Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[carinthian]

This is the chart I want to see. Not very often in tandum do you get a huge Canadian Pacific High and Canadian Atlantic/ Maritime high. The Arctic cold wave can then only escape via the Euro / Asian route. If it holds, expect some real winter cold in early days of January 2017, including the British Isles.

C

[Methuselah]

10 minutes ago, Changing Skies said:

A plethora of interesting winter synoptics - out in FI in the ENS. 

And I bet that, just as night follows day, the two that stand-out for me are the two least likely to happen!

[Iceberg]

Busy but had a quick look so far. Nice snowy full of promise run from gfs. For me though I like the meto t144. Fits perfectly with a greenie high as per the ecm from this morning. 

A good ecm please and I can go to bed waiting for santa a happy chappie 

Edited December 24, 2016 by Iceberg

[knocker]

16 minutes ago, carinthian said:

This is the chart I want to see. Not very often in tandum do you get a huge Canadian Pacific High and Canadian Atlantic/ Maritime high. The Arctic cold wave can then only escape via the Euro / Asian route. If it holds, expect some real winter cold in early days of January 2017, including the British Isles.

C

Some of it seems to be escaping down into North America

[Banbury]

Northerly incoming ???

[carinthian]

16 minutes ago, knocker said:

Some of it seems to be escaping down into North America

Ay Knocker, its been very cold for sometime now over British Columbia and Alberta especially. Very different to last year when the cold was much further South and East.

C

Edited December 24, 2016 by carinthian

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Banbury said:

Northerly incoming ???

Could go in several directions Marcus! 

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Could go in several directions Marcus! 

Wont first time round blue, will need another bite, to much forcing from canadian lobe.

[Banbury]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Could go in several directions Marcus! 

Indeed, I feel if ECM offers a Northerly it will be brief

[Dennis]

If this is happen things for cold air are open to come south

[Banbury]

Toppler

[Singularity]

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/ecm/168_mslp500.png?cb=910

The low off the US seems to have a very good profile for driving WAA up the west flank of the ridge. If only the warm air was far advanced enough north to do a good job!

Instead it pumps up the high while it's S of Greenland - but if not rule out enough of an undercut from the Russia/Scandinavia vortex lobe to 'prop up' the toppled ridge for a time, allowing us to make about as much use as we can if the wedge of cold air imported.

Edited December 24, 2016 by Singularity

[northwestsnow]

Looks better than gfs 192 and gfs fi was tasty, things might be getting interesting this evening!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks better than gfs 192 and gfs fi was tasty, things might be getting interesting this evening!

FI likely though missing data over Xmas! 

[radiohead]

Impressive...

[Johnp]

Epic ECM 240 chart on it's way I reckon....?

[Mucka]

Ah yes the day 10 FI wowzer on its way.

One day, one day...

[Nick L]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

FI likely though missing data over Xmas! 

Not this old chestnut again...

[shotski]

8 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Toppler

Looks like a decent Mid Atlantic Ridge to me, the only thing toppling is the temperature 

[northwestsnow]

Ecm is going down the cold route! The 240 surely has to show a Greeny high!

[Dennis]

cold weather ahead EC12z

[Matthew.]

Ones thing for sure. The Atlantic won't break through that block easily. A hefty HP. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, Nick L said:

Not this old chestnut again...

only a joke chill Nick!

[Mucka]

Just now, Nick L said:

Not this old chestnut again...

Well it is Christmas!

Chestnuts roasting on an open fire

Jack Frost nipping at your nose...

[northwestsnow]

Exciting!!!