Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[Iceaxecrampon]

34 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Christmas is here! 

GFS not on board till the 5th Jan and that's at T+276

Humbug Mr Baldrick?

All the Best Everyone.

Edited December 24, 2016 by Iceaxecrampon

[snowice]

Great ECM Steve Murr will be pleased the output looks good,  loads of great model watching in the coming week. 

Merry Christmas to. . All members

[karyo]

Awesome Xmas present from the ECM! It may be gone by tomorrow morning but let's just enjoy it tonight.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, karyo said:

Awesome Xmas present from the ECM! It may be gone by tomorrow morning but let's just enjoy it tonight.

I can see us in the NW Thread watching the radar as the snow showers pile in on frigid NE wind ala ECM, the pv is sliced up beauutifully!!

[Ali1977]

8 minutes ago, Changing Skies said:

Santa has decided Knocker has been a bad boy.  

Would be good to hear from mr fergie? 

Lets see if it's supported by its ENS.

[karyo]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

I can see us in the NW Thread watching the radar as the snow showers pile in on frigid NE wind ala ECM, the pv is sliced up beauutifully!!

That would be awesome! I haven't been in the NW thread since last winter. lol

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Lets see if it's supported by its ENS.

The ens will not be cold, not the short ones..:)

Edited December 24, 2016 by northwestsnow

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

The ens will not be cold, not the short ones..:)

Indeed but lets see if the extended fall off the cliff aka 2009/10

[northwestsnow]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

Indeed but lets see if the extended fall off the cliff aka 2009/10

Yes we will want to see some cold clustering longer term, im confident we will.

[Zakos]

.         Probably the best anomaly I've seen from the ECM all winter.... Wow.... what a turn around in the output just in time for Christmas!! Will this repeated on tommorows output ? Fingers crossed, looks very encouraging to me.

[Cheshire Freeze]

47 minutes ago, Purga said:

Now there's a very nice 240hr chart from ECM

That could easily evolve into something formidable given a split vortex and the bulk of the energy on the Eurasian side of the globe.

One to watch -  and BTW Merry Christmas to you all whatever the weather!

 

That chart is GP's December thought a few weeks delayed.  Troughing either side and a ridge straight through the middle. 

[Jason M]

The ECM actually isn't that cold a run. 850s in the -4 to -6 range (tilted more at -4c) and with the 240 chart they are in the 0 to -2 range. At ground level 3-6c I'd have thought given the fact that its a modified airmass (due to sea track). Presumably colder uppers would follow after 240.

Northerlies often look dramatic on the charts but taking this run in at face value (and I know it won't verify exactly) joe public would just think of it as a few coldish days with accompanied ice scraping in the mornings. I'm not saying that nobody would see snow, but its not what most peeps in here are looking for IMHO.

Get a NE tilt and things become more interesting (as per a few of the GEFS), but really that's all out in FI where all the good stuff has remained for the last three years.

More runs needed

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Daniel*]

23 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Lets see if it's supported by its ENS.

Indeed well the ENS have been clustering cold lately.  

 

[Allseasons-Si]

29 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

That chart is GP's December thought a few weeks delayed.  Troughing either side and a ridge straight through the middle. 

I just ran the ecm run through again and do you know what i like about it!,from 72hrs to 240hrs it keeps a shortwave/low over the Azores islands to stop that high from sinking.

Edit:in fact most of the 12z suit to some extent keep this feature,so something to keep an eye on.

Edited December 24, 2016 by Allseasons-si

[Allseasons-Si]

Mean ecm at 240 compared to yesterday's 12z mean,not much difference although the pv segment is weaker over N Canada on today's

 

[Ali1977]

De Bilt ENS showing the colder weather from the high but as they only go to day 10 it's hard to see if any support is there for the Op and beyond 

[Penrith Snow]

Wouldn't it be ironic if we got a very cold spell in early January when all the background signals are poor!

In early December all the background signals were great and we ended up with a three week Euro Slug.

Its the last time I listen to all that MJO, zonal wind, Strats, QBA, etc nonsense, in the 1960's all that waffle didn't exist we just had the BDC............Bloody Damn Cold!

Andy

[Blessed Weather]

Well maybe there is a Santa? Today's 12z model output has certainly been a great boost to those of us who like a taste of winter with the chance of seeing some white stuff! Nice to see the GEFS 12z 850 hPa tables ending the run with just 2 or 3 members out of 20 with positive 850 temps for London and 50% with temps below -5C. Let's hope the 18z keeps up the festive cheer!

 

[Matthew.]

6 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

Wouldn't it be ironic if we got a very cold spell in early January when all the background signals are poor!

In early December all the background signals were great and we ended up with a three week Euro Slug.

Its the last time I listen to all that MJO, zonal wind, Strats, QBA, etc nonsense, in the 1960's all that waffle didn't exist we just had the BDC............Bloody Damn Cold!

Andy

Yes I was thinking it does seem odd with the signals. Future runs will be more interesting than ever.

 

Edited December 24, 2016 by Matthew Wilson

[bluearmy]

14 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

Wouldn't it be ironic if we got a very cold spell in early January when all the background signals are poor!

In early December all the background signals were great and we ended up with a three week Euro Slug.

Its the last time I listen to all that MJO, zonal wind, Strats, QBA, etc nonsense, in the 1960's all that waffle didn't exist we just had the BDC............Bloody Damn Cold!

Andy

Nothing verified yet Andy? 

the extended eps very good continuity with the previous suites  - however, a concerning trend for coldies would be a hanging on of a slight high anomoly over w France and n Iberia extended se from the Atlantic . 24 hours ago we had decent low anomolies across to our south. 2 runs later and they are slightly high ones. Remembering that it's the euro high anomolies that have scuppered any chance of advecting proper cold thus far, this isn't a trend we want to see. Mean slp over France is now higher than previous two runs by day 15. 

ian or Matt will have to let you know if the ECM op had any cluster support - the spread on the mean uppers at day 10 indicate that more amplification towards Greenland and troughing in the North Sea are feasible. 

Edited December 24, 2016 by bluearmy

[knocker]

tonight's anomalies are in pretty good agreement upstream. The twin vortex Canada and Siberia (dumbbell with the Russian) split by the Aleutian ridge and with troughs orientated SW and SE from the Canadian vortex and quite a strong westerly upper flow across central and southern North America with one arm of the jet swinging NE across the Atlantic. How far north this tracks is rather dependent on the orientation and strength of the HP in mid Atlantic They all vary somewhat on the strength of anomalies and the orientation of the ridge although the percentage play is W.SW of the UK, Ergo the southern half of the UK once more getting the better of the weather with systems tracking around the HP and impacting the north.So in general we are looking a NW upper flow with the usual caveats applying regarding possible brief northerly incursions as systems track east the south east. Temps around average but obviously can dip in the incursions. (still no anomalies on the ecm)

No significant changes in the 10-15 period with ridging still to the SW so still a W/NW upper flow with the trough to the east still tantalizingly close orientated south then south west over Iberia. Still leaves up in the air the various possibilities 

Edited December 24, 2016 by knocker

[Mucka]

1 hour ago, Jason M said:

The ECM actually isn't that cold a run. 850s in the -4 to -6 range (tilted more at -4c) and with the 240 chart they are in the 0 to -2 range. At ground level 3-6c I'd have thought given the fact that its a modified airmass (due to sea track). Presumably colder uppers would follow after 240.

Northerlies often look dramatic on the charts but taking this run in at face value (and I know it won't verify exactly) joe public would just think of it as a few coldish days with accompanied ice scraping in the mornings. I'm not saying that nobody would see snow, but its not what most peeps in here are looking for IMHO.

Get a NE tilt and things become more interesting (as per a few of the GEFS), but really that's all out in FI where all the good stuff has remained for the last three years.

More runs needed

 

 

 

 

 

 

Looking at 850's 10 days out is a waste of time except for a bit of fun.

It isn't about the day 10 chart anyway, it is about what is around the corner from that chart if it verified.

We actually couldn't wish for a much better chart if we want cold and snow in early January as that trough would dig SE and winds swing NE with - 8/12 uppers, snow and ice days pretty much a certainty from there.

Edited December 24, 2016 by Mucka

[stewfox]

Merry Xmas everyone

So reviewing the last 24hr

Yesterday evening inc pub run

Joe B's, Judah Cohen and Michael Ventrice and others tweet they are all in agreement about us entering a cold period come the start of Jan.

More colder blocked options appearing on 18z Ens so not over until the fat lady sings (she has been back stage for 6 weeks now)

SM reminds folks it all low amplitude stuff so more Amps required to lighten things up

Pub run ends with discussion over if we can gets snow in Saraha we can get it here.

Morning

Not a good start to the day from Gfs, its pretty much cancelled even the toppler!

Folks reminded wet wind mild for Christmas day, mother in laws can be visited.

However ECM is more amplified and 192 is an improvement on GFS and its clear from the start ECM wants to be in the spot light today, it’s a cracker with reinforced Atlantic amplification thanks to our Canadian friends Mr Vortex

At 144T UKMO has pretty good vortex split and more like ECM.

GFS has picked up an idea and dropped it , wearing flip flops again not joining the party.

Afternoon

Not a lot of discussions as folks start their Christmas shopping.

6z is slightly more amplified, moving towards ECM is it going to join the party.

Up to new year high pressure will bring a quiet end to the year with variable cloud.

Unsettled, often cold start to the New Year to start but for how long brief northerlies or something better.

GFS 12z shows interest deep into FI (T240) and discussions around wether BBC is bias.

Evening (pre pub run)

Eyes down for ECM

ECM 12 z boom chart for 3/1 T264 would be epic

unstable cold airstream incoming on ECM , the building blocks will all charts show a flip.

Would the ECM even in FI give us anything better the ice on the car ? GEFS support some more tilt NE which could support more of the good stuff (snow)

 Day 10 indicate sight of more amplification towards Greenland is feasible.

Cold 4/10 (2 for potential and  is 3/1/17 the new buzz word)

Key today ‘potential’ not 'sustained' and more amplification required

Hansom, pretty models (end November) became Scumbag faggot , punk into December but bells ring out for Christmas day. what will GFS show us tomorrow ? 

 

Edited December 24, 2016 by stewfox

[Iceberg]

Last one from me tonight. I've been santa and laid out all the kids presents but wanted to check out the ecm ens averages. 

A real sight of beauty on the t240 chart. Again as always draw a line from us to Alaska. On the east side we had the pv and low pressures on the west upstream, we have the pressures at 1015 or above and no pv to speak of. 

A classic high delivering chart imho.  

[Methuselah]

Well, folks, I guess, what with all the models in agreement - Snowmageddon is nigh - it's time bid you all good night, a merry Christmas and a happy New Year...All we need hope for now, is that Santa doesn't make a return visit and take back our meteorologic presents...