Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[Northern Sky]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Nothing verified yet Andy? 

the extended eps very good continuity with the previous suites  - however, a concerning trend for coldies would be a hanging on of a slight high anomoly over w France and n Iberia extended se from the Atlantic . 24 hours ago we had decent low anomolies across to our south. 2 runs later and they are slightly high ones. Remembering that it's the euro high anomolies that have scuppered any chance of advecting proper cold thus far, this isn't a trend we want to see. Mean slp over France is now higher than previous two runs by day 15. 

ian or Matt will have to let you know if the ECM op had any cluster support - the spread on the mean uppers at day 10 indicate that more amplification towards Greenland and troughing in the North Sea are feasible. 

Yes this is a bit worrying. I think we would all do well to keep this post in mind before getting excited about any cold prospects. It's nice to look at some FI eye candy charts but until they get within t72hrs I won't be taking anything for granted.

[Guest]

merry gfs and a happy ecm to you all....im off to have a mince pie a glass of port and then its xmas day for the kids and me... stay safe everybody have fun enjoy and be merry... i can see a wonderful new year coming for us coldies... lots of snow and ice days to come.... ho ho ho ho

[Frosty.]

Merry Christmas to everyone on Netweather and for all the coldies, let's hope for a wintry early 2017..we sure deserve some luck!

[Blessed Weather]

Based on the 12z run the GEFS mean 500 height anomalies for 3rd Jan (T240) suggest high pressure will be situated west of Ireland with no anomaly signal for NW Europe. By 9th Jan (T384) a weak signal for positive heights to the UK's north and with negative heights now appearing over Europe. All a long way off and not long to see if the 18z has a similar view.

[Allseasons-Si]

Cannot believe it's Christmas day already tomorrow,that year went fast

it's been a fascinating four years of model watching for me in here and may it continue

i just would like to wish everyone including the net team a merry Christmas and a prosperous new year

now back to the models

gfs 18z is slightly less amplified at 180hrs but more amplified off the eastern seaboard.

Edited December 24, 2016 by Allseasons-si

[JBMWeatherForever]

The synoptics are really starting to get into the Christmas Spirit now, maybe we will have a New Years resolution from the weather models to provide us with lots of snow for a change, in early January ! Ho Ho Ho!

Merry Christmas and a Snowy New Year to one and all.

[Scandinavian High.]

Merry Christmas everyone looking good for a cold push from the north or east as we move in to January ..

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Nothing verified yet Andy? 

the extended eps very good continuity with the previous suites  - however, a concerning trend for coldies would be a hanging on of a slight high anomoly over w France and n Iberia extended se from the Atlantic . 24 hours ago we had decent low anomolies across to our south. 2 runs later and they are slightly high ones. Remembering that it's the euro high anomolies that have scuppered any chance of advecting proper cold thus far, this isn't a trend we want to see. Mean slp over France is now higher than previous two runs by day 15. 

ian or Matt will have to let you know if the ECM op had any cluster support - the spread on the mean uppers at day 10 indicate that more amplification towards Greenland and troughing in the North Sea are feasible. 

Could that just be another high collapsing completely again though then introducing a NWerly before another bout of slight amplification takes place, this looks like it could be a recurring theme to me for the first half of Jan, in other words no proper HLB but possibilities for snow (even further south) with a constantly NW - SE trajectory jet.

[Allseasons-Si]

This is better than the 12z 240 hrs at 236 hrs,more amplified up the eastern seaboard on this run

[bluearmy]

The NH profile at day 10 in the GFS 18z is promising - if may not look like the 12z ECM but it could well deliver a classic deep fi! 

[swfc]

things look to be on the change!! 18z destroys the pv to our nw and gfs heading towards the ecm option.merry xmas

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Could that just be another high collapsing completely again though then introducing a NWerly before another bout of slight amplification takes place, this looks like it could be a recurring theme to me for the first half of Jan, in other words no proper HLB but possibilities for snow (even further south) with a constantly NW - SE trajectory jet.

just an observation - late November extended eps saw a nw euro upper trough become an upper ridge within four suites! It didn't flip over one run, it drifted for a couple first. 

if it had been one run then it wouldn't have warranted too much comment but it's two and counting. 

[Allseasons-Si]

Oh! gfs you naughty boy,you deliver a trough to the south at 300 hrs,nice.

and then

 

Edited December 24, 2016 by Allseasons-si

[feb1991blizzard]

18z GFS fi is my ideal and most stress free way of getting a big Easterly in, i wish that the run went further because you would see something special but more importantly i hope it verifies.

[feb1991blizzard]

And here she is!!!

 

-12 nearly there and -16c not out the question thereafter, with December North sea temps and low heights, thundersnow and huge PPN rates a strong possibility.

Edited December 24, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[Guest]

Merry bloody christmas

[Allseasons-Si]

WOW

SNOW TRAIN ON THEM CHARTS

I did say it was a better run upstream^,but let's stress,we have a long way to go,hopefully a snowy one

Edited December 24, 2016 by Allseasons-si

[Boro Snow]

Lovely Christmas present from the GFS or should I say happy new year , Merry Christmas everybody 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20161224/18/384/h850t850eu.png

 

 

This his is what I see developing by mid Jan.....perfection.  If it comes earlier like this and it does arrive...great.  Are we seeing an upper strat warming now anyone?

 

BFTP

Edited December 24, 2016 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Man With Beard]

28 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

WOW

 

Can't believe I'm commenting on a D16 chart but hey it's Christmas - There's a trend developing here and I like it. It's the trend where each attempt at the northerly gets better and better until BOOOOOOOOOOM!!

Edited December 24, 2016 by Man With Beard

[feb1991blizzard]

There have been a few near flatliners on the GEFS last few runs, not the stellar ones in my strictest definition (4 days around -10) but very decent,  question is, Is the GFS 18z an outlier? (hopefully not), and if not how many members can we get to produce a similar synoptic but with similar or lower 850s for a lengthier time?  -  I would take 3, as long as the rest aren't mild and at least half are around -5c (flatlining)

[stewfox]

22 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

18z GFS fi is my ideal and most stress free way of getting a big Easterly in, i wish that the run went further because you would see something special but more importantly i hope it verifies.

 uk 18z run ends on-10c 850's over most of uk

I do believe in father Christmas. 

Edited December 24, 2016 by stewfox

[cornish snow]

Yay,thank's Santa(well,until the 0z anyway)

[bluearmy]

5 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

 

 

This his is what I see developing by mid Jan.....perfection.  If it comes earlier like this and it does arrive...great.  Are we seeing an upper strat warming now anyone?

 

BFTP

Not as far as I can see

[carinthian]

5 hours ago, carinthian said:

This is the chart I want to see. Not very often in tandum do you get a huge Canadian Pacific High and Canadian Atlantic/ Maritime high. The Arctic cold wave can then only escape via the Euro / Asian route. If it holds, expect some real winter cold in early days of January 2017, including the British Isles.

C

Still along way off , but nearly perfect chart showing cold wave advecting westwards into the Eastern Atlantic. High block still in place over NE Canada is good to see helping slow down the zonal train.

 C

Edited December 24, 2016 by carinthian