying consistently the real cold (torpedo cold ) may be a couple weeks ago.in the 5 years I have been learning on this forum it is very rare to get all the models to agree consistently when cold and snow are in the forecast(Late Nov/early dec 2010 was one of those rare occasions). With that in mind just enjoy model watching and don't get too het up if snow meggedon appears and then disappears etc. I want snow as much as about 99% of people and sure it will come.it may just be a little bit later than what we all want.   

 

 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Easterly-gate pt2 coming in FI...I can see it coming a mile off

[Geordiesnow]

7 minutes ago, snowice said:

By law of averages your basing your opinion on one model Gfs! It has the worst verification stats of the big 3!so I wouldn't worry however I will be happier to see it change on the 00z as cross model agreement makes me less nervous 

I'm basing my opinion on the fact it now looks like the troughing over the UK will become more harder to shift than perhaps previously thought by the models(apart from the GFS!) What should be the helper low of opening the floodgates to colder air could end being an annoying nuisance spoiler in more ways than one. 

I'll disregard this run in the medium term of perhaps any Azores low coming in and West based NAO as its too far out to know for sure(Although I would not rule one or either occuring) but I am certainly not going to disregard this run on what it wants to do with the trigger low/troughing in the early parts of the run because it does look like it will be correct in the respect of it being slow moving, not sliding away E/SE in any great hurry and proving to be a right nuisance in general. 

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

In my opinion if you like cold and snow, you should be delighted with the output being shown today.

18z GFS aside...and even that run is not terrible...we can say with certainty that it is going to get colder, there is a high likelihood of cold spell (not snap) and there is a significant chance that a large proportion of the UK population will see some snow within the next seven days!

I just don't understand the obsession with getting deep cold over the UK.  We are in early January so the uppers don't need to be off the scale to achieve a decent snowfall.

Hopefully a nice 0z suite in the morning will calm everybody's nerves!

Now where are my thermals?!  

Edited January 7, 2016 by Kentish Snowman

[Harsh Climate]

So at around the crucial period 144h who we going to believe??

 

The ECM with the highest verification stats and getting well into it's range

Stonking!

 

The UKMO that the chief forecaster of the met office has gone with

Belting!

 

Or a single GFS run that has no support and quite frankly looks like a bag of spanners

 

 

Unless the next gfs esembles  are poor I for one am still very happy with the way were headed!

Edited January 7, 2016 by Harsh Climate

[Mark Neal.]

5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Easterly-gate pt2 coming in FI...I can see it coming a mile off

Not this time. All conjecture. That run is a mess throughout. Ensembles watch me thinks. Topples that high over us and then into Low Countries. Cold uppers replaced and Heights lower from Greenland and Atlantic poised. Hmmm'

proof to all! not to look into GFS swings run to run too much. One run had 1050-1055 in 10 days or so, on this run 990-1010mb. 

Edited January 7, 2016 by Mark N

[Hotspur62]

12 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

GFS being the GFS

12z

18z

 

 

 

Amazing the difference in the strength in the HP over Greenland!!. The 18z is just 1 run and lets just see what tomorrow brings.

 

That's enough model watching for me today.

 

Night All !!    

[BlueHedgehog074]

The NOAA anomaly charts continue to to unravel a box a scrumptious oreos for the cold weather enthusiasts. Supports what numerous operational models show with a chance for some chilly conditions to filter down from the North-West/North at times next week and perhaps into the week after. Red dotted lines on chart show clear signs for heights to be above average to our West and North-West in the mid Northern Atlantic - perhaps significantly so around Southern Greenland - with the green contour line showing a big kink in the upper flow around the Atlantic/Greenland sector. Atlantic and Greenland blocking a real possibility at times. And the dip in the upper flow to our East over Europe accompanied by lower than average heights (blue dotted lines) allowing Scandinavian and European troughing to dominate to our East, which could help keep the UK cold and chilly. A scenario essentially where blocking to our West/North-West allowing toughs to drop down from our North/North-West to our East and, with heights also looking to be lower than average to our South-West towards the Azores, there could perhaps be opportunities for Lows in that area to slide underneath the Western/North-Western UK blocking and merge with the Scandinavian/European troughing. While the heights to our East don't look desperately low, the charts don't seem keen on any ridging over mainland Europe. Therefore, I suspect one or two of the operational models today have probably overdone how much these Azores Lows try to pump ridging to the East of the Azores/Tropical Low(s) North-East over Europe meaning a milder flow from the South-West is probably unlikely. And I think even should a ridge get drawn North-Eastwards into Europe and try to bring milder air Northwards through UK, it would probably just be temporary. 

This is what the 6 to 10 day and the 8 to 14 day charts had showed yesterday (I think Man With Beard had posted them as well):

And tonight, there's not really much change:

...which probably means the NOAA is quite confident with the evolution going ahead. In fact, there recent Prognostic Discussion suggests that their confidence is 'above average' http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html

While things could still change, the signs for a cooler or colder spell of weather looks encouraging. The pattern not changing much on both the 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day NOAA charts, so the likely chillier spell next week could last for a fair while. Looks like it would be more than just a standard 2 to 3 day Northerly toppler, too. The blue and purple cold killing machine (Polar Vortex) could have a hard time arising from its gravestone to our North-West. 

I think as one or two people mentioned at some point, wouldn't worry much about the details yet as it's the overall pattern that's the most important. 

(Don't intend for this post to come across as ramp (so apologies if it does), but is just personally how I see it. I note, though, from Mushymanrob about the suggestion of deep cold being unlikely - at least for now. I suppose the kink in the upper flow in the Atlantic would perhaps have to be a little bit more pronounced on the above charts. Plus, the long-drawn North-Westerly upper flow the anomaly charts show over the UK, would probably have to be more from the North or North-East to help squeeze some really bitter air down South-Westwards towards us from the Scandinavian or Siberia area).

Still nice to see, however, for those of you wanting something chillier and perhaps wintrier. 

 

[Geordiesnow]

3 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

So at around the crucial period 144h who we going to believe??

 

The ECM with the highest verification stats and getting well into it's range

Stonking!

 

The UKMO that the chief forecaster of the met office has gone with

Belting!

 

Or a single GFS run that has no support

 

 

Unless the next gfs esembles  are poor I for one am still very happy with the way were headed!

Or another way of putting it... An ECM run which in the early stages are now siding with the GFS regarding the initial troughing perhaps become more reluctant to leave the UK... An UKMO run which is a complete outlier to the rest of the model runs and this morning's 00Z UKMO run or an GFS run which has been consistent with the reluctance of moving that trough quickly enough which delays the cold air flooding in and ends up being more modified?

Regarding what the 18Z shows in the medium term will be subject to change but don't discount this run regarding the troughing because it has been quite consistent with this and people need to realise that. 

That said, by tomorrow morning, there could be a big switch around to this afternoon's UKMO run but that is more out of hope than expectation. 

[bobbydog]

well in FI, the wind is from a predominantly norwesoutheasterly direction...

[ukpaul]

On the NOAA charts note where the center of the high pressure is, over the pole, not over Northern Russia as GFS has it. Other models aren't much better with consistency (and some of the cannon fodder ones really are way off). We need to see the Arctic modelled consistently before anything will start to take its eventual shape.

[mountain shadow]

4 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

Or another way of putting it... An ECM run which in the early stages are now siding with the GFS regarding the initial troughing perhaps become more reluctant to leave the UK... An UKMO run which is a complete outlier to the rest of the model runs and this morning's 00Z UKMO run or an GFS run which has been consistent with the reluctance of moving that trough quickly enough which delays the cold air flooding in and ends up being more modified?

Regarding what the 18Z shows in the medium term will be subject to change but don't discount this run regarding the troughing because it has been quite consistent with this and people need to realise that. 

That said, by tomorrow morning, there could be a big switch around to this afternoon's UKMO run but that is more out of hope than expectation. 

And what about the boys and girls at NOAA?  Do you think they'll be trumped by a pub run too? 

[JOPRO]

Yes the GFS maybe consistent with the slow to clear troughing, but how do we know it isn't being consistently wrong??

 

[Harsh Climate]

Was going to go to bed but have to see these gfs 18z esembles lol

[Mair Snaw]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

And what about the boys and girls at NOAA?  Do you think they'll be trumped by a pub run too? 

Lets put it another way if all the other models were showing Mild weather and the Pub run pulled out a cold run everybody in here would be saying oh its the pub run its off on one dont pay any attention to it as it will never happen... so why are so many people taking it so seriously tonight????

[snowblizzard]

12 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

The NOAA anomaly charts continue to to unravel a box a scrumptious oreos for the cold weather enthusiasts. Supports what numerous operational models show with a chance for some chilly conditions to filter down from the North-West/North at times next week and perhaps into the week after. Red dotted lines on chart show clear signs for heights to be above average to our West and North-West in the mid Northern Atlantic - perhaps significantly so around Southern Greenland - with the green contour line showing a big kink in the upper flow around the Atlantic/Greenland sector. Atlantic and Greenland blocking a real possibility at times. And the dip in the upper flow to our East over Europe accompanied by lower than average heights (blue dotted lines) allowing Scandinavian and European troughing to dominate to our East, which could help keep the UK cold and chilly. A scenario essentially where blocking to our West/North-West allowing toughs to drop down from our North/North-West to our East and, with heights also looking to be lower than average to our South-West towards the Azores, there could perhaps be opportunities for Lows in that area to slide underneath the Western/North-Western UK blocking and merge with the Scandinavian/European troughing. While the heights to our East don't look desperately low, the charts don't seem keen on any ridging over mainland Europe. Therefore, I suspect one or two of the operational models today have probably overdone how much these Azores Lows try to pump ridging to the East of the Azores/Tropical Low(s) North-East over Europe meaning a milder flow from the South-West is probably unlikely. And I think even should a ridge get drawn North-Eastwards into Europe and try to bring milder air Northwards through UK, it would probably just be temporary. 

This is what the 6 to 10 day and the 8 to 14 day charts had showed yesterday (I think Man With Beard had posted them as well):

And tonight, there's not really much change:

...which probably means the NOAA is quite confident with the evolution going ahead. In fact, there recent Prognostic Discussion suggests that their confidence is 'above average' http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html

While things could still change, the signs for a cooler or colder spell of weather looks encouraging. The pattern not changing much on both the 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day NOAA charts, so the likely chillier spell next week could last for a fair while. Looks like it would be more than just a standard 2 to 3 day Northerly toppler, too. The blue and purple cold killing machine (Polar Vortex) could have a hard time arising from its gravestone to our North-West. 

I think as one or two people mentioned at some point, wouldn't worry much about the details yet as it's the overall pattern that's the most important. 

(Don't intend for this post to come across as ramp (so apologies if it does), but is just personally how I see it. I note, though, from Mushymanrob about the suggestion of deep cold being unlikely - at least for now. I suppose the kink in the upper flow in the Atlantic would perhaps have to be a little bit more pronounced on the above charts. Plus, the long-drawn North-Westerly upper flow the anomaly charts show over the UK, would probably have to be more from the North or North-East to help squeeze some really bitter air down South-Westwards towards us from the Scandinavian or Siberia area).

Still nice to see, however, for those of you wanting something chillier and perhaps wintrier. 

 

Fantastic analysis, thanks very much!  

Edited January 7, 2016 by snowblizzard

[Mark Neal.]

2 minutes ago, JOPRO said:

Yes the GFS maybe consistent with the slow to clear troughing, but how do we know it isn't being consistently wrong??

 

By Viewing the ensemble suite and see where op and control sit. Be out soon! 

Edited January 7, 2016 by Mark N

[Geordiesnow]

26 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

So what makes the GFS 18z more likely to be correct than the UKMO 12z? You use the word miracle in respect of the 12z, but it'd be more of a miracle if the 18z was even close to being right. You speak as though the 18s has this nailed!

The UKMO 12Z run is an outlier, the ECM has backed down towards more the GFS set up of having the troughing over the UK for much longer instead of clearing out in the North Sea, and even this morning's UKMO run had a slower moving trough over the UK and the result was something similar to this afternoon's ECM run. 

The disagreements also start as early as 72 hours regarding the positioning of the trough with both GFS/ECM looking closer together than the UKMO positioning of the trough at 72 hours. I'm not saying the 18Z is nailed regarding the medium term of its run(no one will know what will happen at this range) but the problem with a slower moving trough is its delays the colder air to get to us, it creates a larger mild sector consequently we end up with more modified colder air. The UKMO run is very clean and colder air will shoot down to all parts by Monday evening on that run, its a small but big difference and its why I was pleased with the UKMO run but it will be a miracle in respect if both the GFS and ECM backs down now. Its certainly not impossible but unlikely. 

[radiohead]

18Z GEFS ensemble mean backs the 18Z GFS det at T120. Almost identical.

Edited January 7, 2016 by radiohead

[Jason M]

Just now, JOPRO said:

Yes the GFS maybe consistent with the slow to clear troughing, but how do we know it isn't being consistently wrong??

 

We don't is the simple answer 

Hopefully things will become a little clearer by the morning. 

[swilliam]

1 minute ago, radiohead said:

18Z GEFS ensemble mean backs the 18Z GFS det at T120. Almost identical.

err - they are the same?

[ukpaul]

Just now, Mark N said:

By Viewing the ensemble suite and see where op and control sit. Be out soon! 

That's of no real use, it's not its internal consistency that matters, it's consistency as related to other models that we don't have; as I pointed out with regard to NOAA, there is none. That's not to say that GFS can't be right, but it means that someone else must be wrong.