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Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
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Posted

ECH1-240.GIF?24-0

 

I guess, Boom? :bomb:

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Iceberg Seasoned

Iceberg

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

Another cracking run from ecm so a happy boy tonight am I. 

Remember folks this was always set to get going the beginning of jan which is at the moment still fi so just the trends folks just the trends !

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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
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Posted

Christmas is here! :cold-emoji::cold::santa-emoji::drunk-emoji::reindeer-emoji::snowman-emoji:

ECH1-240.GIF?24-0

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Banbury Experienced

Banbury

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
Posted
1 minute ago, shotski said:

Toppler ??? LMAO :yahoo: 

Well at this point it certainly looked like it

ECH1-192.GIF?24-0

I think the above chart is more likely to verify than the 240 one ..................don't you

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shotski Seasoned

shotski

Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
Posted
1 minute ago, Banbury said:

Well at this point it certainly looked like it

ECH1-192.GIF?24-0

I think the above chart is more likely to verify than the 240 one ..................don't you

Agree, just a bit of FI fun...... But let's see. 

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Purga Accomplished

Purga

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
Posted

Now there's a very nice 240hr chart from ECM

ECMOPNH12_240_1.png

That could easily evolve into something formidable given a split vortex and the bulk of the energy on the Eurasian side of the globe.

One to watch -  and BTW Merry Christmas to you all whatever the weather! :ball-santa-emoji:

 

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

#holygrail!!!

I'd be surprised if a setup as extreme as this happened, but if it did this would lead to Atleast a week or more of very cold weather, it would maybe take 36 hours for it to reach us all going off the 850s at 240 though. Great chart to see on Xmas eve anyway. 

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
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Posted
3 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Well at this point it certainly looked like it

ECH1-192.GIF?24-0

I think the above chart is more likely to verify than the 240 one ..................don't you

Yes Marcus but note the ridge coming off ne America - that's going to retrogress the pattern again - and it does !

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
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Posted

ECM has just delivered us the biggest ever Christmas present:yahoo::clapping:

ECH1-240.GIF.pngECH101-240.GIF.png

there is only one way the sauce of air is coming from on that chart,from Russia with love:D

it's fl but what the hell,it's Christmas.:santa-emoji:

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted
10 minutes ago, Mucka said:

ECH1-240.GIF?24-0

 

I guess, Boom? :bomb:

Indeed! That is a beauty!! I'm impressed with the (general) consistency of the ECM. But the big question is: how can this evolve when the PV is supposedly quite strong at the moment??

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

When an output has finished it is out for eternity, which is quite a long time to evaluate. Why guess the next chart before it has happened?

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Banbury Experienced

Banbury

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
Posted
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Absolutely very unstable cold airstream incoming on ecm , the building blocks are there at 144.Against all the odds is a flip imminent?

To be fair D Bett mentioned yesterday of a Northerly in the NY, so maybe this is being watched by the pro's , there latest update is also a tad more encouraging

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Matthew. Seasoned

Matthew.

Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton
Posted
7 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Indeed! That is a beauty!! I'm impressed with the (general) consistency of the ECM. But the big question is: how can this evolve when the PV is supposedly quite strong at the moment??

Is it possible for this day 10 chart given the high strength of zonal wind?

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titchjuicy Apprentice

titchjuicy

Posted
  • Location: Live Saarbruecken, Germany, work in Luxembourg
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy in Winter, Cold and Wet in Summer
  • Location: Live Saarbruecken, Germany, work in Luxembourg
Posted
22 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Well it is Christmas!

Chestnuts roasting on an open fire

Jack Frost nipping at your nose...:snowman-emoji:

I strongly recommend no fellers roasting their chestnuts on an open fire. The risk of short n curly singe is very high.

 

apologies mods.

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Banbury said:

To be fair D Bett mentioned yesterday of a Northerly in the NY, so maybe this is being watched by the pro's , there latest update is also a tad more encouraging

Agreed, naturally i want to see D Brett forecasting heavy snow showers piling in on a stiff NE wind as ecm would progess soonafter.

Ecm dont hack me off when i log on in the morning..

 

Edited by northwestsnow
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January Snowstorm Accomplished

January Snowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
Posted
7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Absolutely very unstable cold airstream incoming on ecm , the building blocks are there at 144.Against all the odds is a flip imminent?

History says yes as it happens all the time. Charts can and do change quite suddenly.

Indeed it's hard to believe but in the year 16/17 we still look to history rather than science to forecast the weather.

30 years ago we could forecast a week ahead and nothing has changed since.

Happy Christmas from Cork!

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
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Posted (edited)

Well...well...well.... what better chart to see me off for Christmas. Won't be posting for a couple of days as it's Christmas and it's time for my family to have my undivided attention. 

Merry Christmas every single one of you fantastic people. I sincerely hope you all have a good one. :santa-emoji:

I'm happy with this!! 

IMG_4768.PNG

Ho ho ho

WOW WHAT A THING OF BEAUTY

Edited by karlos1983
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