Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[stewfox]

32 minutes ago, Gustywind said:

Surprised it's as warm as they're saying (close to freezing), 850's look pretty cold currently and the polar vortex is stuck over Greenland. Can understand why it was so mild in November and earlier this month, but not now.

Mean temp 80 N is -10c , way above average but nothing like the BBC is reporting

 

[damianslaw]

Will be taking a break from model watching over the christmas period, today's models continue to show mid atlantic heights as we enter the New Year, which in turns brings in some colder uppers from the north, and temperatures probably around the seasonal average, somewhat colder in the north, with chance of snowfall down to low levels I would expect. Let's see what the models are showing in a few days time, but there is a distinct possibility we could be locked into a cold zonal pattern with the jet taking a southerly NW-SE trajectory and heights building to the NE, trough disruption territory.. What does seem apparent is another December with no snow for many - but I'm much more hopeful about January delivering some.

 

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, stewfox said:

Mean temp 80 N is -10c , way above average but nothing like the BBC is reporting

 

Which reflects the poor organisation of the strat p/v early season allowing amplified patterns which give anomolous warm and cold around the polar field. 

Re the T2's on the London eps - good clusters cold early next year but is that settled cold as per next week or cyclonic cold courtesy of scandi or euro trough ?? 

[northwestsnow]

12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Which reflects the poor organisation of the strat p/v early season allowing amplified patterns which give anomolous warm and cold around the polar field. 

Re the T2's on the London eps - good clusters cold early next year but is that settled cold as per next week or cyclonic cold courtesy of scandi or euro trough ?? 

Almost certainly a collapsing mid Atlantic high in my opinion Blue.Although that might not be the end of the story if we see some energy going under, the high might well re-retrogress westwards..

Edited December 24, 2016 by northwestsnow

[bluearmy]

44 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Almost certainly a collapsing mid Atlantic high in my opinion Blue.Although that might not be the end of the story if we see some energy going under, the high might well re-retrogress westwards..

we have not seen all the ens suites (inc Canadian)  predicting euro heights to be lower than average so far this season. That's where we currently are back end week 2

Edited December 24, 2016 by bluearmy

[Ali1977]

23 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

we have not seen all the ens predicting euro heights to be lower than average so far this season. That's where we currently are back end week 2

Lets hope that trend continues and we can get some form of low pressure into the Med, unfortunately we'd still need some heights to get North of Scotland or into the North Atlantic to get some proper cold , never easy in the UK is it!! Lets hope the next EC 32 and GLOSEA monthly has us down for some proper cold as we go through January. 

[Guest]

11 hours ago, Gustywind said:

Surprised it's as warm as they're saying (close to freezing), 850's look pretty cold currently and the polar vortex is stuck over Greenland. Can understand why it was so mild in November and earlier this month, but not now.

 

11 hours ago, karyo said:

Even a sustained northerly may struggle to bring deep cold when the situation in the Arctic is so grim!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-38417198

Very briefly as I'm off to a big family get together in an hour. I noticed this BBC News Report too and it is very misleading and quite exaggerated. It is true that temperatures at the North Pole have very briefly risen to between -4c and -8c for 2 days. They have been more like -16c to -28c for most of December and are set to fall again to below -16c within 2 to 3 days and to as low as -28c again within 4 days. Here is a link to the current surfaces temperatures and those forecast over the next 2 weeks.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=6&mode=9&carte=1

Those who follow my full weekly reports on here will know that I have a regular feature on Arctic sea ice extent, Arctic surface temperatures and a special close-up appraisal of Svalbard current and forecast temperatures You can go to my last report on page 167 where all the links are "live" and you can check on all the latest data. This will show that the record low ice extent has made a rapid recovery during December to only just below the record low of 2012 (it was well below) and it looks like it will overtake that during the next week or so. Earlier in December Svalbard recorded it lowest temperatures for nearly 3 years and fell to below the 30 year mean which is very rare these days (the mean max is around -12c to -14c for late December). Maximum temperatures recovered to around 0c last weekend but have fallen back since then and are forecast to fall to minus double digits during the next few days and beyond. In fact, "if" we do get a brief Arctic airstream in early January, the surface temperatures and 850s up there at that time will be a fair bit lower than we saw during the few brief northerlies that we had last Winter. Unlike last Winter, the jet stream has not been barreling into our part of the Arctic for weeks on end. Whilst it is completely true that we are seeing generally much higher than average temperatures in the whole of the Arctic throughout the year and climate change is having a serious impact, the focus from this news release on just 2 days is completely out of context. The highly respected scientist has been misquoted from her excellent long-term research into Arctic warming and will probably be very unhappy about it. It is simply another BBC news grabbing headline during a period of little news breaking today. If they had covered an overall report on the longer term warming in the Arctic it would have been dramatic enough without the need to sensationalise it and misquote it.

EDIT (see post below):

Hi again Karyo, you just caught me in time. Please look at the link I have given to current and near term forecast Arctic surface temperatures (as well as those for Svalbard on my page 167 post). The very brief warm up during the last few days (with mild south-westerlies reaching towards Svalbard and into much of the Barents Sea) is almost over. The much lower forecast surface temps during the next few days and up to 2 weeks out will allow the strong sea-ice recovery to resume. I estimate a week or so until it gets above the 2012 level but it might take 2 weeks. I'm not predicting further ahead than that and there could be a reversal again if the Canadian lobe of the PV strengthens again and another North American cold snap rejuvenates the jet again and it takes a north-east path through Iceland and beyond. With all the huge uncertainties into early January, expect the unexpected! The new sea ice is very thin and may not get a chance to thicken sufficiently to protect itself from any warmer incursions later in the season.

EDIT 2: Sorry Polar Maritime but I was responding to a post on this thread and with the models hinting at the possibilities of a brief northerly in a week to 10 days time, temperatures up there might be crucial for us down here given a marginal pattern and the difference between rain and sleet or snow for low lying locations. My link above is to a current GFS model chart albeit for Arctic 2m surface temperatures and I could easily have added a pressure chart to go with that but these have already been posted quite a few times afternoon. This is therefore, IMHO, very complementary to what to look out for in the models. 

Edited December 24, 2016 by Guest
To answer Karyo

[karyo]

11 minutes ago, Bring Back1962-63 said:

 

Very briefly as I'm off to a big family get together in an hour. I noticed this BBC News Report too and it is very misleading and quite exaggerated. It is true that temperatures at the North Pole have very briefly risen to between -4c and -8c for 2 days. They have been more like -16c to -28c for most of December and are set to fall again to below -16c with 2 to 3 days and to as low as -28c again within 4 days. Here is a link to the current surfaces temperatures and those forecast over the next 2 weeks.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=6&mode=9&carte=1

Those who follow my full weekly reports on here will know that I have a regular feature on Arctic sea ice extent, Arctic surface temperatures and a special close-up appraisal of Svalbard current and forecast temperatures You can go to my last report on page 167 where all the links are "live" and you can check on all the latest data. This will show that the record low ice extent has made a rapid recovery during December to only just below the record low of 2012 (it was well below) and it looks like it will overtake that during the next week or so. Earlier in December Svalbard recorded it lowest temperatures for nearly 3 years and fell to below the 30 year mean which is very rare these days (the mean max is around -12c to 14c for late December). Maximum temperatures recovered to around 0c last weekend but have fallen back since then and are forecast to fall to minus double digits during the next few days and beyond. In fact, "if" we do get a brief Arctic airstream in early January, the surface temperatures and 850s up there at that time will be a fair bit lower than we saw during the few brief northerlies that we had last Winter. Unlike last Winter, the jet stream has not been barreling into our part of the Arctic for weeks on end. Whilst it is completely true that we are seeing generally much higher than average temperatures in the whole of the Arctic throughout the year and climate change is having a serious impact, the focus from this news release on just 2 days is completely out of context. The highly respected scientist has been misquoted from her excellent long-term research into Arctic warming and will probably be very unhappy about it. It is simply another BBC news grabbing headline during a period of little news breaking today. If they had covered an overall report on the longer term warming in the Arctic it would have been dramatic enough without the need to sensationalise it and misquote it.

hi Bring Back,

 

thanks for the information. Why do you think that the current extent will overtake the 2012 extent soon? There have been loses in the last few days.

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

[Polar Maritime]

Please use the dedicated sea ice threads for any further discussion, And continue with Model Output Discussion.

Thanks, Please continue.

Edited December 24, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[Methuselah]

So...with 850s (at least initially) between, say 4-9C and with fairly tight isobars, tomorrow really doesn't look like being anything to write home about...But - at least it'll be mild!

[karyo]

The 12z GFS is slightly less amplified than the 6z but it still manages to give us a toppler on New Year's Day.

[Summer Sun]

High pressure will bring a quiet end to the year with variable cloud amounts as next week goes on

Unable to post t96 from wetterzentral due to a fault with the chart

[Methuselah]

Maybe an outside chance of seeing a snow-grain at T+210...?

[Singularity]

The roundest high on record? 

So far this and the UKMO 12z are the only sources of much cheer from the 12z runs so far, the latter much more seriously of course.

MJO products don't match some of the recent analysis (e.g. by Nick F yesterday) at all with the supposed eastward propagating Pacific wave so who knows what's really going on. 

Time to go and restore my merriness 

Edited December 24, 2016 by Singularity

[Methuselah]

And there's still a (albeit marginal) chance of an Orthodox White Christmas...T+336!

[karyo]

A very pleasing FI despite the absence of northern blocking! The high becomes our friend for a change by allowing cold incursions from the northwest.

[ArHu3]

5 minutes ago, karyo said:

A very pleasing FI despite the absence of northern blocking! The high becomes our friend for a change by allowing cold incursions from the northwest.

end of gfs is beautifull, though 240h to deep in FI

 

Edited December 24, 2016 by ArHu3

[Methuselah]

Is that a fully-fledged Scandi-High I see - in its usual place of T+384? If only!

[The PIT]

Didn't we have an easterly at one time in deep fi for xmas at one time.

At least we could look forward to some frost on the ground this week. Possibly long term we may see just below average temps as the winds swing more westerly if FI comes off.

[ArHu3]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Is that a fully-fledged Scandi-High I see - in its usual place of T+384? If only!

scandi high and genua low, not seen since 2013

[legritter]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Is that a fully-fledged Scandi-High I see - in its usual place of T+384? If only!

Yes a sandy high from gfs ,I mean Scandi,  a present from the models ,but will it get delivered, things still looking good and v interesting , expect gfs to give many chalk and cheese runs ,cheers gang catch you all up later 

[knocker]

Says it all really. The perpetual phasing of the cold/warm air within the long wave pattern with the strength of the energy emitted upstream (strong jet) neutralizing any permanent block and limiting the UK to cold incursions from Pm NWs which may of course include brief northerlies as systems track E/NE

Down checking on Sidney earlier and he was just digging up his winter store. Be afraid; be very afraid.

Edited December 24, 2016 by knocker

[Scandinavian High.]

happy Christmas everyone ..

Edited December 24, 2016 by abbie123

[bluearmy]

The gefs drop the euro heights again but this time build the high anomoly more nw

eyes down for the ecm - will it follow the cluster with the griceland ridge or the w of Ireland surface high ??

[Daniel*]

A plethora of interesting winter synoptics - out in FI in the ENS.